Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it

Manchester United kicked off their summer business quickly by securing their first signing, Matheus Cunha, on June 1st, the traditional opening of the transfer window. Their second signing, not so much.

United missed out on the signature of Ipswich striker Liam Delap when the Englishman chose to go to Chelsea and have shifted their attention to Brentford attacker Bryan Mbeumo. In late June had a bid in excess of £60m rejected for the French born Cameroon international.

Brentford – who have lost their coach to Tottenham and their captain to Arsenal – are holding out for a fee in excess of £62.5 million. They feel the price tag for Cunha – which was a release clause – as well as the money Chelsea have paid Brighton for Joao Pedro have set the market accordingly and that is what Mbeumo is worth. Mbeumo is entering the final year of his contract with Brentford but the Bees do have the option to extend it by another year.

If it sounds like United have been in this situation before it’s because they have. This is getting eerily similar to two situations United have been in in just the past six years! The first is when they tried to pry Harry Maguire away from Leicester City, the second when they signed Antony from Ajax. In both cases United eventually got their man, but not without paying a record fee.

There are lessons be learned from those situations, the primary one being that it’s probably time to walk away from this deal.

Mbeumo has told Brentford that if he leaves he will only be leaving for United. That hasn’t done much to weaken Brentford’s position since they are under no financial need to sell Mbeumo. Brentford have said they’d be open to selling Mbeumo, but only for the right price, which then manager Thomas Frank added “would be really expensive.”

To add to the matter, Brentford’s Director of Football has already come out and said he wouldn’t be massively surprised if Mbeumo stayed at the club next season.

In terms of expectation, I don’t actually know where that will end up. I think we made our point clear that, having had such a great season, if he earned a massive move and it was right for us financially we would be open for that. But if he ended up being here next season, I wouldn’t be massively surprised.

Brentford are making it clear that they aren’t selling Mbeumo for a penny less than their asking price. They’re prepared to sell him for less money next season if they need to in order to make the transition to a new manager easier in the short term. As of now, Mbeumo himself has not suggested that he’d refuse to rejoin Brentford at the start of the season strengthening their hand.

This is very similar to the position Leicester City took in the summer of 2019 with Harry Maguire. Maguire had recently signed a new contract giving Leicester all the power in the negotiations. The Foxes made it clear that the only way they’d agree to a deal was if United paid a then record £80 million fee.

Maguire was United’s number one transfer target that summer. He was the guy United were going to build their team around. The deal dragged along all summer until eventually Maguire skipped training with Leicester to force the move through in the final week before the season – but United still had to part way with the full £80m to get the deal done.

By almost all accounts Maguire’s signing has been a success for United. He made an instant impact in United’s back line – helping United go from a team that conceded 54 goals before his arrival to the second best defense in the league the next two seasons. Within six months he was the captain of the side helping them secure back to back top four finishes.

Maguire started 94.74% of United’s league matches in his first two years at Old Trafford – the best two year rate of any United signing since Fergie and that includes Bruno Fernandes! He’s ultimately started 63.6% of Premier League matches in the span of his six year contract, which was renewed for a seventh season this year. In the middle of that tenure Maguire had a poor season along with most of his teammates but he has a shout at being the team’s best center back in four of the six seasons he’s been here.

Despite the troubles, the changing of systems, and different managers, United continue to concede the fewest amount of goals, shots, and expected goals when Maguire is on the pitch compared to their other center backs.

When you look at the quality of opponents each of these players played against, Maguire faced the toughest opposition of them all. It’s more likely than not that Maguire will sign a team friendly extension sometime this season.

And yet, there are some people who will never ever consider the Maguire signing a good one simply because, ‘Harry Maguire never should have cost £80 million pounds’.

That transfer fee quickly became a noose tightening around Maguire’s neck. Every mistake was put under the microscope. Accomplishments were brushed away. It doesn’t matter what he did on the pitch – some people will always look at the club making a mistake for paying a record fee for a player who was not the best player in this position. It’s a very similar case for Paul Pogba.

At least United were clear that Maguire was their guy. When it comes to Antony the need for him was a lot more questionable. Like Brentford though, Ajax had just lost their manager and a bunch of players. They didn’t to sell Antony but knowing how desperate United were, they chose to only sell him on their own terms. They held out and got a record fee for Antony, who had one half decent season before exposing the signing as a colossal mistake. Most transfer fees end up being wasted money, but this is even more par for the course when it comes to the most expensive transfers.

Mbeumo should not be as expensive as Antony or Maguire but the lessons are there. United are coming at this from a position of weakness, Brentford are going not going to sell him unless they get exactly what they want.

Even if Mbeumo is the right guy for United – and I personally believe him to be a better fit for the current squad than Cunha – it’s time for United to walk away from the deal. United are supposed to have an extensive scouting network. They are supposed to have a top class recruitment team who can come up with alternate names should their primary targets not be available.

Well, it’s time to move on to the next name on the list, and the longer United stay fixated on Mbeumo the more power Brentford have. It’s starting to feel like there is no next name on the list.

Mbeumo himself wasn’t even at the top of United’s list. They turned to him when they missed out on Delap.

Last week on the Talk of the Devils podcast Athletic reporter Laurie Whitwell said something that should be sending alarm bells off for everyone. On the July 2nd episode Whitwell reported that United initially budgeted to sign Cunha at his release clause plus the £30m release clause of Liam Delap. After missing out on Delap they turned to Mbeumo who would cost more than double and therefore they’d need to figure things out.

That right there screams walk away. If you budgeted about £95 million to sign two attackers, spent £62.5 million of that on one guy, then you can’t keep shopping in the £60 million aisle. Those guys are just not your guy. You can’t overspend on two attacking players like that, it’s a path way that almost always leads to failure as it’s taking away money from addressing the other areas of your team. If that happens, you’ll very quickly see the joint price tags of Cunha and Mbeumo start to squeeze around those players’ necks.

United were hoping to generate funds through the sales of players, specifically the likes of Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Alejandro Garnacho, and Antony, but nothing has come of that yet.

Garnacho is the only one sellable but his preference of moving to a Premier League club makes things difficult. Chelsea are reportedly interested but he’s not a priority for them, so they just have to wait.

If United brass are surprised by this, that would be alarming, and they should do better to learn from the mistakes of their front office predecessors Once again United hold none of the power here. Rashford, Sancho, and Antony all earn wages that their performances do not live up to. All three have attracted interest from other clubs but none are interesting in taking on those high wages.

And why should they? United have made it clear they are desperate for these guys to leave. They have also proven that when they get desperate they will pay these players to play for other clubs – whom they have all been very successful with! If you’re one of those other clubs, what incentive do you have to get a deal done early?

History says that eventually United will get desperate and you’ll be able to get your guy without having to pay all of his wages. That makes it unlikely United are going to be bringing in the transfer fees that they had hoped for these guys. That’s going to limit the amount of players you can sign further emphasizing the need to make sure you’re maximizing every penny of your budget. If you can’t get a good deal on a guy, move on.

The Harry Maguire signing occurred during the Ed Woodward era while the Antony deal went down during the John Murtough era. Now we’re in the INEOS era but just because they haven’t made this mistake yet, doesn’t mean they can’t learn from the mistakes of others.

Brentford are not going to fold and come down on their price as the window gets closer and closer to shutting. If you don’t feel the terms they’re offering are favorable, move on. You don’t have to repeat the mistakes of the past.