The opening phase of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, which began on June 12-13, focused on infiltrated covert operators hunting high-value targets with small strike drones and anti-tank guided missiles. It bears significant similarities to Ukraine’s Spider’s Web operation, less than two weeks earlier.
This was not some sort of copycat, since Israel has employed similar tactics in the past, and yet both operations achieved deep penetration into heavily defended enemy territory through smart integration of covert assets with relatively unsophisticated capabilities such as small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Much like Ukraine’s recent drone raid on Russia’s strategic aircraft fleet, Israel’s action demonstrated sophisticated intelligence integration and covert asset deployment, even though it employed conventional air power as the primary kinetic component rather than relying solely on small systems.
There are some profound and urgent lessons to be drawn, not least by NATO militaries heavily reliant on high-end systems. The risk is that much like “Fortress” Singapore in 1941, the West’s greatest investments may become vulnerable or useless when confronted by a nimbler and more imaginative enemy.
So what should commanders conclude from Rising Lion and Spider’s Web?
Firstly, relying on ground-based air defenses alone, regardless of their level of sophistication, is ultimately a severe vulnerability, especially in the age of ubiquitous small precision-guided munitions and other strike weapons that can be easily employed by nearby covert operatives and asymmetric delivery means.
Indeed, with its radar taken out by anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and small UAS, the effectiveness of Iranian air defenses proved minimal, with successful Israeli penetration of multiple defense layers and systematic destruction of key air defense elements. Modern air power, therefore, remains essential to retain an air defense infrastructure worthy of that name. Iran has said it is acquiring advanced Su-35 fighter jets from Russia to significantly improve its air defense capabilities, although this effort began too late and will require years to come to fruition, even assuming the delivery proceeds as planned.
Secondly, Israel has been able to reach a remarkably high mission capability level for its fighter fleet and maintains an impressive degree of sortie generation against a large and layered air defense network, without suffering a single loss (as of the writing of this analysis on June 16). This speaks volumes to the importance of readiness, sustainment, and adequate munition stockpiling, among other things, offering important takeaways for NATO countries.
Thirdly, the opening phase of the Israeli operation further confirms the unique value and operational flexibility that small combat drones offer in modern operations. When employed by skilled operators and combined with other capabilities, they become much more than mere force multipliers, and can unlock novel options to conduct missions (e.g., the destruction of enemy air defenses — known as DEAD) that typically require highly specialized and expensive assets and concepts of operations characterized by higher risks for personnel and equipment.
NATO and individual allies must take stock of these lessons and expedite the integration of small drones across their forces. NATO planners should regard small UAS as key tools to reimagine some of the most complex and riskier missions the alliance will have to conduct. And crucially, intelligence services and military staff officers must consider national vulnerabilities to such attacks. In a world dominated by containerized trade, it’s all too easy to imagine the West’s enemies pre-positioning highly effective attack systems in our back yards — places as innocuous as truck stops and warehouses.
Western intelligence agencies will be poring over the details of what Rising Lion can teach them, and will already have been doing the same with Spider’s Web.
So, what exactly happened? Rising Lion was a comprehensive campaign primarily targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, military command structure, and scientific, military and intelligence personnel. The operation represents a significant escalation in the decades-long shadow conflict between the two nations, and marks the full transition from mostly covert operations to direct military confrontation. The timing of the operation, which was still continuing on June 16, occurred immediately after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) first censure of Iran in 20 years and Tehran’s subsequent announcement of expanded enrichment capabilities. This suggested a calculated response to perceived nuclear escalation, which Israel used as the rationale for launching the attack.
The operation employed a complex combination of pre-deployed covert special operators and overwhelming airpower to destroy a significant portion of Iranian defensive capabilities and severely degrade its military command structure, de facto paralyzing the regime’s response.
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Based on available evidence, the initial phase likely involved Mossad operatives deploying covert assets within Iranian territory to degrade Iran’s integrated air defense network. These infiltrated groups designated targets for air-launched standoff munitions and used precision-guided weapons such as the Spike non-line-of-sight (NLOS) anti-tank guided missile for accurate strikes against key radar installations and air-defense launchers, along with small one-way attack drones for targeted destruction of missile transporter-erector-launchers (TEL) of surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in the country’s central and western regions.
Some unconfirmed reports claimed that Mossad or local Israeli assets established a kamikaze drone base near Tehran for coordinated strikes, confirming Israel’s unchallenged infiltration and surveillance of the Iranian deep rear by way of a robust network of local cells and multi-source intelligence access.
