The UK’s GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November, which was better than expected. · Gary Yeowell via Getty Images
The UK economy returned to growth in November, despite uncertainty in the run up to chancellor Rachel Reeves delivering the autumn budget.
The UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released on Thursday. This was better than forecasts for 0.1% growth and followed an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October.
Services output increased by 0.3% in November and production grew by 1.1%, though construction output fell by 1.3%.
In the three months to November, the ONS data showed that UK GDP grew by 0.1%, after showing no growth in the previous three months, which was revised up from a fall of 0.1%.
Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “The economy grew slightly in the latest three months, led by growth in the services sector, which performed better in November following a weak October.”
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“This was partially offset by a fall in manufacturing, where three-monthly growth was still affected by the cyber incident that impacted car production earlier in the autumn,” she said. “However, data for the latest month show that this industry has now largely recovered.”
Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that the rebound in real GDP “suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a bit more momentum than we thought”.
“But with the economy still contending with the lingering drags from high interest rates, high taxes and weak overseas demand, we doubt this pace of growth will be sustained,” she said.
Gregory said with inflation set to fall to 2% April “we doubt today’s news will prevent the Bank of England from cutting rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00% this year”.
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, said: “It will be interesting to see what happened in December, to provide a clear reaction to the budget from businesses and consumers.”
Reeves announced more than £26bn worth of tax rises in the autumn budget, on 26 November, which is expected to have increased the treasury’s fiscal headroom to £21.7bn.
“It’s possible that November’s (GDP) number shows activity taking place ahead of tougher times,” said Birrell. “The chancellor will take some solace from this, but it does feel somewhat historic already, even though it’s only a short while ago.”
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