Since last weekend, everybody in the United Kingdom seems to be talking about one thing: the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, which is already being framed as one of the most important votes regarding Britain’s political future in the coming years. Residents of the northwestern constituency will go to the polls not only to fill the vacant seat of Labour MP Josh Simons, but potentially to decide the future of both the governing Labour Party and the British populist right.

At the early escalatory phase of the internal revolt against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Simons—who had already resigned from his position as Parliamentary Secretary for the Cabinet Office—gave up his mandate specifically to allow Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership. The move came after more than 95 Labour MPs reportedly called for Starmer’s resignation following disastrous local election results earlier in May, which saw Nigel Farage’s Reform UK make major gains across England.

While Starmer has consistently reaffirmed his intention to remain both prime minister and Labour leader, many inside the party increasingly view him as the primary reason behind Labour’s collapse in popularity and Reform’s continued rise.

The ‘King of the North’ to Challenge Starmer

Burnham has consequently emerged as the leading alternative. According to a YouGov survey published on 18 May, 47 per cent of Labour members ranked Burnham as their first preference for leader, compared to 31 per cent for Starmer, while 59 per cent placed Burnham ahead of the prime minister overall.

However, before Burnham can realistically enter a leadership race, he first needs to win Makerfield—and that is far from guaranteed.

Located in Greater Manchester between Wigan and St Helens, the constituency is predominantly white British, post-industrial, and heavily shaped by its coal-mining and manufacturing past. Although traditionally a safe Labour seat, the area voted strongly for Brexit and increasingly reflects the broader political realignment unfolding across northern England, where culturally conservative working-class voters have become increasingly receptive to right-wing populist parties such as Reform UK.

‘Burnham himself is significantly outperforming Labour’s national brand’

Burnham will face Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and Army reservist positioned as a ‘local champion’ capable of pulling traditional Labour voters towards Reform in the heart of the Red Wall.

The first Survation constituency poll already showed Burnham only narrowly ahead, leading Kenyon by 43 per cent to 40 per cent. The same poll also showed Reform leading Labour locally in Westminster voting intention by double digits, suggesting Burnham himself is significantly outperforming Labour’s national brand—further strengthening his image as the strongest possible challenger to Starmer.

A former cabinet minister and previous Labour leadership candidate, Burnham built his national profile during his tenure as Mayor of Greater Manchester, especially through his clashes with Boris Johnson’s government during the COVID pandemic. Often referred to as the ‘King of the North’, Burnham combines soft-left economics and regional patriotism with a noticeably more moderate position on immigration and cultural issues than much of Labour’s progressive wing.

Civil War on the Right

Yet Makerfield is not only becoming the central battlefield of Labour’s internal crisis. The by-election is also rapidly turning into a defining contest regarding the future of the British populist right itself.

The main reason is the emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain movement. Lowe, a former Reform MP, broke with Nigel Farage earlier this year following a bitter internal dispute and subsequently launched Restore Britain as a more radical anti-immigration alternative centred around a strict mass deportation agenda. According to Lowe, the movement had already surpassed 110,000 members by March.

Restore is now polling at around 7 per cent in Makerfield, potentially enough to split the anti-Labour vote and hand victory to Burnham.

That is precisely why the by-election has become existential for Reform UK. Makerfield represents the party’s first genuine opportunity to prove it can directly defeat Labour in a traditional Red Wall constituency rather than merely damage the Conservatives. Victory would reinforce the argument that Reform is evolving from a protest movement into a viable political force capable of replacing Labour across parts of northern England.

Defeat, however—especially if caused by Restore siphoning away decisive right-wing votes—could expose the limits of Farage’s electoral strategy and weaken his authority within the broader populist movement.

The conflict has already escalated publicly. Reform figures have increasingly attacked Lowe and Restore Britain, warning that a vote for Restore is effectively a vote for Burnham and Labour. Tensions intensified further after Elon Musk briefly endorsed Lowe and Restore on X, prompting Farage to accuse the US billionaire of helping split the right-wing vote.

For Restore Britain, meanwhile, Makerfield is equally important. The movement currently possesses only one MP—Lowe himself—and has no electoral track record at parliamentary level. A strong result, around 7–10 per cent, could nevertheless demonstrate that a political space exists to the right of Reform and establish Restore as a lasting force rather than a temporary splinter movement driven by personal grievances.

Lowe himself has repeatedly argued that Reform has become overly centralized around Farage and insufficiently hardline on immigration, while Restore represents the ‘real’ anti-establishment movement willing to pursue significantly more radical deportation policies.

That being said, if Burnham manages to return to Westminster and eventually reach Downing Street, Farage could always point to Lowe as the main reason behind the potential continuation of Labour rule and its negative consequences.

As a result, Makerfield is no longer simply about who becomes MP for a single constituency. It is increasingly being treated as a test of whether Labour can survive its internal crisis, whether Andy Burnham can become Britain’s next prime minister, and whether the British populist right is heading towards a lasting fracture.

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