Closing Bell: ASX bets on July rate cut as employment data lands

With employment data coming in within expectation, markets are betting the RBA will cut interest rates at the next meeting in July. Pic: Getty Images

Markets pricing a 78pc chance of rate cut following labour data
Unemployment levels remained steady
ASX dips on broad weakness in tech, resources and healthcare stocks

The ASX ended up in negative territory this afternoon, but not by much (-0.09%). It wasn’t the worst performance, considering how many headwinds global markets are dealing with at present.

There’s the lingering threat of more tariffs from the US alongside the more pointed tension between China and America, the four-year saga of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and now the Israel-Iran conflict has turned up the heat even more.

In that context, losing just 0.48% over the last five trading days doesn’t sound too bad.

Financials, and particularly the seven big banking stocks on our ASX200 Banks index, were the bright spot in today’s subdued market.

ASX Sectors Source: Market Index

They couldn’t outweigh falls in info tech, materials, utilities and healthcare, but Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) added 1.48%, NAB (ASX:NAB) 1% and Westpac (ASX:WBC) 1.7%.

ASX Indices Source: Market Index

The All Ords Gold index was an anchor for the ASX, shedding 1.79% and dragging the 200 Resources and Small Ords down with it.

Bets on for July rate cut as employment remains steady

The ABS released its Labour Force Australia survey today, revealing unemployment levels have largely remained steady in May.

Looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers, both the participation and underemployment rate fell slightly, down just 0.1 point, but the overall number of unemployed people fell by about 2,600 individuals, or 0.4%.

Analysts say that’s about as expected, as the past 12 months of strong job uptake levels out to more average numbers.

“Looking ahead, the labour market’s strong run over the past 12 months will slowly fade. Global uncertainty is clouding business decisions and prompting many firms to temper hiring plans,” Oxford Economics Australia economist Kar Chong Low told the ABC.

Bloomberg’s numbers say traders reckon this is a green light for another interest rate cut in the RBA’s July meeting, with the market pricing a 78% chance.

Going by historical correlation, if the market sentiment stays that high right up until the meeting day, a cut is as close to certain as anything can be in this economy.

ASX SMALL CAP LEADERS

Today’s best performing small cap stocks:

Security Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap ATX Amplia Therapeutics 0.23 184% 60634193 $31,424,166 PRX Prodigy Gold NL 0.002 100% 3299814 $3,175,056 SFG Seafarms Group Ltd 0.002 100% 191757 $4,836,599 RPG Raptis Group Limited 0.16 67% 529504 $16,832,873 NHE Nobleheliumlimited 0.019 58% 5390085 $7,194,300 CCO The Calmer Co Int 0.003 50% 3661014 $6,022,707 FTC Fintech Chain Ltd 0.003 50% 167980 $1,301,539 ALM Alma Metals Ltd 0.004 33% 491861 $4,759,036 CTN Catalina Resources 0.004 33% 285724 $7,278,057 SRN Surefire Rescs NL 0.002 33% 5592144 $3,729,668 AHN Athena Resources 0.0065 30% 10001178 $11,329,785 HPC Thehydration 0.013 30% 2783892 $3,833,009 SCP Scalare Partners 0.13 30% 29521 $4,183,502 CP8 Canphosphateltd 0.04 29% 234815 $9,509,576 ALR Altairminerals 0.0025 25% 3717714 $8,593,488 AU1 The Agency Group Aus 0.02 25% 1341209 $7,033,225 OEL Otto Energy Limited 0.005 25% 1332565 $19,180,039 OKJ Oakajee Corp Ltd 0.02 25% 60000 $1,463,136 OMG OMG Group Limited 0.005 25% 1318028 $2,913,180 OVT Ovanti Limited 0.0025 25% 156524 $6,011,030 REZ Resourc & En Grp Ltd 0.02 25% 1124092 $10,746,226 ROG Red Sky Energy. 0.005 25% 2050000 $21,688,909 ELS Elsight Ltd 1.335 22% 1220702 $198,097,920 IFG Infocusgroup Hldltd 0.011 22% 12471483 $2,483,656 MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 0.011 22% 1914418 $5,024,723

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Making news…

Amplia Therapeutics (ASX:ATX) has achieved a second complete response in its 55-patient Accent trial evaluating FAK inhibitor narmafotinib in combination with chemotherapy in advanced pancreatic cancer.

