US tariff developments limited implications for UK and EU, says Goldman Sachs Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Recent US tariff developments have only limited implications for the UK and Europe, despite fresh uncertainty for markets, according to Goldman Sachs.
The US Supreme Court last Friday struck down tariffs imposed last year, including “reciprocal” tariffs, which had lifted the effective US tariff rate on EU goods by 6.9 percentage points and on UK goods by 5.8 points during 2025. Sector-specific tariffs on automobiles and metals remain in place.
President Trump immediately announced a new “global tariff” of 10%, which came into effect on Tuesday, with a planned increase to 15% still said to be in the works.
Goldman estimates that a 15% global tariff, net of exemptions, would lift the US effective tariff rate on EU imports by 0.9 percentage points to 12.1% and by 2.9 points to 10.9% for the UK. The impact would be broadly neutral for Switzerland and Norway.
The new tariff would apply to roughly half of US imports from the EU and about 60% from the UK, with energy and pharmaceuticals still exempt.
Goldman noted that EU and UK exports to the US are already down 10-20% from 2024 averages, suggesting much of the tariff impact has already been felt.
“While modestly more negative than the prior status-quo (especially for the UK), the new US tariffs would thus imply only limited further downside to European exports to the US and broader manufacturing activity.”
Policy uncertainty remains high as the European Parliament weighs delaying its US trade deal, with the 10% tariff authority also needing to be approved by Congress by mid July.