A whirlwind transfer
tussle between Liverpool and Newcastle United looks to have ended
in favour of the Premier League champions, but what will Hugo
Ekitiké bring to the Reds, and is he a good alternative to
Alexander Isak?
After a fantastic season in Germany, Hugo Ekitiké looks set to
be the next player to make a big-money move to the Premier
League. Newcastle
United appeared to be in pole position for his signature until
Liverpool
stepped up their pursuit of the 23-year-old striker from Eintracht
Frankfurt.
Liverpool’s first choice was seemingly Alexander
Isak, but with Newcastle staunch in their position that he’s
not for sale, attention was diverted to Ekitiké, the player Eddie
Howe wanted to partner their Swedish striker.
Neither club looks like having both Ekitiké and Isak in
their squad for next season, but are Liverpool really having to
settle for second best? The statistics suggest maybe not.
Tricky Beginnings
Ekitiké made his top-flight debut in France in October 2020 at
hometown club Stade de
Reims, but despite two Ligue 1 substitute
appearances in 2020-21, he had to wait nearly a year for another
first-team opportunity.
New coach Óscar García put his faith in the then 19-year-old,
gradually building up his minutes after playing him off the bench
in Reims’ opening-day draw at Nice in 2021-22.
His breakthrough season in France saw him end with a very
respectable 10 goals in 24 appearances and with one of the best
minutes-per-goal ratios in the French top flight (127).
Ekitiké’s impact on the team was clear, scoring twice as many
goals as any other player at Reims and recording a team-high 13
goal involvements, which helped him secure four of the nine Player
of the Month awards at the club in 2021-22.
Ekitiké was the obvious jewel in the Reims crown; a standout
player in an ordinary side, and this is when Newcastle’s interest
first developed. The Magpies reportedly made an offer for the
teenager, but no move materialised until he eventually chose
Paris
Saint-Germain.
That transfer began as a season-long loan in the French capital
for the 2022-23 season, with Ekitiké arriving as a relatively
inexperienced forward and trying to compete with the already
sensational talents of Kylian
Mbappé, Neymar and Lionel Messi. As a result, his playing time
was largely restricted to appearances off the bench, coming on as a
substitute in more Ligue 1 matches (13) than he started that
campaign.
With only Renato Sanches (462) playing more minutes as
substitute in Ligue 1 for PSG than Ekitiké (352) in his first
season at the club, he would have hoped to kick on in 2023-24. But
Mauricio Pochettino left as coach, and his successor, Christophe
Galtier, had other plans.
Despite his loan move being made permanent and the exits of
Neymar and Messi after 2022-23, Ekitiké’s chances at PSG almost
entirely disappeared in 2023-24, not helped by the arrivals of
Ousmane
Dembélé,
Randal Kolo Muani and Gonçalo
Ramos.
The nine minutes he played as a sub in the opening-day draw with
Lorient was the only game time Ekitiké saw in the first half of the
campaign. Eintracht Frankfurt offered him a way out and the
opportunity of a fresh start in Germany in January 2024. Taking up
that offer changed the trajectory of his career.
An Attack-Minded Monster
A relatively slow start at Eintracht saw Ekitiké gradually
integrated into Dino Toppmöller’s side. Following his signing on 1
February 2024, the youngster made just two starts and accumulated
312 minutes out of a possible 900 across his new club’s first 10
Bundesliga games after signing.
Toppmöller handed him his third league start in the home meeting
with FC Augsburg on 19 April, and everything began to click. His
four goals and five goal involvements in Frankfurt’s final five
games of the Bundesliga season from that game on were more than any
other player at the club, while nobody created more chances from
open play (7).
Since that day, only Harry
Kane (39) and Andrej
Kramaric (29) have been involved in more goals than Ekitiké’s
28 (19 goals, 9 assists) in the German top flight.
Making the move to Germany permanent ahead of 2024-25, he signed
a four-year deal with Eintracht. But both parties knew that if his
form continued how it left off in his final months on loan from
PSG, he wouldn’t be there for long.
Now, a year later, Ekitiké looks set to move to the Premier
League for a fee over three times what Eintracht paid for him. His
attacking output in 2024-25 might explain why.
At a top level, his 15 goals saw him finish as the joint-sixth
highest scorer in the Bundesliga in 2024-25, while only seven
players assisted more than his eight. Ranking joint fourth for
total goal involvements (23), he helped Eintracht secure their best
league finish in 13 years and secure qualification to the UEFA
Champions League.
He was adept at bringing teammates into play, ranking seventh
for open-play chance creation (44) in the league, but it’s his
ability to pop up in dangerous areas that was the most
eye-catching.
Across the top five European leagues in 2024-25, Ekitiké was one
of just four players to play at least 1,500 minutes and average
both more than four shots per 90 (4.1) and over seven
touches in the opposition box per 90 (7.2) alongside Lamine Yamal,
Mbappé and Dembélé – that’s certainly esteemed company to keep.
Drilling into the underlying numbers further, he has elite
attacking output when considering non-penalty xG and xG assisted,
too.
Again, only looking at players to play at least 1,500 minutes
across the top five European leagues in 2024-25, Ekitiké ranked
fifth for non-penalty xG per 90 (0.67) and among the top 50 for xG
assisted (0.24). He was higher than Isak in both metrics.
As both a threat in front of goal as well as creatively, that
placed Ekitiké among the most threatening attacking players in
European football last season.
Of attacking midfielders, wingers and forwards to play 1,500
minutes across those top five European leagues, only a select few
were able to average a higher combined non-penalty xG and xG
assisted per 90 than him (0.91).
