Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Our timefigure expert Graeme North analyses the key action from the Qatar Goodwood Festival including Qirat’s 150/1 success in the Sussex Stakes.

A couple of weeks ago when, discussing the Irish Oaks, I wrote about the fate of longs odds-on shots at the top level in Britain and Ireland this century and uncovered the statistic that, to that point, well over a third of the 302 horses who had started odds-on in Group 1 contests in either Britain and Ireland in that timeframe had been beaten including three of the 19 who started at 1/5 or shorter.

Oddly enough, two of that trio were trained by John Gosden and though Field Of Gold didn’t start quite that short in last week’s Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes – he was sent off 1/3 – he took his place as the newest in that surprisingly long list albeit with the an excuse that surfaced the following day that he had returned home lame.

Outsprinted by Ruling Court in the 2000 Guineas, a contest that lost Kieran Shoemark, who’d partnered the horse to success twice previously in pattern races, the ride, Field Of Gold was beaten not by one of his more fancied rivals as might have been expected given no other knowledge of events but by one of the supposed pacemakers, Qirat. He became the fourth winner this century to win a Group race in Britain at odds of 100/1 or longer and the first to achieve the feat at Group 1 level since Sole Power took the 2010 Nunthorpe, albeit Nando Parrado and Valiant Force had done similar at Group 2 level in the 2020 Coventry and the 2023 Norfolk respectively.

My colleague Patrick Jupp offered a snappy breakdown of how the latest Sussex unfolded in his Timeform Takeaway piece last Thursday. To summarise the action, Qirat established an uncontested early lead racing well within himself as the other supposed pacemaker Serengeti missed the break, didn’t go with Serengeti when he sprinted past him after two furlongs, managed a breather on the downhill section where the round course starts to approach the straight course while still enjoying an eight-length lead over the rest of the field. He then had just enough to hang on by a neck from ever-closing Rosallion, even then managing to run the last furlong according to RaceIQ faster than Field Of Gold, Docklands and Carl Spackler.

The muddling nature of the race is evident by Qirat’s winning timefigure coming in at just 99, one of seven renewals this century that have come in at under 100; not only that, but Serengeti who came home last was beaten less than six lengths and, on paper at least, still managed to reproduce the best of his previous form despite a kamikaze ride.

As is usual in scenarios such as these when the race doesn’t start in earnest until well after the traditional sectional point for taking manual sectionals has been passed, which in Goodwood’s case is four furlongs out, that point being the one nearest the line at which camera angles are consistently reliable – upgrades from that point only partly communicate what really happened.

Qirat’s finishing speed from that point was calculated by Timeform as 107.3% and Rosallion’s 110% but using the sectionals available from RaceIQ, Rosallion hit higher finishing speeds from both three furlongs out and two furlongs out. They might only be small differences but using that last three-furlong data Qirat emerges with an overall 11lb upgrade on his 99 timefigure, Rosallion a 24lb upgrade on his 98 timefigure, Henri Matisse a 18lb upgrade on his 92 timefigure and Field Of Gold (for what it’s worth) a 17lb upgrade on an 89 timefigure.

Those figures suggest that Qirat reproduced his pre-race 110 form rating, Rosallion ran 3lb below his pre-race 125, Henri Matisse ran 13lb below his pre-race 123 and Field Of Gold 26lb below his pre-race 132. It’s worth noting the winner had run a career-best just two starts previously in the seven-furlong Victoria Cup at Ascot prior to disappointing in first-time blinkers in the Hunt Cup and was defending an unbeaten record at Goodwood including a defeat last August on his previous visit to the track of Witness Stand who had landed the Group 3 Lennox Stakes on the opening day of this year’s meeting.

Enough there then to think that, all put together, Qirat ran his best race yet while Rosallion showed himself at least as good as ever and it might be that only now is he fully up to speed having missed all of 2024 after winning last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes. As for Field Of Gold and Henri Matisse, it might be the same race this year on very quick ground left its mark on them with Field Of Gold in particular having been ridden clear in a 127 timefigure even after he’d got the race sewn up not long after he’d done much the same at the Curragh in 120. That’s a more likely explanation to me of their current standing rather than the Ascot form looking weaker in hindsight than it did at the time.

Clock backs up Whirl display

Of the three odds-on shots beaten in Group 1 races at Goodwood this century before Field Of Gold, two had been in the Sussex (Dawn Approach in 2013 and Ribchester in 2017) with the other coming in the 2023 Nassau when hot favourite Blue Rose Cen not unpredictably found a heap of trouble under a rider (and a good one at that, showing how tricky the track can be) who was having his first ride at the track.

