Good Wednesday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.
DRIVING THE DAY
EPPIN’ HELL! Home Office officials and ministers will spend today poring over the implications of the latest court decision that blows a hole in government policy — Tuesday’s Epping asylum hotel ruling at the High Court. Keir Starmer might be finally trying to enjoy his holiday in Scotland … but the prospect of more copycat legal action is yet another problem piling up for the PM to deal with when he returns to Westminster.
Conveniently: Home Office Minister Dan Jarvis is on the morning round and will shortly have to answer loadsa questions about what the ruling means for the government’s asylum policy. He had been hoping to talk about a new returns deal with Iraq announced overnight but that has been overshadowed by the asylum hotel decision, which makes the front page of every U.K. newspaper this morning.
Spent Tuesday on a beach or in a cave? Epping Forest District Council won its High Court bid to stop asylum-seekers from being housed in Epping’s Bell Hotel — the center of protests that have attracted thousands of people, including Tory frontbenchers, since a migrant living there was charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl. The council’s lawyers argued successfully that the hotel’s owners hadn’t sought the view of the local planning authority for the building’s new use as a hotel for male migrants. Yeah, everything in Britain really does come back to planning laws.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: Increased fiscal spending, a new government, and changing foreign tariff rates are having a significant impact on the German economy. How are investors and business leaders navigating the historic moment? Listen to the conversation with Wolfgang Fink, CEO of Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE & Head of Goldman Sachs in Germany and Austria.**
Not a good day at the Home Office: Lawyers acting for Home Secretary Yvette Cooper tried to intervene in the case between the council and hotel owners at the last minute, but the judge didn’t let them. They plan to appeal. In the meantime, the department now faces the immediate practical problem of housing up to 138 asylum-seekers staying at the hotel. Then there’s the political pain the case will bring — largely, the worry that it will set a precedent for more legal challenges. Some of the government’s frustration could be seen in a Labour source-quote in the Telegraph’s write-up blaming the Tory-controlled Epping council for dredging this up.
How bad could it get? A barrister for the Home Office had argued in court that forcing the hotel to kick out asylum-seekers “would aggravate the pressures on the asylum estate” … risk the human rights of those living in the hotel … “act as an impetus for further violent protests” … and could lead to a “new norm” under which similar injunctions are sought by local councils. In other words, this could be very, very bad for the government.
New norm: The Conservative-run Broxbourne Borough Council quickly became the first authority to say it was considering whether to pursue its own injunction and would take legal advice. Nigel Farage, using the pages of the Telegraph to take a victory lap, also confirmed that the 10 councils controlled by Reform will “be doing everything in their power to follow Epping’s lead.”
Problem planning: A repeat of the planning issue which formed the crux of the case is likely on the cards in other councils, legal sources tell the Guardian’s Rajeev Syal. Any Home Office officials currently on the beach may find themselves researching English case law today.
Thank God for the complexities of English devolution: But there is some hope, from those sympathetic to the government, that the decision to bar Home Office lawyers from intervening is less likely to be reached in cases involving other local authorities, thanks to the different setups of England’s many councils and how they interact with planning boards. That, of course, does not mean government lawyers will necessarily get the result they’re after in court.
In the meantime: The continuing political sore of the small boats crisis is back in the headlines as it has been for much of the summer, and will likely stay there if more court cases materialize. Happy holidays, prime minister.
ALSO ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT: Poor old Dan Jarvis’ hopes of talking about an Iraq returns deal are also set to be crowded out by another pre-budget tax tale that makes it onto the front pages this morning. He’s about to be asked in several different ways if his government is planning a “mansion tax.”
It’s Ed Miliband’s world and we’re all living in it: Steven Swinford and George Nixon report in the Times that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering an end to a capital gains tax exemption, which lets homeowners sell their “primary” residence without paying the tax. A new threshold would be put in place to hit owners of high value properties with CGT when they sell their ‘spenny homes. While it’s not quite the annual charge on mansions once proposed by a certain ex-Labour leader, the Times is already dubbing it a mansion tax. The Treasury, obviously, said it wouldn’t comment on speculation last night.
Stats dump: More things for the chancellor to think about have also just arrived in the form of July’s ONS inflation stats, out here as Playbook went to pixel. Reeves will respond shortly, as will Pensions Minister Torsten Bell in a pool clip.
PENTAGON PLANNERS
NO BOOTS, MAYBE SOME MILITARY SUITS: Key military chiefs from across Europe’s “coalition of the willing” — including Britain’s own Tony Radakin — will assemble at the Pentagon later to hash out with America’s top generals exactly what role the U.S. will play in any security guarantees for Ukraine. Donald Trump has already ruled out putting American boots on the ground, but Europe is keen to hear about what else the U.S. could contribute.
