1h agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 12:24amMarket snapshot

  • ASX 200: +0.2% to 8,569 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.1% to 64.92 US cents
  • S&P 500: +1.1% to 6,092 points
  • Nasdaq: +1.4% to 19,913 points
  • FTSE: Flat at 8,759 points
  • EuroStoxx: +1.1% to 541 points
  • Spot gold: +0.1% to $US3,327/ounce
  • Brent crude: +1.1% to $US67.90/barrel
  • Iron ore: -0.1% to $US94.35/tonne
  • Bitcoin: -0.1% to $US106,210

Prices current around 10:25am AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

5m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 2:08am

Inflation looks stable at its lowest level in three-and-a-half years

While there’s a lot of caution about the incomplete monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator published by the ABS, there is one number that strongly suggests the inflation dragon has been well and truly slayed.

The annual trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation, was down to 2.4 per cent in May, from 2.8 per cent in April, which the ABS said was its lowest rate since November 2021.

That’s also now below the middle of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target.

My colleague Steph Chalmers has all the details in her article about the latest Bureau of Statistics release.

14m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:59am

Increasing pressure on RBA to cut rates in July

Surely with those CPI numbers the RBA will be hammered if they don’t drop rates in July .

– Phillip

Hi Phillip.

I suspect you’re right.

Both market economists and the RBA are cautious about the monthly CPI indicator, which is still quite new.

However, even though the RBA would probably prefer to wait for the full quarterly CPI numbers, these inflation figures are so low as to start being concerning that the bank might undershoot its inflation target.

That is, it risks holding interest rates too high for too long, so that the economy is performing worse than it needs to be.

That then risks the central bank having kept more Australians out of work than necessary to achieve its inflation target — something it has been slammed for by many prominent economists for doing in the pre-pandemic period.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two other high-profile economists shift their rate cut forecasts forward from August to July, joining NAB’s Sally Auld who has kept that as her base case.

19m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:54am

Fuel price cycles

Why is my local diesel already $2.08 if it’s dropped.

– Jess TweedHeads

Hi Jess.

Always a good question.

For one thing, the changes in oil price should take several weeks to affect the wholesale, and then retail, fuel prices in Australia.

That’s because the oil being purchased by the refineries takes time to get there, time to be refined, and then more time to be shipped to Australia.

So, in theory, we shouldn’t really even be seeing the rise in prices from the beginning of the “12-Day War” yet, let alone the falls back to pre-war levels we’ve seen over the past two days.

That said, when people are reading headlines about surging oil prices, it does seem like an opportune time for fuel retailers to jack up their prices.

That’s exactly what Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday warned them against doing.

He’s asked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to keep an eagle eye on retail petrol and diesel prices.

Will it make much difference??? Your guess is probably as good as mine.

If you want a bit more background on where our fuel comes from and the major role the Middle East plays in our supply, read this explainer by my colleague Hanan Dervisevic.

29m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:44am

When was the last time you checked your superannuation?

If you’re like me, and probably most people who are still a fair way off retirement age, then the answer is not lately.

But, as Amy Sheehan reports for ABC Lifestyle, financial experts say it pays to be a bit more observant.

34m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:39am

Financial markets price 88 per cent chance of July rate cut

After surprisingly weak inflation numbers, especially the trimmed mean, which is now below the middle of the RBA’s target band, traders have upped their bets on a July interest rate cut.

Market pricing implies about an 88% chance of the Reserve Bank cutting rates next month.

However, only one of the four major banks (NAB) has a rate cut in July as their baseline forecast.

The others, like most market economists, are tipping the next rate cut to happen in August.

39m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:34amInflation tumbles in monthly reading

Inflation eased further last month, with consumer prices rising 2.1 per cent over the year to May, down from 2.4 per cent the previous month.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the monthly Consumer Price Index was at its lowest level since October 2024.

The annual trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation, was down to 2.4 per cent in May, from 2.8 per cent in April, which the ABS said was its lowest rate since November 2021.

