Daily Gold (XAU/USD)
Price action now hinges on trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $3083.65. Holding above this level could trigger a move back toward $3111.02 and potentially a retest of $3167.84. However, a sustained move below $3083.65 and a break under Thursday’s low at $3054.19 would confirm the reversal pattern, setting up a deeper correction toward initial support at $3000.28. The 50-day moving average at $2939.52 remains a critical level, controlling the longer-term trend and acting as a potential dip-buying zone.
El-Erian Flags Rising Recession and Inflation Risks
Macro concerns continue to support the case for gold. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned Friday that the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 50%, driven by slowing growth and aggressive trade policy. He also noted that inflation expectations are increasing, with core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — posting its biggest monthly gain in over a year.
Despite markets pricing in four rate cuts, El-Erian pushed back on that view, suggesting that only one — or possibly none — may materialize. If the Fed stays restrictive while growth slows, real yields could soften, a tailwind for gold prices.
Gold Prices Forecast: Correction May Offer Buying Opportunity
While gold faces near-term technical weakness, the broader trend remains bullish. Elevated inflation, rising recession odds, and equity market stress continue to underpin the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
A pullback toward $3000 or even the 50-day MA around $2940 could present value for dip buyers. As long as gold holds above this longer-term support, the market retains upside potential, with a break above $3111.02 likely to revive bullish momentum.