Five-side Pentagon: Radakin’s counterparts from Germany, France, Finland and Italy joined him for dinner last night at the Fort Myer military base, near Washington, D.C., hosted by the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine. They’ll have a formal meeting in the Pentagon expected this evening U.K. time, focused on “security guarantees and peace deal monitoring,” according to one U.K. official.
Most importantly: The planning sessions at the Pentagon — which we aren’t likely to hear much about today — will be closely watched by those in the know for signs of what the U.S. is specifically willing to offer and commit to on security guarantees. What Trump’s Putin-whisperer Steve Witkoff explicitly meant by “Article-5 like” reassurances for Ukraine on Monday will be top of the list.
Also on the list … whether troops from the coalition of the willing can use and rely on U.S. bases in Europe for support and travel is one thing the allies are keen to hear about, alongside the usual ask of intelligence sharing and even the possibility of a no-fly zone. The former Trump adviser Fiona Hill, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, tells POLITICO’s Dan Bloom that CoW officials need to “clarify the degrees to which the United States is willing to support some kind of operation. And to be very clear that this is about fortifying a line.”
From a British POV … Radakin is expected to confirm to the U.S. the pledges made by Defence Secretary John Healey last week, of being happy to station British troops on the ground in Ukraine to “secure the safe skies, safe seas and to build the strength of the Ukrainian forces” as per Kiran Stacey in the Guardian. As the Guardian and Mail report, British troops are expected to focus largely on training Ukrainian forces hundreds of miles from the front line. My colleagues in Europe have more on the continent-wide negotiations here, too.
AND THEN … there’s the rumbling away in the background and fallout from Monday’s wild scenes in D.C., as ably covered by my colleague John Johnston in Tuesday’s Playbook PM and in this ace write-through from the POLITICO team. The next thing to look out for is a location for any Trump-Zelenskyy-Putin trilateral, as well as confirmation of a Zelenskyy-Putin bilateral if it comes.
A place in the Hun: Amid lots of suggested locations — Putin wants it to be in Moscow, obvs, and France and Italy have proposed Switzerland — Trump appears to favor Viktor Orbán’s Budapest, Dasha Burns and Paul McLeary report.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
SCOOP — ANOTHER CHINA VISIT: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will visit China next month to reopen long-frozen trade talks with Beijing, our trade colleagues Graham Lanktree and Caroline Hug report. Reynolds will meet with his counterpart from China’s commerce ministry in the second week of September, where the two sides are expected to sign 10 memorandums of understanding. Starmer is also set to visit China early next year. Incoming for the government from China hawks in 3, 2, 1 …
Talking of China: Today marks the deadline for Beijing to explain to Angela Rayner why parts of the blueprint it provided for a sprawling super-embassy in London were redacted. The government has to give a verdict on the proposed — and controversial — embassy by Sept. 9.
NO SPARK: More than 8,000 people have urged Ofgem to block Tesla’s plan to supply British households with electricity, PA’s Chris McKeon writes. Campaign group Best for Britain urged people to lodge complaints claiming that Tesla boss Elon Musk is not a “fit and proper” person to have “a foothold in our essential services.”
CHOO-CHOO-CHOOSE LOWER FARES: The Lib Dems argued for an urgent freeze on rail fares, ahead of today’s inflation figures expected to determine the price increase for next year. “Hiking fares yet again would be a betrayal of passengers who are simply trying to get to work, travel to school or visit family and friends,” said the party’s transport spokesperson Paul Kohler.
NOT JUST TREES THAT ARE FALLING: Ministers are using Brexit to “actively go backwards” in some areas of environmental regulation, the Institute for European Environmental Policy’s Michael Nicholson told the Guardian. Analysis by the IEEP and the paper found that the U.K. is falling behind the EU on protecting rare species, cleaning up the air and water and removing dangerous chemicals from products.
WOULD NOT RECOMMEND: Far-right activist Tommy Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, is charging up to £28 a minute for video consultations offering “expert advice” on anti-Islam activism, the Times’ Shanti Das reports.
FURTHER STAT DUMPING: As well as inflation stats, we’re also getting monthly private rent and house price data dropping here at 9.30 a.m.
STAT NON-DUMP: The Office for National Statistics stalled the publication of July’s monthly retail sales figures to allow for “further quality assurance.” It’s the latest in a series of problems that have raised questions about the quality of the agency’s figures. Read more on the FT.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: Educational inequalities in England have grown “wider and more pronounced” since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to IFG research.
