A fresh industry study has forecast the global cocoa bean market to expand towards a total of $20.8 billion by 2032, growing annually at 4.9% and up from a figure of $13.5 billion two years ago, despite ongoing major environmental and infrastructure challenges impacting the sector, writes Neill Barston.

The research from the Dataintelo group cited the improved financial projection based on global growth within chocolate markets, which have seen an expansion of premium markets, though sales have been impacted in the past year amid ongoing economic uncertainty in many regions.

As previously reported by our title, the market has experienced considerable turbulence in 2025, with prices starting the year at around $12,000 a tonne on commodity markets, before falling back slightly – but deficits in supply have seen the elevated levels (up from around $3,000 just two years ago), maintained.

In terms of consumer patterns, the authors o the study noted a shift in consumer buying preferences, with many people increasingly aware of sustainability factors and ethical sourcing playing a major role in their shopping habits.

As the research found, the cocoa bean market is a vital component of the global confectionery and food processing industries, with increasing demand from emerging economies and the rise of artisanal and premium chocolate brands.

The study found several core factors including a rise in demand for dark chocolate, becoming more popular due to perceived health benefits. In addition, cocoa is being used in bakery, dairy, and beverage industries, further boosting the demand.

Linked to this, the health and wellness angle has also seen greater interest in cocoa markets rise, with the ingredient being rich in flavonoids and antioxidants, which support cardiovascular health and cognitive function. These health attributes are being increasingly promoted by chocolate manufacturers.

Notably, there has also been an expansion of international markets, including  China, India, and Brazil have significantly contributed to increased chocolate consumption, thereby propelling the cocoa beans market. Western brands are expanding aggressively in these regions, further accelerating demand.

As Confectionery Production has previously reported, there has also been further market disruption with the emergence of lab-grown cocoa operations that are now emerging onto the market, which could potentially negatively damage traditional supply chains.

Key market tests
As the study noted, there are still major hurdles within the sector, including cocoa being negatively impacted by climate changes of global warming – which has seen adverse crop conditions in the past three seasons.  Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and plant diseases like Black Pod and Witches’ Broom pose significant threats to cocoa yields, thereby disrupting supply and inflating prices.

Equally as significant, concerns over child labour remain, with the topic being a core issue in the world’s largest producing nations of Ghana and Ivory Coast, where most recent figures have shown that 1.5 million children are still exposed to the worst forms of child labour.

In response, demand for Fairtrade and sustainably sourced products has increased in recent years, which has also contributed to overall market growth.

According to the study, the future of the cocoa beans market lies in innovation—ranging from climate-resilient cocoa varieties to blockchain-based traceability solutions ensuring ethical sourcing.

Manufacturers are also exploring cocoa’s use in non-conventional sectors like nutraceuticals and cosmetics. Additionally, plant-based and vegan chocolates are expected to gain traction, further expanding the use of cocoa in alternative product formats.

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