But the odds of an Australian victory continue to improve as Grail Seeker is set to become the latest high-profile Kiwi to pull out of the Railway.
She was the $8 fourth-favourite last night but trainers Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott say she will almost certainly be withdrawn on Tuesday.
“We think she would be better off with another two weeks before the BCD Sprint,” O’Sullivan said.
“And with her being a two-time Group 1 winner, she wasn’t ideally suited by the set weights and penalty conditions this Saturday anyway.”
Grail Seeker, who was third in the Telegraph at Trentham on January 3, joins the winner of that Group 1 in First Five and fourth-placed Tomodachi as local stars who will miss the Railway and instead step up to 1400m in the BCD Sprint at Te Rapa on February 7.
The local defence will still be led by last year’s Railway winner Crocetti and runner-up Alabama Lass, both of whose connections are happy with their condition.
“Alabama Lass galloped well on Saturday and will go again in the morning but she is ready,” trainer Ken Kelso said on Monday, with the mare to be ridden by Craig Williams.
Co-trainer Danny Walker says Crocetti will also have his final serious track work on Tuesday and he expects sharp improvement from his last-start eighth in the Telegraph.
“We think he just got to the wrong part of the track late in the piece whereas the first three home were all down toward the rail,” Walker said.
“The race has cleaned him up well and all we want now is a good draw.”
That will be the case for many of those in Saturday’s six features as the markets are incredibly even for five of the races, the obvious exception being Well Written’s $1.50 favouritism for the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old.
The 2-year-old dash for cash brings such disparate formlines from Ellerslie winners, to Queensland, Victoria and South Island form, while one-time favourite De Armas even had a spin around at the Foxton trials last week, where she looked a happy and sound filly.
The barrier draw for both the 2-year-old and 3-year-old races will be conducted at the Karaka sales complex on Wednesday morning with coverage on Trackside (Sky channel 62) starting at 10.30am.
The market has also yet to settle for the $1m Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic for the 4-year-olds, with Victorian visitor Knobelas a somewhat surprising $4.50 favourite on Mondaym, ahead of Tuxedo at $5 and Checkmate out to $6 alongside Hinekaha and She’s A Dealer.
O’Sullivan and Scott have confirmed that Smart Love will now start in the Aotearoa Classic after consideration was given to missing the race in favour of another target next month.
Karaka Millions/NZB Yearling Sales timeline
Monday: Yearlings started parading at Karaka sales complex.
Tuesday: Open trackwork session at Ellerslie.
Wednesday: Barrier draws for Karaka Millions races, fields for full meeting released.
Saturday: TAB Karaka Millions at Ellerslie.
Jan 25-26: National Yearling Sale, Book 1 (567 horses catalogued)
Jan 27: National Yearling Sale, Book 2 (280 horses catalogued)
Jan 29: Karaka summer sale (160 horses catalogued)
Races info: www.ellerslie.co.nz
Sales info: www.nzb.co.nz
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.