54m agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 1:19am

‘Washington’s confidence men’ vindicated by Israel-Iran ceasefire

An interesting note from RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy, Helima Croft:

“The fact that President Trump was able to execute major strikes on three key nuclear facilities and contain Iran to a symbolic retaliation seemingly vindicates Washington’s confidence men, who insisted that Tehran was too weak to mount a significant challenge to American interests in the region,” she argues.

“That said, we think it is important that President Trump essentially built the Iranians a Sun Tzu ‘golden bridge’ by foregoing a regime change agenda and subsequently signaling an end to maximum pressure sanctions on oil exports to China.

“We will now be watching whether the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] seeks to supplant the clerics in the face of this public display of weakness and pushes for a clandestine rebuild of the nuclear program.

“With conflicting damage assessments and some scientists suggesting that Iran still has significant stockpiles of highly enriched uranium that could be weaponized in under a year, the nuclear negotiations may still prove challenging and lead to further Israeli and/or US action in the event that Iran does not agree to forego future enrichment.”

So it sounds like Croft’s expectation is for relative calm in the short-term, but she doesn’t see a long-term fix to the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

1h agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 12:53am

Antoinette Lattouf awarded $70,000 as ABC found to have breached Fair Work Act

The federal court has awarded Antoinette Lattouf $70,000 compensation for the early termination of her short-term employment with the ABC.

The case was brought on after the journalist was taken off air three days into a five-day casual stint as an ABC Radio Sydney presenter in December 2023.

You can read more about Justice Rangiah’s decision in this article from our NSW news team.

1h agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 12:46am

The Aldi ColesWorth price gap appears to be closing. Why?

That was the question put to Choice by my colleague Emilia Terzon, who is covering finance for ABC News Channel today.

Last year, the gap appeared to be as much as 25%, now it’s down in the mid-single digits.

So why?

“While CHOICE’s methodology hasn’t changed, our base basket of items in Year 2 is different to our base basket of items in Year 1,” explains a Choice spokesperson.

“Our new emphasis on fresh foods — something we’ve been asked to focus on by our audience — is a big reason why we’ve seen the percentage differences between our basket totals change, as fresh and seasonal items tend to be more competitively priced.”

So there you have it, it’s not necessarily that price gaps have closed across the board, but when you’re only studying 14 different food and grocery items, changing which ones you look at can make a massive difference to the results.

Given that the ABS now collects data directly from most of the major retailers, I wonder why the federal government didn’t fund it to crunch the numbers on overall supermarket pricing across the broad range of goods captured in the Consumer Price Index (the monthly read of which is out in about 45 minutes)?

1h agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 12:20amASX edges higher as commodity producers weigh on the market

There’s only small gains on the ASX in early trade, as local investors declined to follow Wall Street’s gains well above 1% overnight.

While “risk-on” sectors like consumer cyclicals and financials gained, the mining and energy sectors were both in the red as commodity prices generally eased.

The Brent crude oil price in particular has plunged from more than $US80 a barrel at the start of the week to $US67.86 around 10:15am AEST.

That has seen the energy sector lose around half a per cent overall, with Woodside down more than 1%.

Gold miners have taken a bit of a hit too, as the easing in Middle East tensions has seen many investors reduce their safe-haven asset allocations.

Overall, in the first 20 minutes of trade, the ASX 200 index was up just 0.1% to 8,566 points.

The Australian dollar has been a beneficiary of the risk-on sentiment, trading at 64.93 US cents.

2h agoWed 25 Jun 2025 at 12:09am

DroneShield announces major contract as conflicts increase demand

The rising level of conflict in the Middle East and ongoing Russian war on Ukraine have generated at least one Australian beneficiary.

ASX-listed and Sydney-based DroneShield is a specialist in drone detection and counter-measures.

It has today announced the biggest single order in its history, which is expected to generate more revenue than it made all of last year.

“A package of three standalone follow-on contracts for $61.6 million from its privately owned in-country European reseller that is contractually required to distribute the products to a European military customer,” the company told investors about the order in an ASX release.

“The contracts are for handheld detection and counterdrone systems and associated accessories. DroneShield expects to deliver all equipment throughout Q3 2025, with cash payment expected in Q3 and Q4 2025.”

