Birmingham City’s return to the Championship after a short League One stay has not gone how many supporters and onlookers expected.
Pre-season expectations were high, with the bookies anticipating at least a play-off finish for Chris Davies’ men after their record-breaking League One title win, but football isn’t played on paper.
Other commentators and analysts were more bullish suggesting a tilt at the automatic promotion spots.
Birmingham City sit 10th in the Championship currently, but several key statistics suggest they aren’t where they should be.
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Whilst 10th is a strong top-half finish, Blues are 10 points away from Wrexham in the final play-off spot; a team they finished above last season.
Positive data cannot dissipate the frustrations of many Blues supporters. But as a club who use data to inform decisions, key stats are likely to play a part in the hierarchy’s decision making this summer.
The stats show that Blues are a better team than results suggest. With the play-offs being expanded next season, small improvements could be enough to earn a spot, and a shot at the Premier League.
Expected Goals underperformed in both boxes
Over the course of the season, Blues have managed 59.8 expected goals (xG). They have scored 54.
On the defensive end, they have conceded 54 goals whilst xG says they should only have shipped 46.8; the fourth lowest xG against in the division.
In the Expected Points table, Birmingham are sixth with 69 points, nine points more than they have accrued.
On the defensive end, there have been too many individual errors. Five errors have led directly to goals, while 15 have resulted in at least a shot.
James Beadle’s save percentage of 69.5% is average amongst his peers, but it also must not be forgotten how young he is.
The England U21 hero from last summer is still developing and has shown his inexperience at points during the campaign, while also coming up with big moments.
The style of play is also particularly demanding for a young keeper, though Davies has taken steps in the system to ensure Beadle is not too exposed.
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Too many big chances missed
Blues have been getting into good positions all season. The xG data shows this and so does the number of big chances created.
Data experts always suggest that the best strikers should be performing at around the same level as their xG. It means they are getting into good areas and finishing consistently.
A good finisher will probably outperform their xG, but the goals could dry up if they are not getting into good positions consistently enough.
Kyogo Furuhashi’s struggles in front of goal have been most acute. He has scored one goal in over 1000 minutes from an xG of 5.35.
He has missed 12 big chances for Blues this season, meaning he is missing a big chance every 83 minutes.
You could make a case from the data though that if he gets another chance next season the goals may come because he knows how to work his way into goal-scoring positions.
All strikers miss big chances. Zan Vipotnik is the top scorer in the league and has missed 12, but few have missed them at quite the rate Kyogo did before his injury.
Marvin Ducksch, Jay Stansfield and August Priske have also missed 14 big chances between them with Davies struggling to settle on a preferred forward line.
Perhaps the chopping and changing plays a part in why Blues’ strikers have lacked confidence in front of goal all season. Jay Stansfield’s goal against Preston was one he needed after recent struggles.
Birmingham City forwards Marvin Ducksch and Jay Stansfield
Not potent enough from set pieces
In English football this season, there is a very clear pattern when it comes to set pieces.
Arsenal, Coventry, Lincoln and Bromley have scored the most set piece goals in each of the top four divisions, and they all top their respective leagues.
Teams who want to be in contention at the business end of the season must be good at set pieces both offensively and defensively.
Throughout the season, Blues have left a lot to be desired in these areas.
The team have scored the 12th most set piece goals, with 14 across the whole season. Coventry meanwhile have scored 27.
This cannot be just put down to Blues having lots of relatively small players. There is some height in the Coventry team, but they also have several smaller players.
Blues are looking for a set-piece coach to improve in this area currently to follow the modern trend.
On the defensive end, Blues have conceded 17 goals from set-pieces, the ninth most in the league.
Preston have a big side, and last night’s set piece goal conceded was unconventional, but Blues did not look organised when the play was played in.
The set-piece situation is far from a catastrophe for Davies. Bringing in a dedicated set-piece coach will also surely improve these statistics next season.
Being average when it comes to set-piece is not enough anymore though, if you want to compete at the top end of any league, you must excel in this area.
Birmingham City striker Kyogo Furuhashi
Too many red cards
Only Sheffield United have received more red cards than Birmingham City in the Championship this season.
Jack Robinson is also the only player in the league to be sent off twice, after his early season red cards against Coventry and Hull.
The club’s five red cards have meant they have had to play a total of 188 minutes across the season with ten men.
Red cards happen and are part of football, but to be with ten men for large periods of matches is always going to put the team at a huge disadvantage.
All four of the matches in which Blues played large periods with ten men ended in defeat, and it is hard not to wonder whether those results would have been different with a full complement on the pitch.
A stat like this is a small area in which Blues can easily improve. With the top eight sides making the Championship play-offs next season, just small tweaks may be enough to take Blues across that line.
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