From how people in Wales view Keir Starmer to their thoughts on independence, the data gives us an idea about what people are thinking
Keir Starmer has poor approval ratings from Welsh voters(Image: PA)
The latest political polling for Wales threw up some jaw-dropping headlines – Plaid extending its vote, something of a stagnation for Reform UK, the first seats in the Senedd for the Green Party, and Labour slipping to fourth. But away from the voting intention figures, for both the future Westminster election and May’s Senedd election, the data gives plenty more away about what’s going on in Wales.
The polling, by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru included a range of questions, which analysts at YouGov have poured through to give us these takeaways on popularity of leaders, how people in Wales view independence and what their top priorities for politicians are.
The poll asked questions of 1,205 adults in Wales between January 5 and 12.
Are the Welsh and UK governments doing a good job?
Are the Welsh and UK governments doing a good job?
The analysis finds that what is key to Labour’s poor ratings in Wales is likely to be the perception that the Labour governments at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay are doing bad jobs.
“Two thirds of Welsh adults (67%) give the UK government a negative performance rating, relative to 20% feeling they’re doing neither particularly well or badly and just 10% believing they’ve done a good job,” the YouGov analysis reads.
“The Welsh Government fares only a little better, being seen to be doing a bad job by a smaller margin of 52% to 14%, with a further 25% seeing them as doing neither a good nor a bad job.” For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
Even people who voted for Labour in the 2024 general election are struggling to back the party. Just 24% of those who marked their ballot form for Labour believe that either government are doing a good job.
That only rises to something like 50% when looking at those who intend to vote for the party in May.
Health top of people’s wish list
Health top of people’s wish list(Image: YouGov)
The top issue facing people is health, with 59% of those questioned putting it as their top priority when asked. Next was the cost of living (45%), the economy and immigration, both on 26%.
When it comes to Plaid, Labour or Tory voters, health comes top, for 64% of Reform UK voters, the answer is immigration.
For the UK government, between 44-48% of Welsh people believe that the cost of living, health and immigration should be top priorities.
The graph shows what Welsh people believe government priorities should be(Image: YouGov)
Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular
Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular(Image: YouGov)
Only 15% of Welsh adults believe Keir Starmer is doing well as prime minister, compared to nearly 74% who feel he is doing a bad job in office. Even among 2024 Welsh Labour voters, just 33% think Starmer is doing a good job, while 61% feel he’s doing badly.
Eluned Morgan is evaluated a little more positively, with 22% of Welsh people feeling she is doing well as first minister, though nearly half (47%) still feel she is doing badly. However, nearly 18 months into the role, 31% of Welsh adults don’t know how they feel about Morgan’s performance.
For Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth (36%) is up ten points from September, relative to 25% feeling he is doing badly. Four in ten (39%) are unsure of their view of the man who is favourite to be the next first minister, though this is down seven points since last autumn.
People in Wales’ opinion towards Kemi Badenoch has shifted too, with 26% saying she’s doing well as Tory leader.
Independence
Independence(Image: YouGov)
Just a quarter of Welsh adults (26%) say they would vote for Wales to become an independent country if there was a referendum, though this is the highest figure recorded by YouGov’s tracker for ITV Wales to date.
Nonetheless, a majority (54%) would vote against any such proposal.
Independence tracker(Image: YouGov)
This is particularly interesting as Plaid Cymru, topping the poll, is a pro-independence party. The other left party, the Green Party, also support independence.
YouGov charts for Wales in January(Image: YouGov)
Do Welsh people believe Wales gets its fair share?
A majority of Welsh people (57%) believe that the nation receives less than its fair share of government spending currently, compared to just 15% who believe it gets about the right amount of funding and just 3% who believe it is getting more than is fair.