It says the order is with an unnamed counterparty/customer who it would not expect to have a material impact on the value of the company.

The company also released an investor presentation today on the ASX, talking up its sales pipeline and ongoing research and development activities.

“In succession to the $32.3 million repeat order announced on 14 April 2025 for another customer, DroneShield products are now being purchased in material quantities,” said CEO Oleg Vornik in a statement.

“The scale and frequency or orders has been increasing as leading military customers are moving from testing hardware to broader rollouts.”

2h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 11:35pmASIC considering its regulatory response to HESTA prolonged outage

Despite normal services resuming three weeks ago, dozens of HESTA superannuation members have contacted ABC News, distressed and frustrated they are still unable to access their own super funds.

Earlier in the week, the ABC reported that despite the outage ending at the start of June, members have reported that their applications to withdraw funds have still not been processed, while wait times on the phone can be up to three hours.

A spokesperson for corporate watchdog the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said: “ASIC is aware of the situation and is considering its regulatory response.”

A spokesperson for HESTA has said: “We apologise to members who haven’t had the experience they should expect from HESTA and are working hard to resolve these issues quickly.”

2h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 11:21pm

With a 3:30am phone call and 11pc share price rise, Virgin returns to ASX

Virgin shares closed more 11 per cent higher yesterday, on its first day of trade on the ASX since its 2020 collapse and buy-out by Bain Capital.

But it wasn’t a smooth start to the day for boss Dave Emerson, who spoke to chief business correspondent Ian Verrender at the listing in Sydney.

“I got a phone call this morning at 3.30, ‘ah, we’re diverting some planes’, but two of ours, we had two,” he recounted.

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Read more analysis from Ian on how the day played out for the airline:

3h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 10:59pm

A couple of your comments on supermarkets

The Choice supermarket price survey is a genuine apples with oranges comparison, given Aldi doesn’t offer the same brands and range as ColesWorth, Aldi doesn’t operate in all states and territories and remote areas and doesn’t offer online shopping or delivery. Bit of a joke comparison really

– Alex

A topic that clearly arouses great interest, even as the worst of the cost-of-living crisis is now in the mirror.

Thank God that Coles and Woolies gouge us on price…..imagine how much better off we would be if we could pay 20% more at independent supermarkets !!

– Cheeky

3h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 10:50pm

Are we ready for Artificial Super Intelligence?

A thought-provoking LinkedIn post from a personality well-known to ABC audiences, Adam Spencer.

“AI intelligence is now back in the news with Meta’s recent announcement that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is personally recruiting a 50-person ‘superintelligence’ team, offering compensation packages up to eight figures.

“The star recruit? Scale AI’s 28-year-old founder Alexandr Wang, with Meta investing $14.3 billion for nearly half of his company.

“Will we reach Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — a platform smarter than most humans at most things? Or Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) — a platform smarter than every human at everything?

“Within the yes camp, ambitious but possible timetables suggest AGI by 2030 and ASI by 2040, a mere 15 years from now!”

Not much time really to think about whether creating something smarter than any of us is really a great idea or not.

You can read his full post on LinkedIn.

3h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 10:42pm

Shares jump on ‘FOMO’ as energy prices plunge

As it appears that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will hold, lest either risk the ire of US President Donald Trump, Pepperstone analyst Chris Weston says traders have been racing headlong back into risk.

“It’s been another solid day for risk appreciation in financial markets, driven largely by a further liquidation of long crude positions as the geopolitical risk premium continues to be priced out, amid a broad performance chase in mega-cap tech and financials,” he notes.

“Brent crude traded 7% lower to $US66.82 — taking the drawdown from Monday’s futures open to -17.9% — before better buyers stepped in, with crude closing at $US67.83. European natural gas prices collapsed by 12%, offering tailwinds to both the EUR and European equity markets.

“Volatility has also eased, with the VIX index falling 2.35 vols to 17.48%, while gold has also traded heavy, with spot into a session low of $US3,295 as traders continued to reduce any residual geopolitical hedges.”

