A vote to approve a major trade deal between the European Union and several South American countries is to take place on Friday, teeing up a politically tricky decision for the Government about whether to risk infuriating beef farmers or lose standing in Brussels.
Ambassadors from each of the EU’s 27 member states will vote in Brussels on whether to back or reject the Mercosur trade agreement, with momentum believed to be swinging behind the deal being approved.
The Italian government is reported to be leaning towards backing the trade deal, which would secure a large enough majority inside the EU to see the agreement approved, regardless of the opposition from France, Ireland and Poland.
Government sources said Italy would be the “decisive vote” the deal’s approval swings on.
Irish beef farmers oppose the EU-Mercosur deal because they fear they will be undercut by unfair competition from cheaper South American beef.
The deal, which is more than 25 years in the making, would lower barriers to trade between Europe and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, opening up big new markets for either side.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm that negotiated the deal, has insisted any knock-on impacts will not be as bad as beef farmers fear. Extra safeguards have been worked into the agreement to give the EU powers to reimpose import duties if South American beef ends up flooding any part of the market and tanking prices.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to travel to Paraguay to sign the deal on January 12th if the EU’s national capitals give the green light in the coming days.
[ Q&A: What is the Mercosur trade deal and what does it mean for Ireland? ]
Geopolitically, the commission views the deal as Europe’s response to the instability caused by US president Donald Trump’s tariff agenda by broadening economic ties to other regions.
The support of a qualified majority of member states is needed for the EU to approve the trade accord.
The crunch vote had been planned for December, but was postponed to give Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni more time to settle on a position. Bloomberg reported on Monday that the Italian government appeared set to back the trade pact.
The Irish Government will have to take a decision on what way it will cast its vote between now and Friday.
Voting to reject the trade deal would likely damage Ireland’s standing with the commission and pro-Mercosur governments. However, siding with a majority backing the deal would draw the ire of farming organisations domestically as well as rural Independent TDs supporting the Government.
[ Ratifying the Mercosur deal is a no-brainer ]
Minister of State at the Department of Agriculture Michael Healy-Rae said the Programme for Government committed the Coalition to work with like-minded countries to oppose the Mercosur deal.
“If there were no other like-minded countries, I’d still like us to stand on our own in voicing our opposition … even if we were the only soldier standing,” he said.
The Independent TD for Kerry said the agreement would be “detrimental to the beef sector” and said Ireland should not be afraid of blowback from Brussels.