A book whose title poses the intriguing question ‘The Unbroken Covenant: Could Ulster Unionists have controlled a nine-county Northern Ireland, 1920-1945?’ is being launched in Derry as part of the Maiden City Festival.

Written by historian Dr Samuel Beckton, it commemorates the centenary of the 1925 Irish Boundary Commission.

The launch is taking place in The Siege Lounge of the Memorial Hall in Bishop Street on Tuesday, August 5 at 7.00pm and admission is free.

Speaking to The Derry News, Dr Beckton said he had been writing ‘The Unbroken Covenant’ for the past decade.

“I was writing my PhD thesis on the Protestant Associations of Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Formerly Unionist Associations, they became Protestant after Partition [1921] and elected their own independent candidates in local and general elections up until 1999 / 2004. These would have included Alex Haslett in Monaghan, Major James Myles and William Sheldon in Donegal and John James Cole in Cavan.”

Dr Beckton, who is originally from Leeds in Yorkshire in England, came to Trinity College Dublin in 2015 to study International Peace Studies, where he met his wife and moved to Belfast in 2017 to study his PhD.

“Protestants in these three counties felt abandoned following partition. There was a sense of the broken covenant, referring back to the 1912 Ulster Covenant [signed by more than 470,000 in Ulster in opposition to the British Government’s Third Home Rule Bill for Ireland], he added.

“That’s why I thought ‘The Unbroken Covenant’ would be a good title for a book examining the ‘what if’ scenario – a counterfactual history – just to answer the question, ‘What could have been?’

“And there are two sides to that coin, as my book illustrates. Had things been different, the Protestants in Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan might have gotten some things they wanted but not other things.

“Unionists in those counties might have been part of the new northern state because originally the British Government wanted nine counties to ensure Irish reunification might happen much later with demographic change bringing about a peaceful resolve.

“However, the majority of Ulster Unionists decided they wanted a six county option not a nine county option.

“Now supposing they had gone for a nine county option, yes the economy would have been bigger, yes areas such as East Donegal for instance or some elements of the border counties would not have problems with tariffs going into traditional markets such as Belfast, Derry / Londonderry and Strabane.

“But it also would have meant, in the long run, with the abolition of STV [single transferable vote] voting in Northern Ireland in 1929, they would not have necessarily had that much representation in Stormont in a nine county Ulster. They might have actually had more representation, ironically, in the long run as happened in our timeline, compared to what might have happened with the change to first-past-the-post in Northern Ireland.”

Dr Samuel Beckton, author of ‘The Unbroken Covenant: Could Ulster Unionists have controlled a nine-county Northern Ireland, 1920-1945?’

Dr Beckton also postulated, when compared to the Six Counties, historically there was a “lot more healing” in the 26 Counties “compared to what happened in Northern Ireland”.

“So relations could have been much worse at the start of the Troubles compared to what we have seen,” he added.

“There are a lot of things that could have happened. I focused ‘The Unbroken Covenant’ on the years 1920 to 1945 because when you talk about counterfactual history, it is like a shotgun. When you go close range, most of the pellets will hit the target, go further away and fewer of those pellets will hit the target.

“That is the same with academic assumptions. Counterfactual history is different from alternate history because it is based on actual documents.

“I have been using census records, archives from PRONI [Public Records Office of Northern Ireland], and I have even consulted with the curator of the Museum of Free Derry,” said Dr Beckton.

Giving an opinion on the contemporary situation in the 26 Counties, Dr Beckton said people tend to be content with what they know.

“I think [the Protestants in Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan] have grown up to know what is normal. They are settled now as anyone after several generations. You are talking about something which affected their grandparents and great grandparents,” he said.

“Yes, there might be an element of disgruntlement about what happened to their ancestors but you are now talking about something which happened so many generations ago, they have moved on from it.

“I think a lot of peacebuilding has gone on, especially since the Good Friday Agreement [1998] that has definitely built a lot of bridges. In addition, there is a lot of free movement across the border, and there are a lot of North-South relations. I think things are far, far improved.”

‘The Unbroken Covenant: Could Ulster Unionists have controlled a nine-county Northern Ireland, 1920-1945?’ is published by Peter Lang and costs €37.10.