In brief
- UK Labour faces heavy losses in local polls across England and elections for the semiautonomous legislatures in Scotland and Wales.
- Should the results for Labour be as dire as polls predict, the prime minister’s leadership could be challenged.
Voters are heading to the polls in Wales, Scotland and dozens of English councils — and the results could spell disaster for United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
With the prime minister’s popularity in the doldrums from a weak economy and repeated questions about his judgement, rival parties are framing Thursday’s votes as a referendum on Starmer and his 2-year-old government.
The next national election does not have to be held until 2029, but a wipeout on Thursday could tip a restive Labour Party into revolt against its unpopular leader.
In his café, Cassius Walker-Hunt is making another espresso. His coffee machine is an impressive piece of engineering, but not as challenging (or dangerous) to operate as the blast furnace he used to maintain at the local steel works.
He was the fourth generation of his family to work at the plant in Port Talbot in Wales — a Swansea Bay town long known as a hub for steel production.
However, in 2024, he, along with around 2,000 others, was made redundant when the last coal-powered furnace was shut.
Some of his colleagues moved elsewhere to find work. Walker-Hunt stayed, opening his business, hoping to play a part in the rejuvenation of the industrial town.
Cassius Walker-Hunt was a fourth-generation steel worker until he was made redundant in 2024. Source: SBS News
But it’s been tough.
“Initially we had a lot of payouts. The people who did lose their jobs had a lot of money, including myself. There was a lot of government support at the time, but that’s all gone now,” he says.
He’ll be voting for Plaid Cymru at this election, the left-leaning Welsh nationalists.
“They’re not looking at Westminster; they’re looking after the Welsh people first, and I think that’s very important.”
Plaid Cymru’s reason for being is Welsh independence, although they insist that’s not on the agenda in the next parliament.
“We want to see an independent Wales eventually, but we know there are far deeper-rooted problems we need to resolve here and now, for example the cost of living crisis,” explains Sera Evans, the party’s lead candidate in the seat of Afan Ogwr Rhondda.
Labour’s dominance under threat
The ‘Party of Wales’ is benefiting from deep frustration with Labour at all levels of power.
Labour has been the largest party in the Welsh Senedd (parliament) since it was established 27 years ago, retaining control of government after each election.
But polls suggest that’s set to change.
Plaid Cymru’s Sera Evans says she wants to see an independent Wales eventually but there are bigger problems to solve right now. Source: SBS News
Labour has dominated Welsh politics for a century and has led the Welsh government since devolution began in 1999. Now, polls suggest it may be pushed into third place behind Plaid Cymru and right-wing populists Reform UK.
Peter Bevan spent more than 50 years at the steelworks, losing a couple of fingers in the process.
Now retired, he can’t quite believe this region, so closely linked to mining, steel production and trade unionism, could ever fall to another party.
“We’d always say you could put a donkey up for Labour and they’d walk it in,” he laughs.
“The last few years I’ve seen a difference, people are getting more choosy and running Labour down.”
Reform UK capitalises on voter anger
As Peter heads off for a stroll along the Port Talbot waterfront, Tom Randall stops for a chat. After voting for Labour and the Conservatives in the past, he’s backing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
“I think things need a bit of a shake-up,” he explains. “I’m not saying they’re the long-term answer. I just want a bit of a change. I don’t feel like anything’s changed. Things have got worse, so why not try ’em.”
Reform believes frustration with Britain’s traditional parties will see it benefit from a ‘protest vote’, along with rising anger over immigration.
“It is definitely a concern of a lot of voters I’m speaking to, particularly around illegal migration at the impacts that’s having on local communities,” says Benjamin Hodge McKenna, Reform’s lead candidate for the area.
Benjamin Hodge-McKenna, the candidate for Reform UK in Port Talbot, says local voters are particularly concerned about the impacts of illegal migration in their area. Source: SBS News
Yet it’s not an issue the Welsh parliament can control; immigration policy is determined in London, and the English Channel, where most irregular migration occurs, is more than 400 kilometres away.
Leadership pressure grows
The fact so many voters in Wales, Scotland and English councils are voting on national issues is a problem for the prime minister.
Should the results for Starmer’s Labour Party be as dire as predicted, rivals to his leadership could use the opportunity to launch a challenge.
Alternately, Starmer could face pressure from the party to set a timetable for his departure after an orderly leadership contest.
“His parliamentary party are unsure as to whether now is the right time to unseat him,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “So there might be a stay of execution.”
But, Bale added: “It’s a case of when rather than if he goes.”
Starmer has largely stayed off the campaign trail, letting others speak for the party.
“It is always worrying when you’re an incumbent because people want change quickly,” concedes Labour chair Anna Turley MP.
“We feel the sense of urgency, of course we do, because we all want change and we want to deliver as quickly as possible. Sometimes the frustration with that pace of change means that people aren’t quite seeing and feeling it.”
Many lifelong Labour voters in the industrial heartland of Wales would agree. It’s why they’re casting a ballot for an alternative, many for the first time.
“My dad was a coal miner, so it was entrenched in us really in the Valleys we’re working class and Labour was the party of the working-class people, but I’m a little disillusioned at the moment,” explains local resident Scott Perkins.
“I’m going to give a vote to Plaid Cymru, to see if they can make a difference.”
— With reporting by the Associated Press.
For the latest from SBS News, download our app and subscribe to our newsletter.