Whether Wales should seek independence from the rest of the United Kingdom is a topic which rarely disappears from the political agenda. With polls projecting that Plaid Cymru, which backs independence, is one of the front runners to form the next government in Wales, where each party stands on independence is timely.

YouGov polling in January found 54% of Welsh people would vote against Welsh independence in a referendum, while 26% would vote for it. The pollsters asked 1,220 adults in early January their top three things they wanted the UK Government to prioritise. Independence was the answer of just 1% of people asked, down from 2% the previous equivalent poll period.

A recent BBC article quotes a poll carried out for them which found support for Welsh independence at 32%, with 52% against and 16% uncertain. The same poll suggests that only 56% of Plaid voters are in favour.

While Plaid Cymru and Reform UK battle it out at the top of the polls, the two parties have opposing views on independence. Reform UK opposes independence.

There are questions of Plaid Cymru as to whether it is following the SNP model which, after getting into power in 2007, secured a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014, which it lost.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, the party leader, has said there would not be a referendum in this term but he wants to use any role it has in government to prove to people it would be possible.

As we run through the key issues ahead of the Senedd election, you can see our debate with the leaders of the six biggest parties on YouTube. Here is where all the Welsh parties stand on independence for Wales.

Labour

Labour does not support a push for Welsh independence. In its manifesto, it says: “Welsh Labour is the party of devolution. Devolution is about giving more people more of a say in the decisions that affect their lives”. It pledges that if re-elected it will “make the case for a Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution and strengthen Wales’ status within the UK”.

Eluned Morgan, the party leader, has previously told the Senedd she wants a “strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom”.

Plaid Cymru

At the 2021 election, Plaid Cymru committed to holding a referendum on Welsh independence by 2026 if the party won a majority of Senedd seats, but it didn’t.

This time around, the party leader has said there will not be a referendum in the next term but no date or timeline is given.

Its manifesto for 2026 reads: “We know that the way the UK is currently structured and governed is unsustainable. Change is both necessary and likely, and a responsible government must prepare for it. Our nation is on a journey to independence, and we will work in partnership with the people of Wales to set out what the next steps on that journey can look like.”

It continues: “We fundamentally believe that the decision on Wales’s political and constitutional future belongs to the people of Wales. We will therefore formally request that the right to decide on the timeline, question and process for an independence referendum be devolved.”

A manifesto pledge is for a future White Paper on Welsh independence –addressing the challenges and setting out the opportunities and positive changes independence would bring for Wales.

The cost attached to a national commission that would look at independence plans is being quoted as £500,000.

Green Party

The Green Party is the only other main party which backs independence, although there is no mention of it in their manifesto.

When the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was published in 2024, Anthony Slaughter said: “Greens believe that independence is not just viable, as the report says, but essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales that we know is possible.

“Independence is the opportunity to truly give power to the people of Wales, enabling us to shape our own future while working closely with our neighbours and other small nations to face our joint challenges and opportunities.”

Lib Dems

In the Welsh Liberal Democrat manifesto for the 2026 Senedd election, the second of the “top five priorities” listed is “Stop independence – keeping Wales focused on the issues that matter to people’s daily lives.”

Further inside the document, it continues: “We believe that Wales is stronger and better off within the United Kingdom, and the United Kingdom is stronger and better off with Wales in it. The Welsh Government and Welsh taxpayers’ money should be focused on delivering for the people of Wales, not on pursuing separation from the rest of the UK.

“We will not spend a single penny of Welsh Government money on the independence agenda. Instead, we will fight for a much fairer deal and stronger voice for Wales within the UK.”

Reform UK

Reform UK opposes independence for Wales.

In the Channel 4 leaders debate, on April 21, the party’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas said: “Rhun’s push for independence will divide Wales. When we just talked about a cohesive country, you want to bring forward a white paper and spend taxpayer money on a white paper for in that will be a distraction for all the issues we need to solve”.

Conservatives

Darren Millar, the Conservative leader, told the Senedd in January that independence was “a fantasy”. In an exchange with the Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, he laid out his party’s position: “When people look at your plans, your so-called hope for the future, it is based on the fantasy that independence would be a good thing for Wales, divorcing ourselves from the rest of the United Kingdom, which would cost taxpayers in this country thousands and thousands of pounds, billions of pounds to our economy.

“It would jeopardise the pensions that are paid to our pensioners, potentially drawing a border, a slate curtain across the Welsh border with England, causing all sorts of problems for our economy.

“And the billions that it would cost would deliver the sort of shock tax rises—many of which you’ve touched on—enormous tax rises, in order to sustain the current levels of expenditure on our public services. It’s just not a credible plan.”