These are the least predictable local elections the capital has seen for a long time, but here goes…

I had decided not to make predictions – certainly not in public – about the outcomes of this year’s votes in the capital’s 32 boroughs. Lewis Baston and I, as we embarked on compiling our epic guide to the elections, London Decides, made a decision ourselves. It was that we would not make predictions, because doing so would only end in tears. We have instead concluded each borough profile with a section called What To Watch For, which sets out a balance of probabilities and identified factors on which results will hinge.

And so, here I am, on borough elections day, making a full set of predictions. Well, sort of.

I should make clear that these are my predictions, half-predictions and cries for help (see headline) and mine alone. Though obviously informed by the wisdom of Lewis, which is far greater than mine, they are entirely my work in all their rash, self-harming foolishness. But, in the end, feeling a bit light-headed after several weeks of very intensive work, the temptation was too much. Who knows, perhaps as many as half of them will turn out to be right.

SECTION ONE: VERY CONFIDENT

In the case of six boroughs, I am very confident about what will happen. I am completely sure that the Liberal Democrats will retain control of Richmond upon Thames and Kingston upon Thames and almost completely sure they will do the same in Sutton, with the right wing vote there splitting to their advantage. I am very confident that the Conservatives will, as always, win Kensington & Chelsea and also Harrow, even though it is a borough that can surprise. Finally, in a year where we could see around a dozen boroughs ending up under No Overall Control (NoC), I am certain that Redbridge will be one of them.

SECTION TWO: PRETTY CONFIDENT 

Labour is on course for heavy losses. I am, though, pretty confident that the party will secure majorities, if reduced, in Hammersmith & Fulham, Ealing, Hounslow, Brent, Barking & Dagenham (despite the challenge of Reform UK) and Merton (despite the challenge of the Lib Dems, which I think will come up just short). I am almost Very Confident that Reform will gain Bexley from the Tories, but have succumbed to a small bout of cowardice. That said, if Reform don’t win there I will be very surprised. The same applies to Havering. Will Tower Hamlets stay in the hands of Aspire? I think so. And here are two NoC punts: Camden, even though a friend of a friend who lives there thinks Labour will hang on, and Croydon, where I got the feeling while visiting there on Monday that Labour might win the mayoralty while the council will be something of a salad.

SECTION THREE: PROBABLY, BUT

Here I enter in the realm of half-predictions, the terrain of the tentative, the valley of uncertainty. I think the Conservatives are going to hold Hillingdon, but NoC can’t be ruled out. I think Enfield, Waltham Forest and Bromley will go NoC, but majority outcomes are achievable. I think the Greens will probably win the Hackney mayoralty, but the council make-up? Too close to call. Another NoC? If forced to place a bet, I would put it on the Tories recapturing Westminster, but it wouldn’t be a big bet. Greenwich will probably just about stay Labour. So will Islington, I just about think. And then there’s Newham, where a defeat of Labour would be historic. I think it probably won’t happen. But there again…

SECTION FOUR: HELP!

These are little more than guesses. In Southwark, it seems possible that Labour will survive, but a red, yellow and green NoC could happen too. In Lewisham, it seems possible that both the mayoralty and the council will stay in Labour hands, but if the Green tide rises high enough, they won’t. Lambeth is a cliff-edge in that regard – Labour could lose a lot of votes there and still retain a lot of seats, but also lose enough to lose a lot. Haringey? See above, but throw the Lib Dems into the mix. Wandsworth? The Greens will hurt Labour more than Reform will hurt the Tories, but the signals from the ground are rather mixed. And finally, Barnet. Will Labour hold on or will the Tories make a comeback? Help!

CONCLUSION

My firm prediction is that almost anything could have happened by the time London’s polling stations close. See you on the other side.

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