Bonus newsletter!

A new poll has just dropped for Wales and it is fascinating.

First Minister Eluned Morgan is expected to lose her seat while Reform have increased their vote share compared to previous polls.

Plaid will be the largest party and, alongside the Greens, would command a majority in the Senedd.

The Lib Dems would be totally wiped out under these results and the Welsh Tories would be down to just one MS.

Let’s break down the details…

This poll is by YouGov for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University and has applied the latest MRP modelling to offer a predicted breakdown of how many seats each party will win in each of the 16 new constituencies.

This is the breakdown of the vote percentage and how much it has changed compared to the last poll:

Senedd voting intention:

  • Plaid Cymru – 33 (-4)

  • Reform UK – 27 (+4)

  • Welsh Labour – 13 (+3)

  • Wales Green Party – 12 (-1)

  • Welsh Conservatives – 7 (-3)

  • Welsh Liberal Democrats – 5 (n/c)

  • Others 4 – (+2)

In terms of the 96 seats in the Senedd these results would leave the new Welsh Parliament like this:

  • Plaid Cymru – 43 seats

  • Reform UK – 30

  • Welsh Labour – 12

  • Wales Green Party – 10

  • Welsh Conservatives – 1

This graphic shows how the Senedd would look:

The key number is 49 because this would be a majority.

At present we don’t have the full data (we will look at it in more detail in a future newsletter) but there are several key takeaways we can make right now:

  • Together Plaid and the Greens would have a decent majority. Together the Greens and Plaid would have 53 seats. This would be above the 49 threshold meaning that they wouldn’t need Labour to pass legislation.

  • The Tories face near total wipeout. If this poll is true, the Welsh Conservatives will go from being the official opposition to just one seat. Based on the modelling by Cardiff Uni this would mean that the only seat they would win is in Clwyd. Darren Millar is top of that list.

  • The demise of the Tories really hurts Reform. The challenge Reform will face is that no other party will work with them except for the Tories. However, if the entirety of the Welsh Tories is just Darren Millar, then Reform are 18 seats away from being able to form a government.

  • Reform doesn’t need to be in government to consider the election a success. If Reform gets a third of the voters in the Senedd it will be an enormous boost for the party in terms of resources heading the General Election. Each MS will have three or more staff funded by the taxpayer.

  • Wales identity remains left of centre. Just a third of people in Wales are, under this poll, voting for parties on the right.

  • The Greens are not growing at Plaid’s expense. Commenting on the results Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said:

“The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru’s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters. The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.”

“For the Liberal Democrats, even without significant losses among their existing Welsh voters, a marginally stronger Labour showing combined with a solid Green performance effectively raises the threshold of votes required to win a seat in any constituency across Wales.”

Each of Wales’ super constituencies will have six Senedd Members. Cardiff Uni’s analysis has projected that this is how each area would break down under this polling:

  • Afan Ogwr Rhondda – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1

  • Bangor Conwy Môn – Plaid 4, Reform 2,

  • Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1

  • Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf – Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Caerdydd Penarth – Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Casnewydd Islwyn – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Ceredigion Penfro – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Green 1

  • Clwyd – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1

  • Fflint Wrecsam – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Gwynedd Maldwyn – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Green 1

  • Gŵyr Abertawe – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1

  • Sir Fynwy Torfaen – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1

  • Sir Gaerfyrddin – Plaid 4, Reform 2

It’s worth noting that there is no part of Wales where Reform has more seats in an area than Plaid Cymru. Though Labour’s vote share has increased on previous polling, Eluned Morgan’s party would not elect anyone in four constituencies including her own in Ceredigion Penfro.

That’s all for today. We will be back with you tomorrow for the midweek newsletter. We will also be doing more detailed analysis of these results over the next week.

Take care

Will

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