Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaks during a press conference in Port Talbot. Photo Ben Birchall/PA Wire
Antony David Davies, FRSA
As Wales stands on the brink of its next Senedd election, it is hard not to be deeply unsettled by one extraordinary fact: an English nationalist party is now among the most popular political forces in our country.
Recent polls show Reform UK, the vehicle of Nigel Farage’s long project of English populism, nearly level with Plaid Cymru and ahead of Labour in some snapshots. This ought to ring alarm bells in every corner of Welsh civic life.
Reform UK is not just another right‑wing party. It is, at its heart, an English nationalist movement. From its messaging to its leadership, Reform has always advanced a distinctly English vision of sovereignty and governance, born out of Brexit fervour and stoked by frustrations largely tied to English politics.
‘British identity’
Its platforms and slogans consistently invoke a “British” identity that, in practice, is overwhelmingly rooted in English concerns. Their high-profile events, media blitzes and rally lines circle around what they see as England’s lost pride and betrayed interests, with scant recognition that Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland have their own economies, cultures and constitutional frameworks.
Even Farage has been plain over the years that his political mission is to reshape English politics — his entire brand is tied to grievances that are not grounded in the Welsh experience.
The party’s approach to devolution lays this bare. There is no serious engagement with how to strengthen Welsh self-government or adapt policy to our unique needs. If anything, their instincts point to rolling back devolved powers, or ignoring them outright as inconvenient hurdles on the path to a more tightly run British (read English) state.
That makes the latest polling all the more sobering. A Sky News survey in July put Reform on 28% in Wales — ahead of Labour and just behind Plaid. A YouGov poll in May showed them at 25%, virtually neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru.
It is an astonishing spectacle: a party whose political DNA is steeped in English nationalism is now poised to wield serious power in the Welsh Senedd. Imagine the outcry if an explicitly Welsh nationalist party were polling at 25% in England. Yet here in Wales, there is a quiet drift that could soon have profound consequences.
‘Identity politics’
Reform’s predictable response is to dismiss this as “identity politics,” to insist they simply speak for ordinary people across the UK. They would claim questioning their English orientation is unfair or somehow anti-British.
But that entirely misses the point. This is not about denying common interests across these islands; it is about recognising that Wales has distinct priorities, challenges and institutions that have evolved through devolution over the past 25 years.
Reform’s record shows little appetite to defend or deepen that Welsh democracy. Their focus is on a centralised British state run on English political terms — precisely the model Welsh devolution sought to rebalance.
It would be one thing if Reform had invested time in developing a credible economic plan for Wales. Instead, their pitch leans heavily on populist promises like reopening coal mines or reviving heavy industry without serious engagement with climate targets, market realities or the needs of a modern Welsh economy.
Their vision trades on nostalgia, offering seductive but hollow assurances to communities long failed by both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. Meanwhile, Wales’s real opportunities lie in building a green industrial future, investing in renewables and high-skill sectors that could sustain towns and rural areas alike. That demands policy seriousness — something conspicuously lacking from Reform’s proposals.
‘Very serious threat’
More troubling still is the impact a strong Reform bloc could have on our institutions. Eluned Morgan has already warned that Reform poses a “very serious threat” to Wales, while Rhun ap Iorwerth has cautioned they could undermine the very fabric of Welsh democracy.
In a Senedd designed to reflect Welsh priorities, handing power or kingmaker influence to a party fundamentally oriented toward English politics risks distorting budgets, laws and social policy away from what is best for our communities.
Yes, Wales’s more proportional electoral system offers some safeguard against outright dominance. But it is no guarantee. A recent YouGov MRP study showed that at Westminster, Reform could win 42% of seats on just 26% of the vote under first-past-the-post. Even in the Senedd, a strong Reform surge could give them leverage to extract concessions or block essential programmes — whether on healthcare, the Welsh language, or local economic support.
That should concern anyone who wants decisions about Wales to be made in Wales.
It would be wrong to dismiss why voters are tempted. Many in our valleys, towns and uplands feel abandoned after years of broken promises, economic stagnation and a political conversation that too often circles London. Reform’s blunt, anti-establishment language resonates because it names frustrations that are real.
But voting for them is not a neutral protest — it is a choice to entrust Welsh futures to a movement that does not fundamentally share Wales’s priorities or aspirations.
Former Conservatives
Many of Reform’s leading voices are former Conservatives who championed the very austerity that hollowed out local services and community infrastructure. Their sudden reinvention as populist champions deserves the sharp scrutiny Welsh voters have always been known for.
Ultimately, this is about the kind of nation we want to build. Do we deepen Welsh self-government, invest in a resilient economy, protect our language and cultural life, and ensure decisions are made close to home? Or do we hand real influence to a party whose gaze is fixed elsewhere, whose policies are steeped in English political nostalgia, and whose plans for Wales amount to little more than slogans?
This is not scaremongering — it is the sober reality of where current trends point. If we care about building a prosperous, confident Wales on our own terms, rooted in our communities and democratic institutions, we must not drift passively into an arrangement that could unpick it all. Reform UK may claim to speak plainly, but on the evidence so far, they cannot deliver the stable, future-focused, self-respecting Wales we deserve. For our country’s sake, it is time to see that clearly and act on it.
Antony David Davies FRSA is a historian of Welsh upland communities, author of Old Llyfnant Farming Families, with deep family roots in Montgomeryshire.
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