The primary sector was a little ray of sunshine in an otherwise still gloomy labour market during May, with signs that overall unemployment may not yet have peaked.

The latest figures from Statistics NZ’s Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) show that in May, on a seasonally adjusted basis, there was an increase of 1689 jobs (a 0.1% rise) taking the number of filled jobs to 2.35 million.

That might look okay, but the reality is that this data series almost invariably sees figures revised down in subsequent months.

Indeed, the figures for April have now been revised down from an originally announced 0.1% drop in numbers to a 0.3% drop, while the March figures, originally announced as a 0.2% rise were a month later revised down to just a 0.1% rise and have now been revised down again to flat.

It all means that if the May slight rise is revised away in subsequent months, we’ll have seen no months this year in which the job numbers overall have risen.

And that’s after a 2024 calendar year that at one point saw seven consecutive months of falls.

The MEI figures are not directly comparable with the official unemployment figures as they are sourced quite differently – coming from Inland Revenue data – but they have tended to be quite a good indicator of future trends. 

The official unemployment figures for the March quarter as measured by Stats NZ’s Household Labour Force Survey showed an unchanged 5.1%. The unemployment rate was just 4.0% at the start of last year.

The June quarter figures are due out on August 6. The RBNZ’s most recent forecast in the May Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) is for a 5.2% figure. The latest MEI figures look supportive of such a pick.

Stats NZ said changes in the seasonally adjusted filled jobs for the May 2025 month (compared with the April 2025 month) were:

  • all industries – up 0.1% (1,689 jobs) to 2.35 million filled jobs
  • primary industries – up 0.4% (439 jobs)
  • goods-producing industries – down 0.2% (787 jobs)
  • service industries – up 0.1% (1,990 jobs).

The relative strength in employment numbers in the primary industries sector again highlights the current starring role the primary industries are having in an economy that has generally speaking been struggling to gain traction, although GDP did rise 0.8% in the March quarter. 

More recent high frequency data has, however, suggested there may have been something of a pause in the economy’s momentum in the June quarter about to end.

But as the most recent monthly goods trade figures show, our primary exports – particularly in dairy, meat, and fruit – are still performing strongly.

In terms of the actual, unadjusted, MEI figures compared with May a year ago, Stats NZ said filled jobs were 2.35 million, down 34,237 jobs (1.4%). 

Again, younger people have borne the brunt of the reduction in jobs, with 12,480 few jobs (down 9.9%) among those aged 15-19.

By industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with May 2024 were in:

  • construction – down 6.2% (12,723 jobs)
  • administrative and support services – down 5.6% (6,126 jobs)
  • professional, scientific, and technical services – down 3.1% (5,975 jobs)
  • manufacturing – down 2.1% (4,896 jobs)
  • accommodation and food services – down 2.2% (3,525 jobs).

By region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with May 2024 were in:

  • Auckland – down 1.9% (15,274 jobs)
  • Wellington – down 2.2% (5,822 jobs)
  • Waikato – down 1.0% (2,305 jobs)
  • Bay of Plenty – down 1.3% (1,955 jobs)
  • Manawatū-Whanganui – down 1.7% (1,920 jobs).