2h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 12:38amMarket snapshot
- ASX 200: -0.1% to 8,597 points (live values below)
- Australian dollar: -0.2% to 65.40 US cents
- Nikkei 225: -0.1% to 39,762 points
- Wall Street (Friday): Closed
- Europe (Friday): DAX -0.6%, FTSE flat, Eurostoxx -0.8%
- Spot gold: -0.4% at $US3,322/ounce
- Brent crude: -1.3% to US$67.39/barrel
- Iron ore: +0.5% to $US96.35/tonne
- Bitcoin: +0.2% to $US1089,007
Prices current around 10:35am AEST
Live updates from major ASX indices:
20m agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 2:29am
Blue chips struggling
A quick look at the big end of town – the ASX top 20 – which is currently underperforming the broader ASX 200 ( -0.2% vs -0.1%).
While CSL, the big miners and big supermarkets are in demand, the banks and Wesfarmers are dragging down the overall index.
ASX 20 (LSEG, ASX)
24m agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 2:25am
Australian Conference of Economists
Hi all, the Economics Society of Australia has picked a busy week to hold its annual conference.
ACE 2025 — the Australian Conference of Economists — is taking place in Sydney this week, and I am about to head along to catch as many sessions as I can between the deluge of economic and financial news.
(Reserve Bank meeting, US reciprocal tariffs and trade discussions, etc).
I will try and keep you up to date with any interesting papers or discussions, at least those that are on the record.
Peter Martin, Jenny Gordon and myself will also be recording an episode of The Economy, Stupid, on-site at the conference.
I am feeling a little bit intimidated about the Q&A session where the people in the room generally know more about economics than I do (or at least the specialist area of economics they inhabit).
I must note that I am attending the conference as a guest of the Economics Society of Australia (although I live in Sydney, so it has not paid for any flights, accommodation, etc — I am merely allowed to turn up for free and eat at the conference lunch buffet!).
Also worth noting that the Economics Society of Australia is turning 100 this year.
Loading29m agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 2:20amLifestyle Communities in trading halt
Shares in Lifestyle Communities have entered a trading halt, pending a Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) decision.
The retirement village developer had been taken to the tribunal by Melbourne residents, claiming excessive fees and unethical conduct, and a decision is being handed down today.
Lifestyle Communities specialises in land lease communities in Victoria, where residents buy the home, usually a manufactured or moveable dwelling, and rent the land, similar to a caravan park.
An ABC investigation uncovered steep exit fees, deceased people being charged rent and claims of misleading marketing.
Lifestyle Communities responded to the ABC stories, saying it “takes its compliance obligations extremely seriously” and that it was “confident in our model and will defend it accordingly, however we fully respect the rights of homeowners to pursue the VCAT pathway as we believe this is the appropriate forum for resolution”.
The company’s managing director James Kelly announced his retirement in October but would not answer questions about whether it was related to the ABC investigation.
Read last year’s story from Adele Ferguson and Chris Gillett as part of their ongoing coverage of the sector:
47m agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 2:02amJob ads rebound
After two consecutive months of falls, the number of jobs being advertised has rebounded.
The ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements series rose 1.8% in June — following two consecutive declines.
Job ads are now at their highest level in 12 months, but still down 0.4% over the past year.
Indeed economist Callam Pickering said despite a challenging economic environment, the Australian job market remains healthy.
“Australian Job Ads have been broadly stable over the past year, continuing to support employment growth and helping keep the unemployment rate low,” Mr Pickering said.
“This is still a job market that is broadly favourable to the jobseeker, with plenty of opportunities available for those looking for higher pay or more responsibility.”
“Nevertheless, the global economic outlook has deteriorated, owing to unpredictable trade policies from the United States, and it’s not yet clear the extent to which this will impact job creation in Australia.”
ANZ-Indeed job ads (ANZ-Indeed, Macrobond)
The survey, which provides insights into future labour demand, found job ad growth was concentrated in Queensland and New South Wales.
This offset falls in Victoria and South Australia.
Mr Pickering noted management and sales opportunities rebounded in June, after being two of the weaker performers over the past year.
“Software development continues to recover, increasing to its highest level since October 2023.
“Education remains a drag on job creation, falling once again in June, while opportunities for nurses also continue to ease.”
1h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 1:41am
July 9 still slated as the start date for reciprocal tariffs, except China
Morning Stephen. Not sure if you can confirm it but some American news networks are reporting Trump has pushed back 9/7 tariff cut off to 1/8?
– Phillip
– Michael Janda
Hi Phillip,
You ask a good question that’s worth clarification.
