Richard Wood, founder of Upgrade Holyrood and a member of Liberal Democrats for Electoral Reform, told The Herald that changes are needed to balance Scotland’s “disproportionate” electoral system.
The proportional representation campaigner remarked: “In Edinburgh and Lothians East, the extent of this problem isn’t massive compared to other regions such as the North East.
Reform MSP for Edinburgh and Lothians East Angela Ross. (Image: Jane Barlow)
“However, if AMS worked as intended and if all the votes in the region were determined by the list vote, which is the intended outcome of AMS, you would have a situation where the SNP would be down one seat and Reform up one seat.
“I think it’s important to highlight, you might think if you’re a voter in Edinburgh and Lothian’s East: ‘Well, oh, that’s good, Reform lost out in the seat,’ but the thing is it can happen to any party at any time, and I think we need a level playing field there.
“All parties except the SNP lost out this time,” Mr Wood said. “The SNP has lost out in the past and who knows in the future, there’s the possibility that Reform gains from this at some point.”
In the Edinburgh and Lothians East region, the SNP secured five constituency seats — Edinburgh South Western, Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith, Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs, and Midlothian North.
Meanwhile, the Greens won in Edinburgh Central, the Lib Dems in Edinburgh Northern and Edinburgh North Western, and Labour in Edinburgh Southern.
As a result, three Green MSPs were elected on the list, followed by two for Labour, and one each for the Tories and Reform.
According to Ballot Box Scotland, if the current AMS system worked as intended, 40 SNP MSPs would have been returned (-18), followed by 23 from Reform (+6), 21 from Labour (+4), 20 from the Greens (+5), 14 from the Conservatives (+2) and 11 from the Lib Dems (+1).
Of course, the SNP’s success came from winning 78% of the 73 seats elected via first-past-the-post; despite securing 38% of the constituency vote.
Across Scotland, the party of government won 45% of seats, after factoring in the list results.
As the result of a fractured unionist vote (four parties fought over 60% of the electorate), pro-independence parties returned 73 MSPs (57%) on 41% of the vote.
Despite losing two constituencies, the data shows the SNP overperformed compared to vote share. (Image: NQ)
Speaking on BBC Scotland’s Sunday Show last weekend, Edinburgh University political science professor Ailsa Henderson said the disproportionality resulted from increased split ticker voting.
She said: “Our results are always more proportional than UK elections because of the electoral system we use, but this is the least proportional one and partly that is to do with split ticket voting – so people voting for different parties on the constituency and on the list.
“The ability of the list to correct for disproportionality in the constituencies only works if people vote for the same party on the constituency and the list.”
Mr Wood told The Herald that a more proportional outcome could be achieved by modifying the AMS system.
He said: “I think what fundamentally is needed is a sensible grown-up conversation between politicians of all parties in Scotland to discuss this and recognise that there has been this big mismatch between seats and votes.
“One option, which might have the most political will, could be roughly keeping the same system but modifying it to correct that imbalance between first past the post and those list seats.
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“You could add a number of list seats to each region to make the split fifty-fifty,” he remarked.
“I think STV is another option. It is used in local government, and voters have a good say over individual candidates and real choice to rank across party, which I think is good to reduce intense partisanship.”
Another change which could make the system more fair would be to allow people to vote for individual candidates on a party’s regional list, Mr Wood adds.
“You could still potentially have two ballot papers to keep things straightforward, but on the peach ballot paper, you could have options to choose your favourite candidates in the party you’re voting for to improve voter [choice] and improve transparency.”