BEYOND THE M25
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel is demanding Hamas release all 50 hostages it is holding in Gaza, the BBC reports, casting doubt on whether it will accept a new proposal for a 60-day ceasefire that the militant group has agreed to. Despite the demand, Israel hasn’t explicitly rejected the proposal and Reuters reported that officials are studying Hamas’ response.
Coming up: Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet is expected later this week to approve the military’s plan to occupy Gaza City, the BBC reports.
Tensions rise: Netanyahu attacked his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese as a “weak politician who betrayed Israel and abandoned Australia’s Jews,” as a diplomatic dispute about the war in Gaza escalated between Israel and Australia. The Guardian has more.
TO ME, TO YOU: More than 40,000 people have signed a petition to stop the French government lending the Bayeux Tapestry to Britain, the Times reports. The petition, started by art historian Didier Rykner, argues the existence of the fragile medieval artwork could be threatened by the exchange.
FINLAND SHAKEN BY MP’S DEATH: A 30-year-old Finnish MP, Eemeli Peltonen, was found dead in the country’s main parliament building on Tuesday, and is believed to have died by suicide. The Telegraph has a write-up.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: European equities – and German stocks specifically – have benefitted this year as investors are looking for global alternatives to the US market. But rising tariff rates and fiscal policy changes have sparked a realignment not just in geography, but in sector focus as well. In Germany, investors have been moving towards defense infrastructure, financials, and the tech sector, according to Wolfgang Fink, CEO of Goldman Sachs Bank Europe and head of Goldman Sachs Germany and Austria. Market uncertainty hasn’t stopped deal making, however. “We are seeing a lot of deals happening, though I would say in the category, more mid-sized transactions rather than large-sized transactions,” says Fink. Listen to the full conversation on Europe’s market landscape today in Goldman Sachs Exchanges.**
MEDIA ROUND
Security Minister Dan Jarvis broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Wild broadcast round: Talk (7.20 a.m.) … GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice (7.35 a.m.) … former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy Jim Townsend (7.45 a.m.) … Director of More in Common UK Luke Tryl and Conservative peer Daniel Finkelstein (8.05 a.m.) … former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov (8.35 a.m.) … Epping Forest District Council Leader Chris Whitbread (8.45 a.m.) … historian Dominic Sandbrook and former Conservative Minister Edwina Currie (9 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Lib Dem transport spokesperson Paul Kohler (7.45 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: Paul Kohler (8.20 a.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: UK business minister will travel to China to reopen trade talks in September.
Daily Express: Asylum hotel closure is ‘a victory for the mums.’
Daily Mail: Labour’s migrant hotels policy in disarray.
Daily Mirror: Brit troops ‘to keep the peace.’
Daily Star: Tipping point!
Financial Times: Trump hints at US air role in push to seal Ukraine peace.
Metro: Fury at Reeves ‘£500k wealth tax on homes.’
The Daily Telegraph: Migrant hotels facing closure.
The Guardian: High court rules asylum seekers must be moved from protest hotel.
The Independent: UK preparing to send troops to Ukraine if peace deal is struck.
The i Paper: Migrant policy in disarray as court rules protest hotel must evict asylum seekers.
The Sun: Noel: I’m so proud of Liam.
The Times: High Court puts asylum hotel policy into turmoil.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Cloudy morning changing to nice and sunny by afternoon. High 23C, low 14C.
GOING DIGITAL: A whole host of digital jobs are going at the ever-online No. 10, including chief videographer … senior content producer … video editor … and photo editor. No. 10 Head of Digital Content Alice Hodgson has all the deets.
MOVING ON: IPSOS CEO Ben Page is stepping down from his role, handing over to Jean Laurent Poitou.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Mason Boycott-Owen.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Chichester MP Jess Brown-Fuller … NHS England’s National Director for Digital Transformation Matthew Gould … New Forest West MP Desmond Swayne … DUP peer Nigel Dodds … Labour peer and former leader of the House of Lords Janet Royall … North Thanet MP Roger Gale … SNP MSP Annabelle Ewing … former No. 10 infrastructure SpAd Nick Williams … former Daily Mirror Deputy Political Editor Ben Glaze … crossbench peer and former No. 10 Policy Unit head Camilla Cavendish … South Down MP Chris Hazzard … Google exec and former Labour adviser Michaela Neild … Total Politics chief exec Mark Wallace … former Chatham House Director Robin Niblett … POLITICO’s Sanya Khetani-Shah.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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