Aviva’s pension profits are under pressure, but RBC still sees upside Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Aviva PLC’s (LSE:AV.) core insurance and wealth businesses are performing solidly, though intensifying competition in the lucrative pension risk transfer market is beginning to squeeze margins, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
The broker said Aviva’s first-quarter trading reflected resilience in UK and Canadian general insurance operations, with claims performance remaining firmly on track to meet full-year targets.
In UK motor insurance, Aviva has continued to push through price rises ahead of the wider market, despite expectations of mid-single-digit claims inflation this year.
Wealth management was another bright spot, with net inflows rising 49% to £3.3 billion as higher wages boosted workplace pension contributions and tax year-end demand supported retail investment flows.
Aviva remained confident of achieving its target of £280 million in wealth operating profit by the 2027 financial year, helped by growth opportunities linked to artificial intelligence and the Financial Conduct Authority’s new “targeted support” regime.
The main area of concern for RBC analyst Mandeep Jagpal was bulk annuities, aka pension risk transfer (PRT), where fierce competition among insurers seeking to write bulk annuity business has driven pricing tighter.
Aviva’s retirement margin fell sharply to 1.2% from 3.6% a year earlier as lower credit spreads and more competitive pricing weighed on returns.
RBC maintained its ‘outperform’ rating with a 770p price target, implying upside of around 24% from the last close of 620.2p.
The results saw shares in rivals Legal & General and Standard Life boosted. For Aviva, PRT is “expect[ed] to get worse before it gets better,” said Jagpal.
RBC warned that competition in the UK market could intensify further following the takeovers of Just Group by Brookfield and Pension Insurance Corporation by Athora, “as the new owners look to deploy capital and assets”.