May 11, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: China – Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
Driven by rising demand for phosphorus, arsenic, and selenium in China, the market is projected to continue growing over the next decade. Despite a forecasted deceleration in market performance, the market is expected to expand with a +0.2% CAGR in volume and +1.3% CAGR in value from 2024 to 2035, reaching volumes of 97K tons and a value of $631M by the end of the period.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for phosphorus, arsenic and selenium in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 97K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $631M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionChina’s Consumption of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium
In 2024, approx. 95K tons of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium were consumed in China; leveling off at the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 96K tons in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.
The value of the phosphorus, arsenic and selenium market in China contracted to $546M in 2024, with a decrease of -7.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $592M in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.
ProductionChina’s Production of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium
In 2024, the amount of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium produced in China stood at 98K tons, flattening at the year before. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 0.6% against the previous year. Phosphorus, arsenic and selenium production peaked at 98K tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.
In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium production fell to $572M in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Phosphorus, arsenic and selenium production peaked at $625M in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.
ImportsChina’s Imports of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium
In 2024, imports of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium into China shrank notably to 1.4K tons, with a decrease of -20.5% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, imports saw a mild shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 640%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2K tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium imports shrank slightly to $34M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports saw a abrupt contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 172% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $120M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
Vietnam (311 tons), Japan (278 tons) and Canada (177 tons) were the main suppliers of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium imports to China, together accounting for 53% of total imports. South Korea, Russia, Chile, Mexico, the Philippines, Peru, Finland, Belgium and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Peru (with a CAGR of +21.4%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Japan ($12M) constituted the largest supplier of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium to China, comprising 37% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($3.5M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 9.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from Japan totaled -5.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Canada (-6.8% per year) and South Korea (-15.7% per year).
Import Prices By Country
The average phosphorus, arsenic and selenium import price stood at $23,547 per ton in 2024, picking up by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a abrupt downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the average import price increased by 89%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $80,527 per ton. From 2017 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($53,246 per ton), while the price for Vietnam ($9,589 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+30.4%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.
ExportsChina’s Exports of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium
Phosphorus, arsenic and selenium exports from China rose notably to 4.2K tons in 2024, growing by 12% on 2023. Overall, exports, however, saw a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. The exports peaked at 22K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium exports stood at $18M in 2024. In general, exports, however, saw a deep downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $107M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
Exports By Country
India (963 tons), the United States (670 tons) and Indonesia (313 tons) were the main destinations of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium exports from China, together comprising 47% of total exports. Spain, Turkey, South Korea, Pakistan, the Netherlands, Russia, Brazil, Japan and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +28.6%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest markets for phosphorus, arsenic and selenium exported from China were the Netherlands ($2.3M), the United States ($2M) and South Korea ($1.3M), with a combined 30% share of total exports.
South Korea, with a CAGR of +10.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average phosphorus, arsenic and selenium export price amounted to $4,379 per ton, dropping by -7.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a mild shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 87%. The export price peaked at $5,969 per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($21,128 per ton), while the average price for exports to Spain ($624 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the Netherlands (+11.7%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform