The Wales and Lions legend looks at the chances of the six competing nations in this tournament
19:30, 28 Jan 2026
Wales head coach Steve Tandy(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)
There’s something about the Six Nations that never changes, no matter how much the game around it does.
New laws come and go, players get bigger and faster, and analysts drown us in data and statistics, but when February rolls around it still comes down to the same old questions: who can win the collisions, who can hold their nerve, and who can do the basics better than the opposition for 80 minutes. The 2026 Six Nations will be no different.
However, this tournament promises to be one of the most intense tournaments in years, not just for its condensed schedule but also as it is a forerunner of an evolving era of international rugby.
The Championship has been condensed into six weeks rather than the usual seven, with only one fallow week instead of two. It will likely to be decided by small margins, bonus points and discipline at set-pieces. I also believe there will be the odd unexpected rogue result. Let’s just hope the irritating over-involvement of the TMO does not influence the results.
With France, England and Ireland expected to be leading the charge, fans should be prepared for drama from February to Super Saturday.
As for predicting a winner, logic says France. They have the squad, the confidence and the momentum. Ireland will push them all the way and England could yet spoil the party if they find rhythm early. Scotland will cause at least one upset, Italy will be competitive, and Wales…. Well, Wales will learn a lot about themselves.
France start as defending champions and bookmakers’ favourites. The odds indicate they are well-placed to win back-to-back championships. With home games against their closest challengers, including the showpiece against England on Super Saturday, it’s hard to disagree with that.
They’ve got power up front, and enough attacking talent behind the scrum to punish any lapse in concentration. What’s impressed me most about this French side isn’t just the flair, they’ve always had that, but now they’re happy to win ugly.
They can play a territorial kicking game or pressurise you at the breakdown and have the patience to wait for mistakes. That’s how championships are won.
If they maintain their discipline, they will take some stopping.
However, Ireland will have something to say about that. They’re not flashy, but they are efficient.
They are structured in both attack and defence and they have a very good tactical kicking game plan. Everything they do has a purpose. Their forwards understand their roles, and that’s half the battle at this level.
They might not blow teams away, but they will put you under intense pressure.
Ireland have won multiple titles in the past decade and they are regular challengers. However, with away games against France and England to look forward to, the fixture list is working against them this year.
Remember the season leading up to the 2023 RWC, England were in a similar position to Wales in having to replace their national coach. How our respective paths have differed since then.
England may still be a work in progress but there are signs that their performances have improved significantly.
Their pack looks more comfortable playing without the ball, their defence has structure again, and they’re beginning to develop some cohesion in attack.
They have had a reputation for looking like title contenders one week and disjointed the next.
However, any question marks about their consistency appear to have been answered.
They are currently third in the World rankings and commence this year’s tournament with momentum, following an 11-match unbeaten streak. This includes a victory over New Zealand who are immediately above them in the rankings. Consequently, their confidence and continuity under coach Steve Borthwick have become well established.
England’s improved forward play and tactical kicking make them legitimate challengers. Their game in Paris on Super Saturday could prove to be a winner-takes-all occasion.
Scotland remain one of the most watchable sides in the Championship, with Finn Russell calling the shots. But entertainment doesn’t win titles on its own. Their squad boasts of some exciting players. They’ve got genuine threats out wide and some clever players in midfield, yet too often their tournament comes down to one or two matches where they don’t turn up.
They have proved that they are capable of big results, but they will need to maintain consistency across five rounds to progress higher in the table. That means a bit more ruthlessness when the game is there to be won.
Italy may enter the tournament as perennial outsiders but improvements in squad depth and competitiveness and better coaching offer real potential for upsets. This is especially so in Rome where, on their day, they remain capable of beating top teams.
Italy deserve credit for the progress they’ve made, but the Six Nations is an unforgiving place. However, they can no longer be written off as an automatic win. Just ask Wales who have lost three of the last four games against them, including the 2022 and 2024 games at the Principality Stadium. The only team they haven’t beaten is England.
Their challenge is to sustain their performance levels when the game starts turning against them. At this level, heads can drop quickly, and good sides sense that.
Italy will target one or two games as must-wins, and if they get one early in the tournament, belief could grow.
The Wales verdict
And then there’s Wales. I won’t pretend otherwise, Welsh rugby is at a crossroads on and off the field. Results haven’t been good enough, confidence has taken a huge knock, and there’s no hiding from that.
The first two games are against England and France. We could potentially have the stuffing knocked out of us before we reach our third round home game against Scotland. No doubt, we will be one of their targets. Then there will be the difficult fourth round away game against Ireland to contend with.
I’ve often said in this column, ‘If you don’t learn the lessons of the past it doesn’t augur well for the future.’ But this tournament isn’t about looking backwards; it’s about finding a way forward.
The recent high turnover in the coaching staff and a string of poor results have left Welsh rugby in a rebuilding phase. The Six Nations will be as much about laying foundations as chasing immediate success and that applies to players and coaches alike.
Home support at The Principality Stadium will be critical as they aim to build momentum and confidence. It has, consequently, been worrying to learn that the WRU have been experiencing difficulties in selling tickets.
The lack of success on the field has been compounded by the off-field issues that have not helped much either. The sooner they are sorted out the better
The Six Nations has a habit of exposing weakness and revealing those who will stand up and be counted this. Wales need players who will do the latter like never before.
Graham Price’s column is in association with Nigel Jones, experts in dental implants
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