To do that, Ukrainian drones would need to cover at least 3,000 kilometers. The Ukrainians have not yet carried out strikes at such a distance, but Ukrainian drones have already attacked the Kola Peninsula and the Murmansk area.
All-Out Hunt for Russian Air-Defense Systems
In 2021, Russia was able to show off its Pantsir-S1 systems at the May 9 parade in Moscow. Photo: AP Photo/Scanpix
The effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone attacks has risen noticeably recently thanks to Ukraine’s systematic hunt for Russian army air-defense systems.
“We are destroying more and more of their air defenses. I think that in July we will already destroy twice as many as in March,” said Yevhen Karas, commander of Ukraine’s 413th Drone Regiment. “That means Russia can no longer maintain its air defenses at the same level. Their air defense is becoming like a wooden picket fence, with big gaps in it.”
In some sectors, Karas claimed, Russia’s air defense has degraded so badly that they are already afraid to bring in new systems.
“We may have a ‘window open’ there for several months before they come up with something,” Karas said. “These are real open gates into Russia’s defenses for us. For us, it is an aerial highway into Russia. Russian generals are afraid to admit it because they fear for their positions. If they somehow close it, we will open a new window.”
According to Oryx, an organization that gathers information from open sources, Ukraine has destroyed 314 Russian army surface-to-air missile systems, and more than a hundred additional systems have been seriously damaged. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, even more such systems have been destroyed.
To protect oil and military plants, and also against Ukrainian long-range drones, Russia mainly uses Pantsir and Tor systems. According to Oryx, Ukraine has definitely damaged or destroyed at least 45 Pantsirs and 85 Tors in various versions. Most of these hits have occurred over the past year.
Experts estimate that a Pantsir system costs $10–15 million, and a Tor system $20–25 million.
According to Karas, before its full-scale assault on Ukraine four years ago, Russia had about 140 Pantsir systems and roughly the same number of Tor systems. Based on those figures, Ukraine has already destroyed at least 40 percent of these air-defense systems used against long-range drones.
Ukraine is destroying the systems faster than Russia can produce new ones. Karas claimed that Russia can currently produce one to three Pantsir and Tor systems per month.