Even the dwindling band of its advocates cannot muster any economic arguments in its favour. It has become a victim of a world changing at an unimaginable pace. Conflict and geopolitical tensions get worse by the day; the international rule book has been torn up and the White House has an incumbent who believes tariffs are an economic miracle – despite the pain they inflict on American consumers.

Now is the time for strength and big power blocs, making the isolationism of Brexit for trade and security potentially the biggest economic downside the UK faces.

The big gamble for the government is whether to stick to its pro-Brexit manifesto commitments, which it never believed in but used to get votes. An alternative would be to draw a line under the last government and its flagship policy by giving people a new choice around closer relations with the EU. This would not necessarily be about rejoining the EU as we were before Brexit, but getting closer by being part of the single market and perhaps more importantly the new European defence policies.

Here the UK is already having a big impact with no formal links. Making this the basis for a new referendum would be the greatest gamble of Keir Starmer’s political career – but it is what he might need to do if he wants to put clear water between his party and Reform.

There is no question the government wants closer ties with the EU and Starmer is comfortable and well thought of in that environment; he has done much to unite Europe over Ukraine and the need for more robust defence policies. Indeed he is more popular there than at home, where he is less sure-footed. The EU made a huge mistake allowing Brexit to happen, because it offered David Cameron no concessions and failed to believe the UK could vote to leave. In a difficult world, not least in relations with the US, Europe is realising just how much it misses British diplomatic skills.

The EU commissioner for finance, Valdés Dombrovskis , was in London recently for the high level EU/UK group that tackles problems from Brexit. He said the EU was ‘open-minded’ on the UK having a new single market relationship and joining its defence and security pact. Amongst those on the government side were Rachel Reeves, who as Chancellor knows the damage Brexit has done to hopes around economic growth. Open-minded is diplomatic-speak for ‘we would like this to happen’ and Reeves would like to see the economic benefits of a customs union.

This would be good for agriculture as it would ease trade with out still biggest market. Critics say it would curb UK freedom to agree trade deals, but the EU secures better deals, because it offers scale. The difference between the EU’s new trade deal with India and the UK’s deal is stark. The mood music for change is there; change would be popular with voters, provided economic benefits flow well before a general election; Labour backbenchers want change, so the question is whether the government has the nerve to escape manifesto commitments.

Back in the real world of now, there is a growing sense of crisis in the dairy industry, with prices tumbling and claims some farmers are operating at or below the cost of production.

The crisis term was used by some EU member states at a recent meeting of farm ministers. Documents refer to ‘structural problems’ – increasing milk supplies in the face of demand that is static or falling. The picture painted is a classic one of agricultural markets that reflect thousands of individual decisions by farmers. As a result 2025 milk production rose, with the rise biggest at more than 5% in October.

This was a response to high prices earlier in the year; cow culling was reduced by 14%, despite strong beef prices; weather was good for production in the summer. The extra supply produced the inevitable result. Average EU milk prices fell from 53 euro per 100kg in September to 49 euro in December, with a further drop expected for January. A private storage scheme to take surplus production off the market is a looming use of the CAP crisis reserve.

A disappointing end to the security of high prices, but at least evidence Brussels remains committed to market management of a key sector.