If the poll were reflected in May’s result, it would mean Labour goes from having half of the total 60 seats currently to just eight in the Senedd
Leader of Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth is on course to be Wales’ next First Minister(Image: Getty Images)
The latest poll showing how people in Wales say they will vote in May’s Senedd election is utterly devastating for Welsh Labour. The party would go from being the biggest party, and governing Wales, to be being fourth – behind Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and the Green Party.
If the poll were reflected in the result, it would mean Labour goes from having half of the total 60 seats currently to just eight in the Senedd, which from May will grow to having 96 politicians.
It would also be a staggering result for the Green Party, which currently has no elected Senedd members.
First Minister Eluned Morgan is also projected to fail to be re-elected according to two different projection models.
Plaid Cymru’s projected vote share has increased from 30% in the last equivalent poll in September, to 37%. Reform’s support has dropped in this poll from 29% in September to 23% now.
The Green Party, which currently has no representation in the Senedd, jumps to the third biggest party with 13% support, leapfrogging Labour, which is projected to win just 10% of the votes, level with the Conservatives.
The Greens, under this projection, would go from having no presence in the Senedd now, to having 11 seats. Labour would sink to single figures, with just eight – a far cry from the 30 seats they won in 2021.
On May 7, people in Wales will vote for the 96 politicians they want to represent them in the Welsh Parliament. There are major changes coming into force in this election, including changes to the voting system, new constituencies and the fact it will elect 96, not 60, Senedd members as has been the case in the years since devolution started in 1999.
This poll, carried out by YouGov on behalf of ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru, quizzed 1,220 adults between January 5 and January 12. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
People were asked which party they would vote for:
- Plaid Cymru: 37%
- Reform UK: 23%
- Labour: 10%
- Conservatives: 10%
- Liberal Democrats: 5%
- Green Party: 13%
That would mean the Senedd would look like this:
- Plaid Cymru: 45 seats
- Reform: 23 seats
- Green: 11 seats
- Labour: eight seats
- Conservatives: six seats
- Lib Dems: three seats
There are two projection tools designed to put these results on the map. One is designed by political academic Dr Jac Larner, the other by public affairs company Cavendish.
Cavendish’s projects the following:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Three Plaid, one Labour, two Reform
Bangor Conwy Môn: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Conservative
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Three Plaid, one Green, one Labour, one Reform
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Lib Dem, one Green
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Three Plaid, one Reform, one Green, one Labour
Caerdydd Penarth: Three Plaid, one Green, one Reform, one Labour
Casnewydd Islwyn: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Green
Ceredigion Penfro: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Conservative
Clwyd: Two Plaid, two Conservative, one Reform, one Green
Fflint Wrecsam: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Conservative
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Green
Gŵyr Abertawe: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Green
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Two Plaid, one Reform, one Conservative, one Green, one Labour
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Green
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Two Plaid, one Reform, one Conservative, one Labour, one Green
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Four Plaid, two Reform
Dr Jac Larner’s projects the following:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Three Plaid, one Reform, one Labour, one Green
Bangor Conwy Môn: Four Plaid, two Reform
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Three Plaid, two Reform, one Labour
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Lib Dem, one Green
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Green, one Lib Dem
Caerdydd Penarth: Three Plaid, one Green, one Reform, one Labour
Casnewydd Islwyn: Two Plaid, one Reform, one Labour, one Green
Ceredigion Penfro: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Green
Clwyd: Two Plaid, two Conservative, one Reform, one Green
Fflint Wrecsam: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Greens, one Conservative
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Green
Gŵyr Abertawe: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Green
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Two Plaid, one Reform, one Conservative, one Green, one Labour
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Labour, one Green
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Two Plaid, two Reform, one Conservative, one Green
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Four Plaid, one Reform, one Greens