This initial effort aimed at opening corridors through Iran’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system and allowing Israel to establish air superiority. Once this was achieved, Israel launched the second phase, unleashing a massive conventional air campaign utilizing approximately 200 aircraft to attack hundreds of targets across central and western Iran.
The high operational tempo likely pushed some Israeli aircraft to their operational limits, hence the need to deploy air refueling planes to extend operational range. Still, so far, the Israeli air force seems to have maintained an impressive degree of sortie generation, with dozens of daily airstrikes continuing through the third day of the attack.
The Israeli strike packages consisted of multiple assets, including F-16Is armed with and GBU-39B Small Diameter Bombs, F-15A and D with, among others, heavier SPICE 1000 precision glide munitions and 910kg (2,000lb) GBU-31 joint direct attack munitions (JDAM) to hit hardened targets, and F-35I Adir stealth fighters for advanced penetration.
Preliminary evidence also indicates the use of Blue Sparrow air-launched medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) against targets deeper into Iranian territory, with booster sections recovered in Iraq confirming their deployment. The use of KC-707 refueling aircraft, one of which was spotted while refueling an F-16I over Syrian airspace, provided crucial operational flexibility, allowing extended loiter time and additional range.
With the Iranian ground-based air defense network severely degraded, Israel was even able to deploy large high-altitude Heron surveillance drones to improve its monitoring of Iranian movements and identify MRBM launchers and other targets.
Based on a preliminary battle damage assessment, the operation seems to have achieved substantial effects against Iran’s military structure and nuclear program, with multiple military installations severely damaged or destroyed. Videos showed the impact of several large munitions on Iran’s main enrichment facility at Natanz , and a series of strikes also against the Esfahan nuclear complex , both confirmed by the IAEA. Additional facilities in Tabriz were also targeted, along with the Kermanshah underground Missile Base — believed to store ballistic missiles – and IRGC and Artesh leadership compounds in Tehran.
On June 15, Israeli strikes focused of Iranian industrial and military targets, including energy facilities, MRBM launchers, airbases, a long-range surveillance radar, and an aerial refueling aircraft parked at Mashad International airport in the country’s far northeast. The goal was to take out what remained of the modest and aging Iranian air force, and curb the regime’s ability to challenge Israeli air dominance. While the operation is still ongoing and the full extent of the material damage is yet to be determined, it appears that neither the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant nor the new underground Natanz facility near the Kolang Gaz chain — considered among the most protected nuclear sites in the country — have so far been targeted by Israeli forces.
To date, the operation’s most significant achievement is arguably the systematic elimination of Iran’s senior military leadership, including Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of IRGC Aerospace Forces, and multiple other senior officials across different command structures. This has severely weakened the Iranian forces command and control structure and jeopardized its response.
Furthermore, the targeting of scientific personnel represents a particularly significant aspect of the operation, with the elimination of at least nine nuclear scientists, including Fereydoun Abbasi, Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, and other key figures in Iran’s nuclear program. This dual approach of targeting both infrastructure and key personnel suggests a comprehensive strategy to degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities across multiple levels, potentially setting back the program by years through the loss of institutional knowledge and experienced personnel.
Overall, the strategic implications of Rising Lion extend far beyond the immediate (and considerable) tactical gains, potentially reshaping regional security and establishing new precedents for preemptive military action.
Israel’s ability to project power deep into Iranian territory is now virtually unchallenged and fundamentally alters the strategic calculus with Tehran for the foreseeable future. Despite a few salvos of medium-range ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones that killed some 20 people along with dozens of wounded, Teheran’s conventional deterrence fell short of its main goal and showed significant limits due to its narrow pool of capabilities and their modest performance.
The operation’s impact on Iran’s nuclear program timeline remains a subject of assessment, though the combination of infrastructure damage and human capital losses will likely create significant delays in program advancement. The impact on broader military and intelligence thinking, both for future covert operations and for addressing vulnerabilities, is unknown, but will surely be considerable.
Federico Borsari is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a cohort of the NATO 2030 Global Fellowship. At CEPA, he focuses on issues at the intersection between technology and international security, in particular unmanned systems and autonomy, and his portfolio also includes NATO and transatlantic defense and security.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Date: June 5, 2025
Time: 9:00 am to 12:00 pm CET
Europe’s Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.