Doubts Raised Over Finishing
Ekitiké’s knack of being able to get himself into great
positions in front of goal was clear in 2024-25, with the Frenchman
accumulating the third-highest xG total from non-penalty shots
across the top five European leagues (19.2) and ranking joint sixth
for non-penalty shots inside the box (85).
But this also had a downside, as it gave him more chances to
miss. Overall, he scored 14 goals from non-penalty shots in the
Bundesliga last season, with that underperformance (-5.2) compared
to his xG (19.2) the highest across the major European leagues.
Of the 38 players to attempt at least 80 non-penalty shots
across the top five leagues in 2024-25, his average shot quality
was among the best (0.17 – joint sixth), but he converted just
12.3% of these shots, which placed him 23rd. Comparing that to
Isak, whose average shot quality wasn’t too dissimilar (0.18) and
scored with 20% of such shots, could alarm some Liverpool fans.
It’s crucial to take these numbers with a pinch of salt,
though.
Ekitiké is young. He’s still yet to play a league game as a
23-year-old following his birthday in June, and with just 5,817
minutes of top-flight league football under his belt, he is still
refining his craft. Having the ability to train and play with elite
players at Liverpool, not to mention the guidance of Arne Slot,
could elevate his performances.
Underperformance of xG isn’t a red flag for finishing quality
unless sustained over a considerable amount of time – the same goes
for the opposite too; if someone scores a lot of goals from a
relatively low xG total over a period of one or two seasons, that
doesn’t immediately qualify them as a legendary finisher.
It’s also crucial to analyse Ekitiké’s shooting statistics with
the consideration that Eintracht were one of the most prolific
sides at attacking in transition last season. They led the
Bundesliga for shots attempted (53) and goals from (12) fast breaks
last season. The only team to post higher numbers across the top
five European leagues in 2024-25? That would be Liverpool.
The Reds had 66 shot-ending fast-breaks and scored 14 of those,
so adding a player who’s good at running with the ball seems a
no-brainer.
Ekitiké thrived in the space created while attacking in
transition at Frankfurt, and only three players across Europe’s top
five leagues had more shots following ball carries in 2024-25 than
he did (44) – Yamal (56), Mbappé (50) and Mason Greenwood (45).
Working Hard Out of
Possession
Eintracht Frankfurt weren’t a side who based their game around a
high press in the Bundesliga last season. They ranked about midway
in the competition for PPDA (opposition passes per defensive
action), while only six of the 17 other clubs made fewer high
turnovers in 2024-25.
But when they did press high up the pitch, they made it
count.
Just five teams saw a greater proportion of their high turnovers
end in shots (16.7%), and only Borussia Dortmund (3.4%) and Bayern
Munich (4.6%) had a greater share lead to goals than Eintracht
3.2%.
Based on Opta Vision data,
which combines computer vision and generative AI techniques to
provide dynamic off-ball metrics, Ekitiké played a big part in
this.
Despite many of Eintracht’s overall pressing numbers being in
the lower half of the Bundesliga, the Frenchman ranked in the top
seven players in the competition for pressures applied (both
overall and those deemed high pressure) in the opposition’s half
and final-third pressures applied (again, both overall and high
pressure).
When Eintracht did press high up the pitch, it was quite often
Ekitiké putting in the hard yards. Across all players at the club
last season, he averaged 15.3 high-intensity pressures in the final
third per 90 minutes, which was more than any teammate (Mario Götze
averaged the next most, with 12.6 per 90).
Newcastle would have been an interesting destination for
Ekitiké, as the Magpies showed similarities with Eintracht, in that
they weren’t prolific at pressing high up the pitch but were highly
efficient. For instance, only Nottingham Forest (4.3%) saw a higher
proportion of high turnovers end in a goal than they did (3.7%),
while their proportion of high turnovers ending in shots (19.5%)
was bettered by just three teams in 2024-25 – all despite tallying
the 14th-most high turnovers (241).
With Isak seemingly staying put at Newcastle, it’s clear why
Liverpool diverted their attentions to the 23-year-old French
forward. Stylistically, they are very similar.
Isak played an almost identical role in Newcastle’s press as
Ekitiké did at Eintracht last season.
Like Ekitiké, Isak was one of the most prolific final-third
pressers in the Premier League last campaign, ranking fifth overall
for final-third pressures applied and third for high-intensity
final-third pressures despite Newcastle being mid-ranking in the
Premier League as a team.
Isak averaged a team-high 19.6 high-intensity pressures per 90
in the Premier League last season, leading the way in the metric
for Newcastle, with only Anthony Gordon (15.0) averaging nearly as
many as the Swede.
Using our
Opta Player Radars, we can compare different players’ rankings
across various aspects of the game based on their position, and
produce a similarity score.
Last season, the player deemed most like Ekitiké based on their
statistical output was Isak, with an 84% similarity. If Isak was
Liverpool’s first choice then Ekitiké isn’t an unconventional
second.
What Next for Ekitiké?
Moving to Liverpool has the potential to elevate Ekitiké’s game
to the next level. His previous transfer to one of Europe’s biggest
clubs didn’t work out so well, but with 18 months of experience in
the Bundesliga at Eintracht Frankfurt under his belt, he has become
a more rounded player.
Despite winning the Premier League this season, Slot and
Liverpool have already strengthened their squad with the signings
of Milos
Kerkez, Florian
Wirtz and
Jeremie Frimpong – the latter two also from the Bundesliga.
With Federico
Chiesa’s fitness questionable at best, both Darwin
Núñez and Luis
Díaz strongly linked with departures in this transfer window,
and the tragic death of Diogo Jota, another attacking option is
needed to provide competition – and support – for Mohamed
Salah and Cody
Gakpo.
Alexander Isak seemingly won’t be that player, but Hugo Ekitiké
is about as close to him as you can get.
Enjoy this? Subscribe
to our football
newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can
also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.