Exclusive analysis of the YouGov MRP poll suggests that 12 constituencies tipped to fall to the Nats are on a knife edge, with the second-placed party within 5, 10 or 15 points of the separatists

20:47, 12 Apr 2026Updated 21:18, 12 Apr 2026

This article contains affiliate links, we will receive a commission on any sales we generate from it. Learn moreJohn Swinney has served five years as Scotland's education secretary

Tactical voting could give John Swinney a nightmare Holyrood election night(Image: Getty Images)

The latest opinion poll from YouGov made depressing reading for the majority of Scottish voters, who support parties opposed to breaking up the United Kingdom.

But every cloud has a silver lining, and there are a swathe of seats where the SNP lead is below 5, 10 or 15 percentage points, which would be well within the target range for tactical voters.

The first YouGov MRP model survey (which estimates the level of support in every constituency) suggests the Nats are on course to win 67 seats, with 65 needed for a Holyrood majority. Of course, this is only one poll – and most pollsters suggest the SNP will fall short and continue with a minority.

And there are only TWO seats in Scotland where the SNP enjoys majority support (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth and Coatbridge and Chryston). The Greens are only standing in six constituencies, and yet only four of those show a majority in support of pro-Scexit parties.

As has been repeatedly pointed out, the major factor in helping the SNP back into power is the rise of Reform with Scotland’s pro-UK majority now being divided four ways. This means no one party is currently able to compete with the Nats, who enjoy the support of almost all Scottish nationalists.

Still, there is plenty of scope for tactical voting – and based on the YouGov MRP poll, here are the seats where the SNP are most vulnerable. Note: This is NOT our final tactical voting guide and these recommendations are only based on the YouGov figures, which are heavily disputed by some Holyrood insiders.

For instance, in Stirling YouGov has the SNP leading Reform by 24 points with the Tories in fourth place. However, well-placed Conservative sources insist it is a two-horse race between Stephen Kerr and the unpopular Nat Alyn Smith. One insider said: “MRP is not gospel, the Tory vote is holding.”

SNP ahead by less than 5 pointsDame Jackie Baillie

Dame Jackie Baillie(Image: Getty Images)

Edinburgh Central – Gap to second place: Level. YouGov suggests this is neck-and-neck between the SNP and the Greens on 25% each, with Angus Robertson facing the humiliation of his political life if he loses to Lorna Slater. Labour are in third place on 23%, meaning this seat could still be won for the pro-UK side. Verdict: Don’t be tempted to vote Green for a laugh at the expense of Air Miles Angus, Labour CAN still win this one.

Dumbarton – Gap to second place: 2 points. The SNP (38%) would love to beat Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie (36%) in her own backyard, despite the fact that she’s one of the country’s best local MSPs and a reliable voice of sanity and reason on the Labour benches at Holyrood. Verdict: Don’t let them get Dame Jackie. Vote Labour to beat the Nats.

Glasgow Kelvin – Gap to second place: 4 points. Another race between the SNP (31%) and the Scottish Greens (27%) in a seat with a large student population, with Labour a distant third according to YouGov (18%). Verdict: The West End of Glasgow is a lost cause. Vote for your chosen party.

SNP ahead by less than 10 pointsSally Donald in her infamous 'all aboard the gravy bus' tweet

Sally Donald in her infamous ‘all aboard the gravy bus’ tweet

East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs – Gap to second place: 6 points. Labour have always been strong in sunny East Lothian, and YouGov has Anas Sarwar’s party is on 29% behind the Nats on 35%. Reform are a distant third (21%) suggesting it would be a wasted vote. Verdict: Vote Labour to stop the Nats.

Edinburgh Southern – Gap to second place: 6 points. A Scottish Labour stronghold for years, the party is polling well on 31% but is still behind the SNP on 37%. This is despite the original candidate, Sally ‘gravy bus’ Donald, being asked to repay thousands in wrongly claimed benefits! Verdict: Vote Labour to stop the Nats.

Strathkelvin and Bearsden – Gap to second place: 6 points. Another tactical voting area where the Lib Dems (31%) have traditionally done well, but Alex Cole-Hamilton’s party will need all the help it can get to overhaul the SNP (37%). Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

Aberdeenshire West – Gap to second place: 7 points. The SNP are track to steal this seat from the Tories, with the Nats polling at 33% and the Conservatives on 26%. It is the Reform vote on 19% that is costing the Union in this pro-UK heartland which includes Royal Deeside. Verdict: Vote Conservative to stop the Nats.

Dumfriesshire – Gap to second place: 9 points. Another Tory heartland where the Nats could win with just 33%, ahead of the Conservatives (24%) and Reform (22%). The Reform candidate in this seat is pro-independence, which makes it mind boggling why any Unionist would vote for him. Verdict: Vote Conservative to stop the Nats.

Galloway and West Dumfries – Gap to second place: 9 points. Yet again, Reform voters are on course to unseat a Tory MSP and hand the Nats another MSP on a plate with just 34% of the vote. The Conservatives are in second place on 25% with Reform just behind in third (23%). Verdict: Vote Conservative to stop the Nats.

