Tuesday 17 June 2025 6:00 am
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Monday 16 June 2025 3:30 pm
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(Photo by Stefan Rousseau – Pool/Getty Images)
As Mark Carney balances political principles with market realities, post-tariff Canada could learn from Brexit Britain, writes Michael Martins in today’s Notebook
Carney’s Canada: A missive from the front lines of American tariffs
On a recent visit to Toronto, I was struck by a telling shift in the country’s political mood – not in its media headlines (yet), but in its bar and restaurant patios. As the summer “patio season” kicks into gear, Canadians are discovering that nearly all US alcohol brands have vanished from local shelves. In a country where 75 per cent of the economy is reliant on its much bigger neighbour to the south, the absence is no longer just symbolic. It’s starting to sting.
Many Canadians took President Trump’s “51st state” jibes personally – Toronto now flies far more Canadian flags than it did this time last year. But a growing number of consumers are beginning to question whether this economic retaliation, largely driven at the provincial level, is hurting Washington far less than it hurts Ontarians. The conversations aren’t just happening in bars – they’re happening in Queen’s Park, where Ontario’s government controls alcohol imports and where officials are beginning to quietly ask whether the political defiance has been worth the economic cost.
One craft brewer at a local beer festival summed it up bluntly: “I’m not sure I hate Trump more than I miss American bourbon.”
This isn’t just anecdotal grumbling. At several political summer parties I attended, similar sentiments surfaced among politicos, pointing to a deeper dilemma now confronting mid-sized economies like Canada and the UK: how to take a principled geopolitical stand without undermining domestic economic stability.
Canada’s emerging rethink mirrors debates in post-Brexit Britain, where small retailers lost access to European suppliers while exporters faced new red tape. Although some frictions have since eased, the lesson remains: winning a political argument can still hurt your market access.
If cooler heads prevail, Canada may borrow further from post-Brexit Britain’s experience, quietly liberalising US imports while establishing new trading relationships with old friends. The UK may even be first on their list. As I write this, PM Starmer has stopped in for a casual pint with PM Carney to discuss “international issues” before the G7 summit.
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Defence Industrial Strategy delayed
Amidst the positive headlines about the government increasing spending on defence, the minister for procurement last week confirmed that the Defence Industrial Strategy, meant to be released alongside the Spending Review, will be delayed for months. The Strategy is meant to inform defence firms how they should set themselves up for procurement wins, so this delay is doubly difficult. Firms now know neither when their deadlines will be nor how to prepare for them – odd timing considering the taps have just been opened.
Hackney Bath House: Another community gem to local authorities
The Hackney Bath House is the latest victim of a familiar London trend: local councillors making the city worse. After its owners took bold risks to transform a derelict site into a thriving hub of studios, cafes, saunas and cold plunges, the local council is now trying to shut it down. Despite overwhelming popularity, its success seems to have triggered official suspicion rather than support. For one of the world’s most dynamic cities, it’s remarkable how often local, homegrown ventures are crushed – not for genuine safety or public interest, but through sheer administrative idleness and malice.
Gen Z is becoming a replaceable generation
A friend in his first entry-level job took a two-week holiday – only to return and find much of his role replaced by AI. Granted, he works at a startup, where two weeks equates to a corporate quarter – but the trend is real. I’m onboarding two interns whose job descriptions, written just three months ago, have already had to be partially updated as the tools we use evolve on a weekly basis. The workplace is evolving fast, and the runway afforded to junior roles is vanishing faster than most job vacancies.
Macintosh Ales: A pub with vibes and entrepreneurial vision
One of my favourite entrepreneurs is the owner of Macintosh Ales. A room-sized pub on a back street in Stoke Newington, it serves only two types of beer. Although simplicity is everything, he’s also adopted a canny approach of getting his products into up-and-coming, Instagrammable restaurants where many patrons have also now become home delivery customers. Focusing investment into brand awareness among targeted demographics rather than expanding their physical presence and facing the hellscape of planning permissions and business rates seems a shrewd move.
Business growth tactics aside, the pub itself is a vibe, especially on summer nights where it shares a courtyard with artists’ studios, offers handmade benches to perch and has recently built out a semi-open air darts room. Highly recommend.
Michael Martins is the founder of Overton Advisory and a former political and economic specialist at US Embassy London
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