US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources told Reuters, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers.
According to CNN, talks between Washington and Iran failed to make inroads on a deal to end the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and that has increased Trump’s openness to a major intervention.
Two US sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters that Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions that Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the US sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have a lasting impact, possibly against the nuclear or ballistic missile programs.
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The other US source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action, including whether to take the military path.
Protesters hold flags and placards during a rally in solidarity with protesters in Iran, in Los Angeles on January 18, 2026. (Jonathan Alcorn / AFP)
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be more severe than the US’s bombing campaign against three nuclear sites that ended the Israel-Iran war in June. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Trump wants strike to force deal, as Tehran clings to missiles
Sources told CNN that US and Iranian officials earlier this month discussed a potential in-person meeting, but it never came to fruition.
The report said Washington has demanded, as preconditions, a permanent end to Iran’s uranium enrichment, new limits on its ballistic missile program, and a stop to its support for regional proxy forces.
According to CNN, Iran has balked at Washington’s demand for curbs to the missile program, and has said it will only negotiate on its nuclear program. The US hasn’t responded, leaving talks at a dead end, sources told the network.
An official told CNN that Trump’s preferred scenario would be that a swift, powerful strike force Iran to accept American terms for a ceasefire.
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week expanded the US president’s options for military action.
The flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, on May 19, 2019. (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Garrett LaBarge/US Navy via AP)
But four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source told Reuters they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, American strikes could weaken Iranian opposition, as the population is already in shock.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections, Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
Iran’s foreign office, the US Department of Defense, and the White House did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment to the outlet.
Limits of air power
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters that Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can bring down the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” the official said, adding that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran will “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organized domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
Traffic rolls along a main throughfare under a banner with images of past and present world leaders and opponents of the Islamic Republic regime, that reads in Farsi, “Domino fall,” in the Iranian capital Tehran on January 19, 2026. (ATTA KENARE / AFP)
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple US intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The senior Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to the recent American operation in Venezuela, which captured its president but has not pursued a wholesale change in government.
Khamenei maintains control, but less visibly
At 86, Iran’s supreme leader has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances, and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and large parts of the economy.
This handout photograph provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him addressing a meeting with the people in Tehran on January 17, 2026. (KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy, meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hardline rule and deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken, the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favor containment over collapse — not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
This photograph taken during a tour for foreign media shows women walking past a government building that was burnt during recent public protests, in Tehran on January 21, 2026. (ATTA KENARE / AFP)
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
Regional blowback
Gulf states, which are long‑time US allies and hosts to major American bases, fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the US deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponize its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion — elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession — that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.