Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing Tips

13:45 Newmarket – Qilin Queen
16:53 Hamilton – Masekela
17:00 Salisbury – Thunder Sparks (each-way)
17:20 Newmarket – Watching Stars

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

This is a really interesting Pretty Polly Stakes, generally regarded as an Oaks’ trial. Anna Swan was always regarded by Sir Michael Stoute as a filly who would come into her own over middle distances in her second season.

I think that you can forget her run in the Fillies Mile on her final start as she never settled under Richard Kingscote under a rather muddling pace, and now with William Haggas, she could take some massive steps forward.

Falakeyah comes into this as the least exposed in the field, but I am not sure that she beat an awful lot at Wolverhampton on her only start, so I would much rather side with the Ed Walker-trained runner, QILIN QUEEN.

In three starts as a two-year-old, she always looked as though middle distances would be her forte, especially on her final start when she galloped through the line in the Listed Ascendent Stakes over a mile at Haydock Park. She was then put away by her handler to strengthen up and mature through the winter, and I am looking forward to seeing how she has come forward physically in the paddock.

This looks like a tight low-grade handicap over an extended mile and a half, and several of the nine runners in the field have fallen to very viable marks today, probably none more so than the 10-year-old The Navigator, who has been jumping through the winter, so will have the advantage of arriving here fit and ready.

But I just wonder if he can deal with both the selection, MASEKELA, and top weight Mister Daydream. The last-named returned with a complete success at Bath over a mile and a quarter, but if he doesn’t settle here, he may well struggle to get home as they climb this steep finish.

The tip, though, is looking so dangerously well-treated that I cannot let him go unbacked. Not exactly bred to relish this distance, his style of racing suggests otherwise, and I think he should relish it further, backed up by his running sixth of 10 behind Perfectly Timed over a mile and a half at Thirsk. I am hoping that this stiffer track will play to his strengths.

This won’t be everyone’s idea of a race to have a bet in, but with a lack of runners throughout the cards, it at least provides us with more choice for the value bet. Grey Owl won over the course and distance on similar ground off 52 and must have every chance here of following up off 55 with the in-form David Probert in the saddle.

I make him the biggest danger to my each-way selection, THUNDER SPARKS, who has been crying out for a step up to this trip, and unlike many of his rivals here, he simply doesn’t have many miles on the clock. I have written off his last two starts of 2024 at Chelmsford and Southwell as he raced way too keenly on both occasions and was done and dusted well before the quarter-mile pole.

I am hoping that his young jockey takes a look at those two races and more from last season and rides him with a bit more restraint. Indeed, his best run came when he was taken back a wee bit when coming home nicely at Lingfield over 11 furlongs and off a 7lbs lower mark, he looks a solid play here if he does settle back in mid div.

I thought that this was a fascinating end to the Newmarket card, with the market being made by Merchant. The William Haggas’ trained charge needed every yard of the extended mile to win on his final start at Wolverhampton last year and I don’t think that we will see the best of him until he runs over a mile and a half on better ground and I am looking to the King George V Handicap for him at Royal Ascot. One thing you cannot argue with is that his handicap mark of 82 looks very playable.

But he is likely to start at around the 2/1 marker, and the value call surely has to be the Godolphin charge, WATCHING STARS.

This son of Sea The Stars ran four times as a juvenile, and his last run can be safely forgotten as he looked over the top on the soft ground at Newmarket. Back on a fast surface and upped and with a cracking run under his belt, his fitness and strong staying bloodlines could make him the value against his fellow Newmarket rival at the head of the betting.

Sunday Horse Racing Tips

13:45 Newmarket – Qilin Queen
16:53 Hamilton – Masekela
17:00 Salisbury – Thunder Sparks (each-way)
17:20 Newmarket – Watching Stars

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.

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