Quarterfinal action takes place Friday at the ATP Hong Kong Open, and it’s one of the best quarterfinal lineups the tournament has ever seen. Top seed Lorenzo Musetti will face a hometown hero to open the day’s matches, with higher seeds Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik taking the court in interesting matchups. As always, LWOT predicts the matches. Who will reach the semifinals?
ATP Hong Kong Quarterfinal Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges
Head-to-head: Rublev 2-0
Rublev’s firecracker of a forehand is quite effective on Hong Kong’s quick courts, and he proved that in a come-from-behind win over Yibing Wu. Borges is a tougher opponent for the No. 3 seed, but Rublev dominated both of their matchups on hard courts. Borges is yet to drop a set this week, notably taking out former Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic on Thursday.
If Rublev can control his powerful groundstrokes, there’s not a ton Borges can hurt the higher ranked player with. The 2024 Hong Kong Open champion should win this.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Juncheng Shang vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: Shang 2-1
This match is arguably one of the popcorn matches of the week. Bublik will complete a stunning rise to the Top 10 with a tournament win in Hong Kong, while Shang has cruised past consecutive Top 100 players this week–coming off a brutal 2025 injury. Bublik’s shotmaking is always a fun watch, though he was notably consistent in his Hong Kong opener. He hit only 17 unforced errors against Botic Van de Zandschulp and saved all the break points he faced.
Shang’s lefty game will have to outwit Bublik, and he can’t miss too many first serves. The Kazakh has a streaky, but powerful serve that could put Shang on the back foot. While the crowd favorite will make this match close, Bublik’s weapons should be the decisive factor.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
Marcos Giron vs Michael Mmoh
Head-to-head: Mmoh 2-1
Two Americans on the other end of the globe will battle each other for a crucial ATP 250 semifinal spot. For Mmoh, a win on Friday would already surpass his Tour-level win total of 2025, and would mark his first-ever semifinal. Giron made six ATP 250 quarterfinals in 2025, but was unable to go any deeper.
Giron looked impressive in his two matches, most recently taking out defending Hong Kong champion Alexandre Muller 6-4 7-6 (4). Yet, Mmoh stunned World No. 17 Karen Khachanov in his second round match, and now has four wins under his belt after qualifying this week. Mmoh is crafty and consistent from the baseline, and he has the confidence in his groundstrokes to string together an upset.
Prediction: Mmoh in 3
Lorenzo Musetti vs Coleman Wong
Head-to-head: Musetti 1-0
The pair last met in the 2025 edition of this tournament, as Musetti took out Wong–the Hong Kong youngster–in straight sets. Wong’s ranking has hovered around the No. 150 mark for the past year, but he’s had a great week, reaching his first ATP Tour quarterfinal. Meanwhile, the Italian struggled in his opening match of 2026, beating Tomas Martín Etcheverry 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4, while Wong clinched his third Top 50 win by defeating Gabriel Diallo on Wednesday.
The Italian is a reliable all-court player, and I see him wearing down Wong deep in a third set. Beating three players of a higher caliber might be a tall task for the Hong Kong home favorite, but I wouldn’t rule out an upset. Look for Wong to target Musetti’s slightly shakier backhand.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images