This year’s Nassau was thankfully free of trouble and saw a dominant display from Whirl, which was backed up to a large degree (and possibly even more) on the clock despite it being the second of the five races run after a torrential downpour that saw the Clerk of The Course altering the official ground overly hastily from ‘Good (Good to Firm in places)’ to ‘Heavy’ (which to his credit he later admitted was an overreaction, though not after official lengths beaten were calculated incorrectly from the result) and the second of two races on the afternoon that were run without starting stalls.

The first, the HKJC World Pool Gordon Stakes, wasn’t a perfect start but was reasonably level unlike the Nassau which saw Whirl poaching a healthy lead which she never relinquished (or looked like losing) and started to extend again come the line as she kept on strongly and those behind flagged as their efforts of making up their ground from too far behind took effect.

A 110 timefigure was a cautious one in the circumstances, though no corrections for deteriorating ground were needed from race three onwards as the rain cleared up, suggesting the deluge made its way through the surface fairly quickly, but still a very useful one and it wasn’t surprising her odds contracted significantly for the Arc afterwards for all she still has to be supplemented for that race.

The efforts of See The Fire and Bedtime Story are best overlooked; the latter was far too off the pace to ever level a significant threat and will be interesting if she gets stepped up to a mile-and-a-half on fast ground – possibly in the Yorkshire Oaks – while the former wasn’t ridden quite so far back and did make a brief late-race move and will surely be seen to something more like her best in the Juddmonte International, also at York, later in the month.

106 timefigure cautious for Merchant

Merchant, winner of the Gordon Stakes, might like Whirl have the Arc as a target too seeing as his trainer William Haggas didn’t seem keen on a tilt at the at the St Leger in a post-race interview.

As at Ascot, the three-year-old was ridden with a fair amount of restraint and, in a race that was run over approximately 13 yards short of the official distance given the field had to begin from in front of the stalls, didn’t hit the front until right on the line as he and the runner-up Wimbledon Hawkeye pulled a long way clear.

Again, a 106 timefigure is a cautious one in the context, on top of which he gets a 2lb bigger upgrade using his last two-furlong time than Wimbledon Hawkeye, all in all doing enough to think the plaudits he received for cutting down the front runners in the King Edward VII weren’t far off the mark.

After all, second in that race was subsequent Irish Derby second Serious Contender and fifth – like Merchant and Serious Contender coming from a very wide draw – was Omni Man who made a mockery of his official rating of 93 in the usually well-contested three-year-old handicap, scoring by a length and three-quarters after quickening smartly off a steady pace, enough to credit him with an extra 7lb or so over the second and third according to sectional upgrades from two furlongs out, figures that after getting added to his timefigure (84) would put him in the high teens and give him good prospects of winning Group races himself.

Another middle-distance Group horse in a handicap was the French-trained Best Secret who I was very keen on at Royal Ascot but who ended up on the inside at the back turning for home and never got competitive despite finishing strongly. Ridden in similar fashion here, an earlier switch outside and a longer straight saw him get up close home to deny the progressive Marhaba Ghaiyyath by a neck, the pair two lengths clear, with a 109 timefigure approaching 118 if a sectional upgrades from two furlongs out are factored in.

Witness Stand tops the time charts

The best bare timefigure (116) of the meeting, albeit with no upgrades, was posted by the aforementioned Witness Stand in the Lennnox. The race was a bizarre one with Noble Champion getting in the way of several of the chasing pack as he began to be pulled up after a furlong or so, notably the widely-drawn runner-up Lake Forest who ended up making his ground too quickly as he sought to neutralise his misfortune, but it was truly run for all the excuses one or two had and resulted in a career-best figure for the winner after a close call at Cheater last time.

Upgraded handicapper Jm Jungle showed his liking again for fast downhill tracks (won the Epsom Dash two starts previously) with a career-best 115 in the King George Qatar Stakes, albeit in a race in which those drawn high ended up having little chance, while the rapidly-improving John Smiths winner Fox Legacy won a conditions event in a smart 112 timefigure and will surely have his next start in a Group race too, with his last two-furlong time suggesting he’s worth 118 at least on sectionals even before the ease with which he won is factored in.

Rhoscolyn posted a 107 (marginal career best) in the Coral Golden Mile, while Gladius continues to look a horse going places and posted a 106 in another Coral sponsored handicap on the final day.

Sad to say, none of the juvenile contests stood out on time. Zavateri maintained his unbeaten record in a very messy Coral Vintage Stakes, recording a 104, which still leaves him a lot to find to strike at Group 1 level, while Coppull managed a ‘typically average these days’ 100 in the Markel Richmond Stakes and Lady Iman an ordinary 91 in the Molecomb.

A better figure at the trip at the meeting posted by a youngster was the 99 Spicy Marg recorded in the Alice Keppel – she looked twice the size of the runner-up on the television pictures – and she might now be ready to go and fulfil the promise her debut back at Newmarket in April suggested.

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

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