Senior US officials, right up to President Trump, have said in recent days that the higher rates of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” will apply from August 1 for countries that don’t strike a better deal in the meantime.
However, as things stand, the deadline for the reciprocal tariffs to be re-imposed remains 2:01pm AEST on Wednesday July 9.
That’s because the executive order suspending the imposition of the reciprocal tariffs says that suspension ends at 12:01am US east coast daylight time on July 9.
Thus far, despite statements from administration officials and the president, no new executive order about tariffs to alter that has been made.
Of course, the suspension of higher tariff rates on China was made through a separate executive order, and that suspension expires on August 12, unless there is a subsequent executive order to extend or alter the tariffs.
If Donald Trump wants to give particular countries more time to finish negotiations, he will need to sign new executive orders before that time.
You can keep up with what executive orders the president has signed on the White House website.
1h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 1:27am
Oil oversupply in the pipeline: CBA
A bit more on the falling oil price from CBA’s mining and energy commodities analyst Vivek Dhar.
OPEC+ decided over the weekend to increase headline supply by 548kb/d in August against expectations of a 411kb/d increase, which was the same pace set for May, June and July.
The global benchmark Brent crude has fallen almost 1% in response, while the US benchmark WTI crude is down 1.6%.
In a note this morning, Mr Dhar said oil markets are now likely to be pushed into oversupply later this year.
“OPEC+ cited “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories” for their surprise decision to hike supply faster than expected in August,” Mr Dhar said.
“It’s worth noting that April to August usually sees a pickup in global refinery activity — in line with the northern hemisphere summer holiday period.
“Refinery activity though usually simmers down by September, adding some tension to the anticipated OPEC+ decision early next month. Even without a super sized supply hike in September, markets have credible concerns that oil markets will be pushed into oversupply in Q4 2025.
“The most compelling reason that we see for OPEC+ to boost quotas like it has is an acceptance that a lower oil price will prevent further market share erosion.
“We see OPEC+ targeting Brent oil futures around $US60 65/bbl as a result.
“This would challenge the economics of US shale oil supply growth and prevent non OPEC+ supply growth from taking market share from OPEC+ in coming years.”
1h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 1:07amASX seesaws in first hour of trade
We’re around an hour into the local session and the ASX 200 is moving between a few points up and a few points down.
It’s been a bit of a seesaw start to the week, as traders await tomorrow’s Reserve Bank decision and updates on trade negotiations out of the US.
Here’s how the sectors are sitting:
ASX 200 sectors (LSEG Refinitiv)
It’s a bit of a mixed bag in terms of the best and worst performers, with gold stocks generally among the top, but Northern Star taking a tumble after an operational update. Production at Kalgoorlie came in below its guidance.
Best performers:
- Bellevue Gold +6%
- Origin Energy +4.6%
- Spartan Resources +2.5%
- Capricorn Metals +2.3%
- Ramelius Resources +2.1%
Worst performers:
- Northern Star Resources -5.2%
- IDP Education -4.8%
- Liontown Resources -4.6%
- HMC Capital -4.4%
- Clarity Pharma -4.1%
1h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 1:02amOil on the skids after OPEC+ lifts supply again
Global oil prices have slid in an immediate response to the OPEC+ cartel’s decision over the weekend to lift production quotas.
The move to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August was larger than expected and is forecast to push the global oil market into a supply glut.
The August increase represents a jump from monthly increases of 411,000 bpd OPEC+ had approved for May, June and July, and 138,000 bpd in April.
Brent crude futures fell 67 cents, or 1%, to $US67.63 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $US65.80, down $1.20, or 1.8% when trading resumed this morning.
2h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 12:41am
As many as four rate cuts by 2026: economist
Morning!
David Taylor just jumping into the blog with some potentially good news for mortgage borrowers.
AMP’s Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina says there’s potential of as many as four RBA interest rate cuts by 2026.
Here’s a yarn I worked up earlier.
2h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 12:27am
Star Entertainment shares lower in early trade
After the news Star has managed to extend the deadline and avoid the collapse of its Queen’s Wharf deal (and forking out millions to its joint venture partners) for now, its shares are lower in early trade.
Currently down 1.9 per cent to 12.75 cents per share.
2h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 12:17amASX teeters around flatline at the open
A quick update as the session gets underway, the ASX 200 is currently just 1 point lower, so we’re struggling for a clear direction in early trade.
2h agoMon 7 Jul 2025 at 12:02amStar extends deadline on Queen’s Wharf negotiations
Today was the deadline for Star to reach an agreement with its Queen’s Wharf joint venture partners over the purchase of the Brisbane development or have the deal collapse.
