The final Senedd intention voting poll before the election has been released
18:09, 05 May 2026Updated 18:16, 05 May 2026
The Senedd Election takes place on Thursday, May 7
The final YouGov poll of this Senedd Election campaign has been released. It shows Plaid Cymru has jumped ahead of its nearest rivals Reform UK. The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales, show Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party with 33% of the vote share, ahead of Reform UK at 29%.
Cardiff University has suggested that would mean Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would take 34. Once again, Labour is in a distant third and Eluned Morgan, the current First Minister, is again projected to lose her seat.
The Welsh Conservatives have seen a modest increase in their vote share at 9% placing them in fourth which would translate into four seats while the Green Party has dropped into fifth place at 8% which, in this round of results, would only net them two seats in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf and Caerdydd Penarth.
However, that would be their first ever Senedd representation.
Lib Dem leader Jane Dodds would also secure a return to the Senedd, according to this poll.
The election takes place on Thursday, May 7, and will see 96 politicians elected to the Welsh Parliament. This election there are huge,and important changes are coming into force. There will be new constituencies and a new voting system.
Instead of electing one politician for each constituency, six will be elected from each of the 16 new constituencies via a form of proportional representation. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here.
This poll saw 1,125 adults asked questions between April 27 and May 4, 2026.
The poll also found people in Wales would prefer the next government to be formed by a single party (44%) instead of a coalition of multiple parties (32%). When asked “If you had to say, what is the single biggest factor influencing your vote in the upcoming Senedd election?” the most popular answers were “Stopping Reform” and “Immigration”.
When looking at Westminster voting intentions, Plaid Cymru continues to lead with an increase in support for them and Reform, whilst support has lowered for the Greens and Labour.
The projected support for each party is as follows:
- Plaid Cymru: 33%
- Reform UK: 29%
- Labour: 12%
- Conservatives: 9%
- Greens: 8%
- Lib Dems: 6%
- Others: 3%
Analysis from Cardiff University suggests that could mean the following seats for each party:
- Plaid Cymru: 43 seats
- Reform: 34 seats
- Welsh Labour: 12 seats
- The Conservative Party: 4 seats
- The Green Party: 2 seats
- Lib Dems: One
Which means the Senedd could look like this:
In terms of which parties would get each of the six seats in each constituency, the following modelling by Dr Larner explains:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 3, Plaid 2, Lab 1
Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid 4, Reform 2,
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Plaid 3, Reform 1 , Lab 1, Green 1
Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Plaid 2 , Lab 1
Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid 4, Reform 2
Clwyd: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1
Fflint Wrecsam: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid 4, Reform 2
Gŵyr Abertawe: Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Reform 3, Plaid 2, Lab 1
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid 3, Reform 3
Labour’s decline:
This chart shows how much Labour’s support has declined, using YouGov polling for more than 12 years.
While voting takes place on Thursday, May 7, the count takes place the following day, during the daytime.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “What this final poll tells us is that the broad shape of Thursday’s result is now fairly clear, even if precise seat totals remain uncertain.
“Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33%with Reform on 29. Whereas the previous YouGov poll had the two parties tied at 29% each.
“Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.It also highlights how relatively small changes in vote share can have outsized impacts in terms of seat allocation.
“That four-point lead is translating into a projected 43 seats against Reform’s 34. Add Labour’s projected 12 seats, the Greens’ 2 and the Liberal Democrats‘ 1, and the arithmetic for a progressive majority government — requiring 49 of 96 seats — looks considerably more comfortable than many anticipated. Again however, even tiny changes that are too small for polls to detect could mean the eventual result is very different.
“That picture is broadly consistent with where the polling consensus has settled across multiple firms in recent weeks, with Plaid in the low-to-mid thirties, Reform in the high twenties, and Labour anchored in low double figures.
“The more significant story for Thursday is therefore not the headline vote shares but what happens in the room afterwards and on that question, the 43% of voters who expect Plaid to lead the next government may well be right.”