2026-01-03T19:02:17.332Z
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- Venezuela is now sitting on 303 billion barrels of oil.
- What happens to that stockpile could impact global crude oil prices.
- Prolonged fluctuations in oil prices impact what everyday Americans pay at the pump.
Following the US assault on Venezuela, all eyes in the market will shift to what that means for the 303 billion barrels of oil the country is sitting on.
The price of crude oil will be top of mind, as it’s what will most directly impact everyday Americans, in the form of what they pay at the pump.
The commodity doesn’t trade over the weekend, but any future price action will likely be driven by how the situation with Venezuela impacts the world’s overall oil supply.
Three key considerations suggest the impact on oil prices will be muted in the near term:
- Although Venezuela is now sitting on so many barrels of oil — a fifth of the world’s reserve — it presently accounts for less than 1% of daily global crude production
- Reports say Venezuela’s oil infrastructure wasn’t impacted by the series of US attacks, minimizing any potential disruption
- The global oil surplus is expected to reach a record in 2026
Trump said Saturday that the US will look to tap Venezuelan oil reserves. This increased production could push already-depressed crude oil prices even lower.
As shown in the chart below, crude oil has fallen sharply since the start of last year.
Any US companies that start drilling in Venezuela will face a catch-22: The more oil they add to the world’s existing surplus, the further prices will fall, and the less profit they’ll reap for their drilling efforts.
How they decide to proceed will ultimately shape the price of oil — and what normal consumers pay to live their lives.