Now, the casino firm says it’s negotiated new terms with the Hong Kong investors, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises and Far East Consortium, which will allow negotiations to continue until a new termination date of July 31.
If a final deal isn’t reached (or “long form documents are not entered into”, as per the ASX statement jargon) by the end of this month, then Star must repay $10 million in proceeds it received from the investors, 30 days from today.
Star would also be liable for reimbursing $26.5 million in equity contributions its joint venture partners made to the Brisbane project since the end of march, due with 60 days from today.
Last Monday, Chow Tai Fook and Far East threatened to pull out of the deal to buy out Star’s stake in the Queen’s Wharf development, which would’ve posed a fresh financial threat to the casino operator, after it had secured a rescue deal from Bally’s.
Here’s where things stood before today’s extension:
3h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 11:46pm
Indigenous businesses reap billions in ‘social value’: Supply Nation
Reporting by the ABC’s Indigenous Affairs Team
A new report has sought to quantify the social value of Indigenous-owned businesses in Australia, putting it at $42.6 billion a year.
Supply Nation, which maintains the national directory of verified Indigenous businesses, has used Social Return on Revenue (SRR) modelling to measure the sector’s social impact.
It finds 16 per cent of Indigenous people are directly connected to Indigenous businesses, whether as owners (29,200 people), their households (over 61,300 people) or their employees (over 65,700 people).
For every dollar of revenue, it says Indigenous businesses create $3.66 of social and economic value for Indigenous communities.
Awabakal woman and Supply Nation CEO Kate Russell says those benefits include increased financial security, physical health and mental wellbeing, improved family relationships and connections to culture.
“Indigenous businesses are closing the gap,” she told the ABC.
“Yes, it contributes significantly to the Indigenous entrepreneur themselves, to their families and their Indigenous [employees], but it’s also a really significant contributor to the broader Australian economy.”
Earlier this year, the Albanese government lifted its procurement target so that 3 per cent of government contracts will go to Indigenous-owned businesses, rising to 4 per cent by 2030.
3h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 11:20pm
NZ shares open lower
The NZX 50 has opened 0.2% lower.
3h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 11:11pmSouth 32 sells Colombian nickel mine
The big, diversified miner South 32 has agreed to sell its Cerro Mataoso nickel mine in Colombia for about $US100 million ($156 million).
The agreement to sell the mine to a subsidiary of the Netherlands-based CoreX is to a degree based on price-linked considerations in the future.
However, South 32 will incur an impairment charge of $US130 million as a result of the transaction.
South32 says the sale follows a strategic review into structural changes in the nickel market.
“The transaction is consistent with our strategy and will further streamline our portfolio toward higher margin businesses in minerals and metals critical to the world’s energy transition,” South 32 CEO Graham Kerr said in a statement to the ASX.
4h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 10:48pm
Trade deals close, US Treasury secretary says
The Trump administration dispatched a number of key members of its economic team to the Sunday TV talk shows to talk trade — and it’s hard to say if it has cleared things up.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US is close to securing several trade deals ahead of the July 9 deadline when higher tariffs are due to kick in.
Mr Bessent told CNN’s State of the Union program that President Donald Trump would also send out letters to 100 smaller countries with whom the US doesn’t have much trade, notifying them that they would face higher tariff rates first set on April 2 and then suspended until July 9.
“President Trump’s going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don’t move things along, then on August 1 you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” Mr Bessent said.
“So, I think we’re going to see a lot of deals very quickly.”
However, he denied that August 1 was a new deadline for negotiations.
“We are saying this is when it’s happening. If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that’s your choice,” Mr Bessent said.
White House National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett was the next cab off the rank, fronting up on CBS’s Face the Nation program.
He seemed to indicate there was more flexibility than Mr Bessent suggested.
“There are deadlines, and there are things that are close, and so maybe things will push back past the deadline,” Mr Hassett said.
Finally, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, popped up on ABC News with some positive spin and talk of more wriggle room.
“I hear good things about the talks with Europe. I hear good things about the talks with India,” Mr Miran said.
“And so, I would expect that a number of countries that are in the process of making those concessions … might see their date rolled.”
Mr Bessent, however, appeared to be less conciliatory, noting there had been “a lot of foot-dragging” among countries in finalising trade deals.
He declined to name countries close to a trade agreement, “because I don’t want to let them off the hook”.
With Reuters
4h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 10:20pmTrump focussing on 12 key trade deals
US trade partners will be checking their mailboxes for missives from the White House about what is expected from them if they are to avoid punitive tariffs for exports into the US.