SNP ahead by less than 15 pointsJackson Carlaw

Scottish Conservative MSP Jackson Carlaw

Eastwood – Gap to second place: 11 points. Jackson Carlaw is a cracking local MSP – but he’s in second place on 24% behind the SNP on 35%. Both Labour and Reform are also doing well here, but the Tory man stands by far the best chance. Verdict: Vote Conservative to stop the Nats.

Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent – Gap to second place: 11 points. YouGov has Scottish Labour on 28% and the SNP on 39%, meaning this one could fall to tactical voting. Verdict: Vote Labour to stop the Nats.

Edinburgh Northern – Gap to second place: 12 points. The Lib Dems are polling 22%, which puts them within touching distance of the SNP on 34%. A win here would truly make it a night to remember for Alex Cole-Hamilton’s party. Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

All the seats where the SNP are behindOrkney is one of the UK's happiest places

Orkney is one of the UK’s happiest places

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire – Tories lead by 3 points. Scottish Daily Express columnist Rachael Hamilton is ahead of the Nats (31% to 28%) but the Reform UK surge has the party on 21%, which will delight the SNP who have done nothing to earn any representation in the Borders. Verdict: Vote Conservative to stop the Nats.

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross – Lib Dems lead by 4 points. A tight race in the northern Highlands, with the Lib Dems on 40% just ahead of the SNP on 36%. Have the Nats ever done ANYTHING for anyone north of Inverness? Debatable. Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

Shetland Islands – Lib Dems lead by 26 points. The Scottish Lib Dems are the only pro-UK party that is performing well in the constituency vote, according to YouGov. This is largely because Reform don’t tend to do well in Lib Dem areas and shows the true unpopularity of the SNP, without the influence of Nigel Farage’s party. Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

Edinburgh North Western – Lib Dems lead by 34 points. Alex Cole-Hamilton’s home turf is another Lib Dem stronghold, and the party’s resurgence with voters looks set to deliver another SNP scalp in the capital (56% to 22%). Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

Fife North East – Lib Dems lead by 46 points. The sensible folk of St Andrews and Cupar won’t be fooled by pie-in-the-sky promises and divisive rhetoric, and the Lib Dems (66%) are way ahead of the Nats (20%). Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

Orkney Islands – Lib Dems lead by 52 points. The Orkney Islands are often ranked the happiest place in Britain, and it’s easy to see why when the joyless Nationalists are so unpopular. The Lib Dems (68%) are miles ahead of the SNP (16%). Verdict: Vote Lib Dem to stop the Nats.

And the rest

  • Carrick, Cumnock and Don Valley – SNP lead by 15 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Aberdeenshire East – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Ayr – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Midlothian – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Uddingston and Bellshill – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Rutherglen and Cambuslang – SNP lead by 16 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Clydesdale – SNP lead by 17 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith – SNP lead by 18 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – SNP lead by 18 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Banffshire and Buchan Coast – SNP lead by 18 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Bathgate – SNP lead by 18 points ahead of both Labour and Reform in joint second place.
  • Clydebank and Milngavie – SNP lead by 18 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Glasgow Southside – SNP lead by 19 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Dunfermline – SNP lead by 19 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Moray – SNP lead by 19 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Airdrie – SNP lead by 19 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • East Kilbride – SNP lead by 20 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Paisley – SNP lead by 20 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Glasgow Anniesland – SNP lead by 20 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Edinburgh South Western – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Falkirk East and Linlithgow – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Renfrewshire North and Cardonald – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Cowdenbeath – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Cunninghame South – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Glasgow Central – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley – SNP lead by 21 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Angus North and Mearns – SNP lead by 22 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Angus South – SNP lead by 22 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Clackmannanshire and Dunblane – SNP lead by 22 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – SNP lead by by 22 points ahead of the Lib Dems in second place.
  • Kirkcaldy – SNP lead by 23 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok – SNP lead by 23 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale – SNP lead by 23 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Aberdeen Central – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Stirling – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Argyll and Bute – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Cunninghame North – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Motherwell and Wishaw – SNP lead by 24 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Aberdeen Donside – SNP lead by 25 points ahead of Reform and Labour in joint second place.
  • Falkirk West – SNP lead by 25 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Almond Valley – SNP lead by 25 points ahead of Labour and Reform in joint second place.
  • Perthshire North – SNP lead by 26 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Inverclyde – SNP lead by 27 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Coatbridge and Chryston – SNP lead by 28 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar – SNP lead by 28 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Mid Fife and Glenrothes – SNP lead by 28 points ahead of Reform in second place.
  • Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn – SNP lead by 28 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Dundee City East – SNP lead by 29 points ahead of Reform second place.
  • Cumbernauld and Kilsyth – SNP lead by 30 points ahead of Labour in second place.
  • Dundee City West – SNP lead by 35 points ahead of Reform and Labour in joint second place.

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