It’s big news, as complete responses are very rare in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. A complete response (CR) means a disappearance of all tumour lesions has been maintained for more than two months.

A seminal study demonstrating the effect of chemotherapies gemcitabine and Abraxane in advanced pancreatic cancer reported only one complete response out of 431 patients.

Peak Minerals (ASX:PUA) reckons it’s sitting on a monazite-heavy mineral assemblage at Minta Est, part of the Minta rutile project in Cameroon.

The company’s sampling has revealed monazite content levels of up to 73%, alongside 35% rutile and 28% zircon. Monazite is valued at about 3-fold rutile and zircon, offering a potentially lucrative opportunity. PUA also averaged 2.4% heavy mineral content over 47 drill holes covering 121 square kilometres, with every hole returning mineralisation.

Surefire Resources (ASX:SRN) has kicked off 5,000m of drilling at its Yidby gold project in WA, looking to expand the project’s gold footprint.

The drill bit will also be testing new targets at the Fender and Marshall prospects and an extensive gold geochemical anomaly at the Money target, which will feel the drill’s bite for the first time.

Hydralite, better known as The Hydration Pharmaceuticals Company (ASX:HPC) on the ASX raked in US$308k in unaudited sales for the month of May, up 34% on April and 18% on May last year.

It’s a milestone for the company as the highest monthly total for the 2025 FY, underpinned by gross margins of 66.5%.

Resources & Energy Group (ASX:REZ) is poised to receive a cash injection of $1 million and 33 million QMines (ASX:QML) shares after getting the green light for the sale of the Mount Mackenzie gold project from due diligence teams.

The shares will be voluntarily be held in escrow for 12 months, offering REZ upside to whatever QML finds at Mount Mackenzie through its new share holding in the company.

ASX SMALL CAP LAGGARDS

Today’s worst performing small cap stocks:

Security Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap AFA ASF Group Limited 0.004 -33% 91846 $4,754,385 AXP AXP Energy Ltd 0.001 -33% 161237 $10,027,021 LNR Lanthanein Resources 0.001 -33% 5463026 $4,215,272 TKL Traka Resources 0.001 -33% 1320000 $3,188,685 AMI Aurelia Metals Ltd 0.2175 -29% 64448869 $516,234,655 BLU Blue Energy Limited 0.005 -29% 4258787 $12,956,815 VN8 Vonex Limited. 0.018 -28% 591400 $18,815,088 EEL Enrg Elements Ltd 0.0015 -25% 40307965 $6,507,557 BAS Bass Oil Ltd 0.023 -23% 4933335 $8,714,251 PGY Pilot Energy Ltd 0.006 -20% 10175643 $16,189,950 FAU First Au Ltd 0.004 -20% 2592000 $10,359,966 LU7 Lithium Universe Ltd 0.008 -20% 10180704 $7,859,796 MMR Mec Resources 0.004 -20% 271460 $9,248,829 RLG Roolife Group Ltd 0.004 -20% 142376 $7,963,906 NUC Nuchev Limited 0.185 -18% 68794 $32,926,343 PNT Panthermetalsltd 0.014 -18% 3023033 $5,115,377 AJL AJ Lucas Group 0.005 -17% 3000000 $8,254,378 DGR DGR Global Ltd 0.005 -17% 598401 $6,262,176 GLL Galilee Energy Ltd 0.005 -17% 2818092 $4,243,157 OLI Oliver’S Real Food 0.005 -17% 279999 $3,244,392 PVT Pivotal Metals Ltd 0.01 -17% 13339185 $10,886,711 LMG Latrobe Magnesium 0.008 -16% 4544607 $24,952,605 MEK Meeka Metals Limited 0.1475 -16% 49351910 $440,248,405 AVD Avada Group Limited 0.11 -15% 746 $11,041,553 CR3 Core Energy Minerals 0.011 -15% 1347637 $5,133,013

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Closing Bell: ASX bets on July rate cut as employment data lands

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