BETWEEN 50,000 and 75,000 Irish jobs could be impacted in a Trump tariffs war “worst case scenario”, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has warned.
In April, US President Donald Trump announced a 20 per cent tariff on all imports coming from the EU, excluding pharmaceuticals as of now.
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Trump announced the tariffs on April 2Credit: AFP or licensors
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Donohoe shared the latest update this morningCredit: RTE
He then announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs, with a 10 per cent blanket duty on all US imports remaining in place.
Donohoe said that between 20,000 and 25,000 jobs could be lost if when the tariffs come into play.
He told Morning Ireland: “We believe we will still have a record level of employment within our economy but we might have slightly fewer jobs being created.
“Over the medium term, in the worst case scenario, it could be between 50 and 75,000 jobs.
“Across next year, we believe the number of jobs that may not be created, or could indeed be lost, would be 20 to 25,000 jobs.”
He also said that the Government is looking at “how we can negotiate to avoid that happening, and how we can adjust and support the economy if this moment of change were to occur”.
He noted that negotiations with the US are “very volatile”.
He continued: “We are engaging through the European Union, with the United States of America.
“Meetings have taken place at official and political level between the US and the EU.
“And what we have aimed to do at a national level is to compliment that.”
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The EU’s retaliatory tariffs are in response to the “decisions that have been made in the United States” and the EU would rather not be in its current position, Donohoe claimed.
Despite tariff fears for the Irish economy, Donohoe insisted that it will continue to grow but at a smaller pace.
Donohoe said that while there was “uncertainty” for the future ahead, Ireland is in a “position of strength”.
He said: “It is just essential that we continue to remind ourselves and make the case that the European Union is responding back.
“We can still shape that certainty to a degree on a national and EU level.”
DONOHOE ON PHARMA TARIFFS
PASCAL Donohoe also spoke regarding potential tariffs being placed on the pharmaceutical industry.
There are an estimated 50,000 pharmaceutical jobs currently in Ireland.
Donohoe said that he has been speaking with the EU “to make the case for live science and the medicine sector, to make the case for global supply chains and the role they can play that is beneficial for Ireland, for Europe and I think even for America”.
He added: “We have put a lot of effort into this and this is understood by the [European] Commission.”
Donohoe also noted that there was “growing recognition” that these supply chains are complex and that changes here can impact costs and availability.
He said: “For many years, Ireland has made the case that the application of digital services taxes could have a very serious impact on our ability to find a good outcome on trade negotiations”.
When it comes to further tariff discussions with the EU, Trump has said he hopes to meet with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.
Following a trade agreement between the US and UK, he said he hopes negotiations can be reached with the EU also.
He told reporters: “She’s so fantastic. I hope we’re gonna meet.
“The European Union’s big thing, they want to make a deal very badly. Everybody wants to make a deal with the United States, so we’re doing that.”
Donohoe also expressed a need for Trump to meet Von der Leyen at the White House.
He said: “I would really want to see her in the Oval Office.
“I can think of few who are better able to represent what Europe stands for and the interests of the European Union.”
JOB LOSS FEARS
In March ahead of the tariff announcement, Minister Donohoe warned the “worst case scenario” could see between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs that would have been either created or kept within the Irish economy lost.
Speaking to RTE’s This Week he explained: “So if the worst case scenario was to unfold we have produced a set of forecasts in relation to us.
“These effects are based only on the application of tariffs. We then have to look at what that could mean for investment flows. What that could mean for how the rest of the world will respond back.”
He continued: “Over the medium term, and by the medium term we mean across the four to five year period, it’s very possible that between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs that would have been created or kept within the economy won’t be
“And in terms of what that would mean for growth within our economy, again across a medium term period we would see an impact of between 2 to 4 per cent on gross domestic product.”
He added: “The key thing to underline there is these are medium term possibilities and we are approaching those kind of challenges from a position of strength but it is important to be transparent and honest about the scale of risk that is there at the moment.”
TAX CUTS
Despite tariffs being announced, Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers has already warned that €250 energy credits will be cut, while Taoiseach Micheal Martin moved to dampen hopes of a cost-of-living package.
Minister Donohoe said measures which saw a record €2.6billion Social Protection package including 10 lump sum payments won’t be able to be repeated in Budget 2026.
He said: “Yes, the cost of living is still high. I know it’s a huge challenge for so many, but we don’t have the inflation levels – the five per cent and 10 per cent – that we had for so many years that necessitated spending billions of euro to help offset prices going up.
“And it is correct, therefore, to say at this point in time that we can’t repeat those kind of measures again and we will need to make sure that we have the enhanced strength in our economy and in our public finances to deal with the kind of risks that we’re outlining today.”
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Tariffs between the US and the EU are currently pausedCredit: Getty Images – Getty