There appear to be 10-to-12 nations the Trump administration is particularly keen to strike a deal with before the 90-day tariff moratorium expires on July 9.
“I signed some letters, and they’ll go out on Monday — probably 12,” Mr Trump said.
The demands, Mr Trump added, were for “different amounts of money, different amounts of tariffs and somewhat different statements”.
For the time being, the administration is being coy about who’s getting a letter — but all is expected to be revealed later today.
Mr Trump had earlier said “they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs.”
Those tariffs, if imposed, will kick in on August 1.
“Our baseline expectation is that a 10% universal tariff rate will remain for all trading partners, and a higher level of tariffs is likely to continue in selected sectors,” the ANZ economics team said in a research note this morning.
“We expect that the deadline for reciprocal tariffs will be extended for major partners where trade negotiations are progressing, and the US Treasury Secretary went on to indicate as much on Sunday, talking of a three-week extension,” the ANZ team added.
As NAB’s Head of FX Research Ray Atwill has also been keeping tabs on talks over the weekend.
“Japan’s top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa reportedly had two 45-60 minute calls with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick last Thursday and Saturday described as an in depth exchange of views, while EU and US officials will reportedly keep negotiating through the weekend with the EU side reporting ‘progress towards an Agreement in Principal” which appear to centre on acceptance of a 10% baseline tariff rate without drawing EU retaliation but with carve outs or quotas in some sectors (autos, pharmaceuticals, alcohol, etc) potentially in return for EU commitments on more direct investment into the US,” Mr Atwill said.
“In the absence of any agreements or determination by the US that negotiations are continuing in good faith, the Japan tariff rate is due to revert to the 24% rate announced on April 2, and for EU imports to 20%, with sectoral tariff rates remaining in place at the higher rates of 25% on autos and 50% on steel and aluminium.”
4h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 10:06pm
This week — RBA decision, tariff deadline
Australia
Mon: Job ads (Jun)
Tue: RBA rates decision
Wed: RBA speeches Deputy and Assistant Governors
Thu: Spending indicator (Jun)
International
Tue: US — Small business confidence (Jun), Consumer credit (May)
Wed: NZ — RBNZ rates decision
CN — CPI, PPI (May)
US — FOMC minutes
Thu: US — Budget balance
Fri: UK — GDP
The RBA board hogs the stage locally this week with its two-day board meeting culminating with its interest rates decision on Tuesday at 2:30pm (AEST).
Inflation is now consistently in the RBA’s target band, and perhaps more importantly below the RBA’s forecasts, while economic growth and consumption is tepid, meaning a 25-bps rate cut is priced in as an almost certainty.
That would bring the official cash rate down to 3.6%
Neither a “no change” nor a 50bps cut figure much in the betting.
Offshore, there’s not much happening on the data front.
New Zealand’s central bank meets on Wednesday but is expected to take a breather after 225bps of cuts over the past year.
The Fed publishes the minutes of its last meeting (Wed) and is expected to point to rate cuts being pushed even further into the future.
The big item on the agenda though is the expiry of the deadline President Donald Trump set for countries to strike a trade deal with the US.
So far, there hasn’t been much in the way of signatures being scribbled by trade teams.
If that trend continues, the fallout may not be immediate and the can will be kicked further down the road to August 1 when the threatened punitive tariffs will be imposed, or then again, maybe not.
5h agoSun 6 Jul 2025 at 9:44pmASX set for a flat opening ahead of RBA decision tomorrow
The ASX is priced for a flat opening with little guidance coming from Wall Street which was closed for US Independence Day festivities.
European markets traded on Friday and were generally softer, while the UK’s FTSE closed flat.
With little in the rear vision to fret about, investors will be looking at the road ahead which is far from straight forward with the 90-day pause on the “‘liberation day” tariffs set to expire on Wednesday.
The US deadline to its trading partners (and the penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands) has yet to produce much in the way of meaningful action.
Will there be a flurry of deals signed before July 9? Maybe, maybe not.
And is it even a deadline, given the tariff hikes for any deal holdouts won’t kick in until August 1.
European markets didn’t seem overly confident of anything positive happening, with stocks across the region down around 0.8% on Friday.
Wall Street futures are somewhat glum too — the S&P 500 and Dow futures are down 0.6% for this evening’s session and the Nasdaq is down a tick more.
Commodities traded through the July 4 holiday with oil slipping 0.7% on expectations OPEC+ would announcing another output increase.
The cartel duly delivered a larger than expected supply increase of 548,000 barrels a day on Saturday, which is likely to weigh on oil prices when trading resumes this morning
Gold gained 0.3% largely thanks to a weaker US dollar and iron ore edged higher.