By Tony Fairbairn
- Jasmine Paolini [7] v Maria Sakkari
- Alex De Minaur [6] v Reilly Opelka
- Karolina Muchova [11] v Caroline Garcia [WC]
CINCINNATI, USA – Jasmine Paolini will battle Maria Sakkari in a bid to gain confidence and also for a spot in the third round of Cincinnati.
Jasmine Paolini [7] v Maria Sakkari H2H & Match Fundamentals
After an impressive 2024 season, Jasmine Paolini’s level has dropped in 2025 but the Italian has done well to maintain her place in the world’s top ten. A season highlight for Paolini came in front of her home fans where she won both singles and doubles titles in Rome. Since that triumph Paolini has only won six matches from five tournaments in singles and needs some confidence heading into the US Open. Now the Italian aims to find her power and consistency again to put herself back in contention for New York.
A tricky opening round awaits for Paolini in the form of a resurgent Maria Sakkari. The former top ten player was facing an exit from the world’s top 100 after a difficult year but seems to have steadied the tide recently. Some good performances from Sakkari means the Greek has a return to the world’s top 50 in her sights but will now hope for more consistent results to end the season. The question is can Sakkari raise her level to match the world’s best when it matters most?
Paolini will aim to be aggressive on return, taking advantage of any short Sakkari balls. Meanwhile, Sakkari will use the forehand to move Paolini out of position in order to create effective patterns of play inside the baseline. This will be a match that will be decided by a few points here and there with a resurgent Sakkari having more confidence to play those high risk shots that will ultimately win her the match.
Prediction: Sakkari in three sets.
Alex De Minaur [6] v Reilly Opelka H2H & Match Fundamentals
The improvement of Alex De Minaur continues as the Australian enters Cincinnati as one of the most in-form player over the American hard court swing. A miraculous comeback against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina saw De Minaur win the Washington title before the world number eight backed that up with a quarter-final run in Toronto. There are still areas that De Minaur can improve on but the resilience of the Australian can never be questioned and that will take him a long way in his bid for another deep run at the US Open.
Next up for De Minaur is big-serving American Reilly Opelka who is back into the world’s top 100 after a good season. Having been away from the tour for a long time with injury, Opelka has returned in style and has had a consistent season on all surfaces. Now the 27 year-old is entering one of his favourite times of the year as he looks to make an impact on home soil with his big serve and forehand combination doing damage. Given his poor record against De Minaur, Opelka will be keen to prove a point by causing a shock upset in Ohio to give him the platform for a deep run at the US Open.
De Minaur will use the forehand to dominate the rallies as he will aim to extend the rallies to force unforced errors from Opelka. Opelka will be dominant on serve but will need to show more quality on the baseline than he has done recently if he wants to advance to the third round here. This will be a decent test for De Minaur but the Australian should have too much consistency for Opelka and is expected to reach the third round with ease.
Prediction: De Minaur in straight sets.
Karolina Muchova [11] v Caroline Garcia [WC] H2H & Match Fundamentals
It has been a struggle for Karolina Muchova over the last few months. The injury woes have continued and a lack of confidence has formed as a result of her lack of consistent play. However, the tennis world knows what Muchova is capable of as her mix of power and variety has seen her reach a Grand Slam final before. After being close to the US Open final last year, Muchova will hope she can recapture her impressive form in Cincinnati ahead of the last Grand Slam of the season.
Standing in Muchova’s way is Caroline Garcia who will be retiring from tennis after the season has finished. The 31 year-old is a former top ten player and has given French tennis plenty of memories in the past but a poor season has seen her decide that the end is near. Now Garcia will aim to finish her career on a high and will believe that if she can bring her high-quality tennis from the past in American then she has every chance of achieving more memorable results.
Muchova will use the serve as a basis for her play as she will use a mixture of power and slice to extract errors from Garcia. Meanwhile, Garcia will use the backhand to accelerate the tempo of the rallies as she looks to finish off points at the net. This will be an intriguing match with lots of intricate shots. A lack of confidence from Muchova could inspire Garcia’s game to new heights and a memorable victory as a result.
Prediction: Garcia in three sets.
How to Watch/Follow Cincinnati 2025