Opta have dropped their Premier League predictions for the 2025-26 season, including the fate of Leeds United on their return to the top flight.
The new Premier League season is nearly here and Leeds United can look ahead with excitement and trepidation.
Daniel Farke has been smart in the transfer market, targeting top-level experience and physicality with his seven new recruits to prepare his squad for the rigours of the first division.
Leeds have sorted problems with their goalkeeper, defence and central midfield but aren’t done there, with attacking flair now needed.
Farke complained that his side aren’t good enough going forward for the Premier League after the 1-1 draw with Villarreal, and a winger, playmaker and striker are all being targeted before deadline day.
Even with their smart recruitment, Leeds will have a task on their hands to survive upon their return to the top flight.
Opta have dropped their supercomputer predictions for the season and it doesn’t make for pretty reading for Leeds fans.
Photo by George Wood/Getty ImagesOpta predicts whether Leeds United can stay up in the Premier League in 2025-26
At the start of every season – and at points throughout the campaign – Opta releases predictions of the Premier League table from their supercomputer.
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The football stats supremos simulate the season 10,000 times and collect the percentage of occasions each team finishes in a certain position to make their predictions.
For the forthcoming season, Leeds are sadly predicted to finish 19th, with 16.8% of seasons seeing them end up in the lowly position, with 36 points.
In 17.8% of seasons, Leeds actually finished bottom, but Sunderland’s 34.1% trumps that and sees the Black Cats claim 20th.
Unsurprisingly, Burnley are the other team predicted to go down, with the supercomputer believing all three promoted teams will be relegated immediately for a third season running.
There was one occasion when the season ended with Ethan Ampadu lifting the Premier League trophy, but that seems unlikely.
Frustratingly for fans, Opta did correctly predict Leeds would win the Championship last season. But it said Middlesbrough would finish 2nd, so let’s hope that’s how their Leeds prediction goes next season instead.
Opta supercomputer predicted Premier League table 2025-26
Here’s how the Opta supercomputer’s predicted Premier League table looks in full:
Opta’s predictions appear fairly safe bets, with big spenders Liverpool winning the title again, followed by Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea.
Crystal Palace and Brentford finishing in the top 10, with Manchester United and Tottenham still languishing in the bottom half, are the biggest swings.
On their prediction for the three relegated sides, Opta wrote: “We can already hear you saying: ‘The three promoted teams again!’
“Yes, after only happening once in Premier League history beforehand, and not since 1997-98, the last two seasons have both seen all three promoted teams go straight back down.
“It’s too soon to say it’s now a definite issue with the gap between the top flight and the second tier, but it has inevitably led to more pressure being ramped up on the newbies.
“If fans of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are looking for hope from the supercomputer, maybe look away now. We’re afraid it is indeed backing them all to head back to the Championship.
“Or rather, it believes they are the likeliest trio.
“That said, Leeds and Burnley do still survive more often than not. Daniel Farke’s men go down in 48.1% of sims, while Scott Parker’s Clarets do so in 45.9%.
“Sunderland were somewhat surprise winners of the Championship play-offs and so are relegated the most often of all 20 teams, going down in 66.4% of simulations, but with their impressive transfer window on paper, they’ll back themselves to prove the supercomputer wrong.”