Temperatures are set to rise after a chilly start to May
20:16, 16 May 2026Updated 21:05, 16 May 2026
Sunshine and warm weather at Bristol Harbourside earlier in spring(Image: PAUL GILLIS / Reach Plc)
Bristol could be basking in temperatures as high as 25C in a matter of days amid reports a heatwave could be on the way.
The Met Office’s day-by-day forecast now extends to Friday (May 22) and the outlook for Bristol is looking promising, with highs of 25C expected by 4pm.
That contrasts to a high of just 14C today (Saturday, May 16) with cooler temperatures expected for much of the week until a sudden change on Thursday, when 24C is forecast.
However, forecasters are remaining cautious about just how hot it’s going to get over the bank holiday weekend and how long the warmer spell will last – particularly if it will reach the three-day threshold that qualifies for it to be classed as a heatwave.
Britain will bask under a high pressure system by the end of next week, meaning temperatures will rise and the weather over Bristol and the West Country will settle down with a lot less rain.
But exactly where that high pressure will be centred will make all the difference when it comes to just how hot it will be next weekend, according to Met Office weather expert Alex Burkill.
He said that a range of computer forecasting models used by the Met Office to pull together the most accurate predictions showed huge variances in the estimated temperatures next weekend – and it all depends on where the high pressure is.
Models which show the high pressure building in the Atlantic and reaching the UK by the weekend show the temperatures soaring as high as 24 or 25C.
But the models that show the high pressure positioned out to the west or north west of the UK in the Atlantic could still mean shivering in northerly winds, and temperatures could struggle to even reach average for this time of year.
“The uncertainty stems from trying to work out exactly where the high pressure will be, by the end of the week,” he said on the forecaster’s YouTube channel.
“There are big questions – obviously it’s a bank holiday weekend coming up – and so what the weather is likely to bring is high pressure, which is set to become more dominant across the country, by the end of the week and more so over the weekend. So that should settle things down.
Met Office weather expert Alex Burkill explains how different computer models are predicting different scenarios for the Whitsun Bank Holiday Weekend at the end of May 2026, pictured on May 16.(Image: Met Office)
“The position of the high is all important for how warm or how chilly it’s going to be. If the high pressure shifts slightly to the west, it will make a difference to temperatures.
“There are signs that higher pressure is going to come. It’s just a little difficult to say how warm it’s going to be. Nonetheless, I am expecting temperatures to rise. It’s cold for the time of year at the moment,” he added.
The most optimistic computer models show hot temperatures on Sunday and Monday. “It’s definitely not a guarantee but there are signs that we are going to see things warming up as we go through next week – mid to late teens to low 20s is the more likely outcome.
“High pressure is likely to build in the coming week. It’s going to take a while to get there, so there will be some changeable weather through the start of next week. And then we are going to see a rise in our temperatures, going from below average for the time of year at the moment, to a fair bit higher – exactly how much higher than it is at the moment? Well that’s still to be determined.
“Even if we do get temperatures peaking, it’s quite unlikely that it will be all three days of the bank holiday weekend that will be getting those high temperatures. We’ll have the details more firmed up as we get nearer the time,” he explained.
Bristol and the West Country already had one taste of summer – if only briefly – back in April when the region was hotter than Barcelona for just one day.