Estimates within the DWP for the number of people who will get a job are said to be “very low”.
“They are notoriously difficult people to get into work because in many cases they’ve been out of the job market for a while and employers are not willing to take a chance on them,” said a senior official.
Rural parts of Cumbria starkly highlight the challenges the government faces. In the Cumberland Council jurisdiction, which covers the north and west parts of the county, 51% of people on universal credit have no requirement to look for work, mainly due to health reasons.
While physical health conditions, such as arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions are prevalent, in recent years large increases in mental health conditions, such as bipolar disorder, anxiety and depression, have driven the increase.
Colin Cox, director of public health at Cumberland Council, pointed out that many of these conditions are very real – the suicide rate is much higher than the average for England, for instance.
But he also argued some “common experiences” had been over-medicalised.
“The solutions you bring forward for that are very different [than just] prescribing an anti-depressant,” he added.
A government statement said its “once-in-a-generation package of employment support” would “guarantee that disabled people and those with health conditions on out-of-work benefits will be able to access tailored work, health, and skills support, through new and existing programmes”.