Words by ITV News Election Analyst Colin Rallings
The English local election results so far bear out most of the predictions made before polling day.
The detail of the competition between the parties varies across the country, but the overall pattern is clear.
Reform UK is doing very well, if perhaps falling short of sweeping all before it.
There are also signs of solid progress by the Greens, with the Liberal Democrats advancing in the limited areas of the country it has begun to make its own.
By contrast, and for the second year in succession, a majority of the electorate has turned against the two traditional parties which together have been in power since the Second World War.
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Reform is taking seats from Labour in many urban areas from Plymouth in the south, to Salford and Wigan in the north.
That pattern is certain to be reinforced as the day progresses.
It has the Conservatives in its sights in the county elections, where results mirror those last year, when the Tories lost control of every county they were defending.
Essex looks certain to fall direct to Farage’s party as Kent did last year; in Hampshire, on the other hand, the Conservatives have suffered losses to both Reform and the Liberal Democrats.
Gains for such seemingly opposed parties are indicative of the fragmentation of the party system which it itself often reflects local demography and no longer involves a straight exchange of votes between Labour and the Conservatives as happened in the past.
The Conservatives do retain support in some more affluent and rural areas where the Liberal Democrats pose the greatest challenge.
Labour is losing seats to Reform, but many of those losses have been magnified by the party also shedding votes to its left, in particular to the Greens.
London, where there have been wholesale borough elections, reflects the new politics.
In Havering, for example, bordering Essex and where one of the local Conservative MPs recently defected to Reform, Reform has gained almost 40 seats and now sits on a large majority.
On the other side of the capital in Ealing and in Hammersmith and Fulham, Labour has lost seats but retained control of the councils with Reform nowhere to be seen.
The Conservatives have won back the totemic council of Westminster and deprived Labour of its majority in Wandsworth.
The figures suggest, however, that the Labour vote has fallen back and fragmented rather than the Conservatives picking up support.
Conservative Party supporters celebrate after the party took Westminster City Council from Labour Credit: PA
The Lib Dems have also made progress in boroughs they already controlled like Richmond upon Thames and Sutton.
In Richmond, where the Greens benefited from a pact with the Liberal Democrats four years ago, they were wiped out in a council which now only has only Liberal Democrat councillors.
What still underpins a lot of this, ten years after the event, is the spectre of Brexit.
Leave supporting areas are those most prone to register gains for Reform and also show signs of a rise in usual turnout levels as occurred in 2016; in places which voted to remain in the EU, the party still struggles.
The new multi-party system can also magnify the benefit for those who get out in front.
Keir Starmer won his stonking 172 seat majority at the 2024 general election with just 34% of the national vote.
Reform will be the clear winner at these elections but its overall share of the vote is likely to be about 30% as it was last year with a whole of cluster of other parties gathering behind it waiting for any slip up.
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