The mixed voting system played a part. People in Thailand cast two ballots, one for a candidate in their constituency, and one for the party they prefer.
At the national level the People’s Party, with nearly 10 million votes, did much better in the party list than Bhumjaithai, with just under six million votes, although this was still a big drop compared to the more than 14 million Move Forward, the previous incarnation of the People’s Party, won in 2023.
But the party list accounts for only 20% of the 500 seats in parliament.
As many as 80% of the seats are allocated by local contests, where whichever candidate get the most votes in each constituency wins the seat on a first-past-the-post basis.
This is where the People’s Party, which is relatively new and urban-based, is weaker because it lacks rural networks.
Bhumjaithai, by comparison, is a past master at using its substantial resources to win local power-brokers to its side, and they exercise a lot of influence over voters in their areas.
Anutin has used the defections of political veterans from other parties to grow Bhumjaithai from a medium-sized provincial movement which won only 51 seats in 2019, to a national-level election-winning powerhouse today.
It was also harder for the reformists to distinguish themselves on a single issue this time. In 2023, after nine years being ruled by the stern, avuncular Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who led the 2014 coup, there was a broad yearning for change, and the Move Forward party, under its suave, telegenic leader Pita Limjaroenrat, promised no deals with “the uncles” – those involved in the coup.
This captured the imagination of the public, and there was a last-minute wave of support for them.
In this election, there was no such defining issue, and the party had been forced to drop its campaign to amend the harsh lese majeste law after this was used by the courts to justify dissolving Move Forward and banning its leaders from politics.
Anutin was also able to coalesce conservative support around his party, as opposed to having their voters split among several parties in 2023.
His strident nationalism over the border conflict with Cambodia, his staunch support for the army and his intense loyalty to King Vajiralongkorn all defined him clearly as the standard-bearer for Thai conservatism.