The many problems that the European Union may have had with Hungary’s membership under the right-wing populist Viktor Orbán have not gone away – even following his astonishing defeat in the recent election in Hungary.
The European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s vision of a 30-plus European Union, which includes Ukraine and former Soviet satellite countries, is disappearing in the rear-view mirror.
According to Politico, there is a very real fear among many EU diplomats of another pro-Putin ‘Trojan horse’ – wielding vetoes, raising objections and disruptions should the expansion begin to take place. These diplomats are understandably reluctant to go public with their concerns, but, nonetheless, are quietly making it known they are not happy.
One concern with expanding the EU is that it will involve countries becoming involved in negotiations which could provide a vehicle for pro-Putin (and pro-Trump) meddling and interference.
But the immediate concern is the fast-tracking of Ukraine into the EU.
Even though Péter Magyar ended 16 years of Orbán rule, Magyar is still on the political right, and it is expected that he will maintain Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine being fast-tracked into the EU. During the election campaign, he had said he didn’t want any ‘fast tracks’ for Ukraine membership.
Enlargement off the agenda for EU Cyprus Summit
EU enlargement was set to be an agenda item at the EU Summit to be held in Cyprus in late April but it is now unlikely to be discussed.
“Enlargement must remain demanding and merit-based to ensure its success and credibility” said France’s minister delegate for European affairs, Benjamin Haddad, indicating that the EU may have learned from ’nodding through’ candidate countries for geo-political reasons.
The Orbán years have been a chastening experience for the EU. Orbán is a politician willing to do Putin and Trump’s bidding with a veto, ready to undermine policies while taking the benefits of EU membership.
There is also a fear in western European countries of an influx of cheaper labour from candidate countries. “The same semi-populist, semi-xenophobic arguments we heard about the Poles [dubbed ‘the Polish plumber debate’ in 2004] – we are likely to hear with the Ukrainians and any other candidate.”
“Who are these people? What are they going to be doing in our club? Will they be coming to take our jobs?, a diplomat from a mid-size EU country commented to Politico, on condition of anonymity.
Candidate countries need wider EU agreement
The concern is highest in France which, by law, would have to hold a referendum on admitting a new member state. The political left in France argues that a vote on Ukraine joining the EU could feed into the campaigning of populist right-wing Rassemblement National (National Rally) party leader Jordan Bardella.
There are also fears in Germany, the Netherlands and Italy which now argue that the EU’s strenuous ‘merit-based’ tests must be respected – with no exceptions for geopolitical reasons.
Insiders say the EU now has to be ‘Hungary-proofed’ by denying veto powers to new members for several years following admission.
This is bad news not just for Ukraine, but also for Montenegro which is said to have completed the laborious steps needed to become a new member, yet the mandate to start drafting the accession treaty is being pushed back. It is believed to be the candidate country whose accession negotiations are the furthest advanced but, “it’s still in negotiations”, say EU diplomats.
Despite pressure by Sweden and Denmark, among others, to get Ukraine fast-tracked, the EU will need agreement from the big western EU countries. “We’re not there yet,” said a senior EU official.
Currently the EU recognises Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine as being candidate countries.
Kosovo is formally considered a “potential candidate”. Turkey has “frozen status”, although Turkey’s application for candidate status was originally made in 1999.
Spotlight on the UK’s position
The membership question also shines a spotlight on the UK.
Starmer’s step-by-step approach, using Labour’s massive majority to do so, has been one of strengthening ties with the EU. Now, the proposed EU bill, using Henry-VIII-style powers, aims to push on with revising the Brexit deal and nudging the UK nearer to alignment with the EU.
It is already facing opposition from Reform, the Tories, the Express, the Daily Mail, The Sun, The Telegraph, GB News and other expected quarters. With closer alignment with the EU likely to feature in the King’s Speech, cries of ‘betrayal’ already abound in the right wing media.
The polls regularly show that ‘buyers’ remorse’ is growing in the UK over Brexit, that a growing majority think Brexit damaged the country, and that a new generation of voters (who did not take part in the Brexit vote) are pro-EU membership. Despite all this, the Government’s plan is bound to breathe life into the corpses of Brexiters. Expect to see Jacob Rees-Mogg, Lord Frost, and assorted Reformers on your screens as the drama unfolds.
Time for Starmer to hold his nerve
Starmer will have to hold his nerve in the face of a media onslaught and a probable legal challenge. He will have to do some coalition-building to drive closer alignment through.
That coalition must include the largely pro-EU trade unions, employers’ lobbies, and nervy back bench Labour MPs in order to face down Reform, the Tories, right-wing media, racists and ‘little Englanders’. Trump will doubtless try to influence things by using his favourite tool of tariff threats.
There is also the concern of many influential institutions in the EU which are still fearful of ‘Brexit revisited’ with the UK media and politically right-wing parties turning it into a shitshow: something they they thought, and hoped, they had seen the back of.
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