The Nasdaq had particularly strong gains, as traders rushed back to some big tech names.

“Meta made a strong move and looks good for further upside, with Microsoft and Amazon adding index points, while Nvidia closed +2.6%, breaking to new cycle highs, and setting its sights on the all-time highs of $153.13. AMD jumped 6.8% and is in beast mode, making it a strong momentum alternative for those reluctant to chase Nvidia at current levels.

“A market willing to buy the dip seems to have morphed into a FOMO affair and a reluctance chase for performance.“

Ah yes, those Bob Marley vibes again.

Loading4h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 10:12pmPowell and other US Fed officials pour cold water on July rate cut hopes

Lots of US Federal Reserve officials spoke overnight, most notably the central bank’s chair Jerome Powell, who remains under fire from President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates further already.

This commentary from Ray Attrill who heads FX research for NAB:

“Powell, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, said that the Fed was in no rush to take any policy action given that the labour market remains solid, inflation is still elevated and price pressures appear poised to intensify as a result of Mr Trump’s tariffs.

“‘For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,’ Powell said, echoing the message out of last week’s FOMC meeting. ‘It’s just a question about being prudent and careful … we don’t see weakness in the labour market. If we did, that would change things.’ He did though go on to add under questioning that ‘If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner rather than later.’ However, he stressed that ‘I don’t think we need to be in any rush, because the economy is still strong.’

“Several other FOMC officials were also speaking Tuesday and all appeared to side with Powell rather than Governors Waller or Bowman, who either side of the weekend were prosecuting the case for a July rate cut. NY Fed President and heavy hitter John Williams said he believes it ‘entirely appropriate’ to hold interest rates steady. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed could be on hold for quite some time. Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated his backing for just one quarter-point cut this year. And Governor Barr said monetary policy is well positioned, allowing the Fed to wait, and that second round effects could make the inflationary impact of tariffs persistent.”

So what did markets make of all of that?

They think there’s less than a one-in-five chance of US rates falling next month, although they have almost completely priced in a rate cut by September.

Looking way ahead, markets have priced in more than 1.2 percentage points of rate cuts by October next year.

That would take the benchmark US rate from 4.25-4.5% down to around 3-3.25%.

4h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 9:57pmChoice releases latest supermarket price findings based on random basket of goods

Consumer group Choice has released its latest quarterly price comparison of the major supermarkets.

The federal government funded study, now into its second year, compares a standardised basket of goods across Woolworths, Coles, Aldi and IGA.

As in previous studies, Aldi came in as the cheapest, whether including or excluding specials, at $54.44/$55.35.

Woolworths came next when excluding specials at $58.86 (with specials) and $58.92 (without specials).

Coles had bigger specials discounts on the selected items — the basket cost $59.22 without discounts and $57.67 once discounted.

IGA lagged well behind at $69.74 without discounts and $67.54 with specials.

The supplier of independent supermarkets, Metcash, earlier this week posted a strong rise in earnings and saw its share price jump.

So, what was Choice buying?

Base basket:

  • Full cream milk
  • Sanitarium Weetbix
  • Royal Gala apples
  • Carrots
  • Cavendish bananas
  • Strawberries
  • Chicken breast fillets, bulk pack

Spotlight items for this quarter were:

  • Vegetable stock
  • Sour cream
  • Drinking chocolate
  • Butternut pumpkin
  • Quick oat sachets
  • Garlic
  • Brown onions

Not sure about you, but this seems like a fairly small and quite random list to me. The “base basket” is also potentially easy for supermarkets to game if they want to perform well in the Choice study.

4h agoTue 24 Jun 2025 at 9:34pm

Trump drops the F-bomb to stop the war

As the fragile ceasefire announced by the US President threatened to unravel yesterday, Donald Trump used the F-word to put Iran, but particularly ally Israel, back in their boxes.

“You know what, we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing,” he told reporters at the White House.

“Do you understand that?”

As ABC Middle East correspondent Matt Doran explains, Trump also left Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in no uncertainty of his displeasure about Israel using the window before the ceasefire started to launch further attacks on Iran.