Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s US Open first-round match between Lorenzo Musetti and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
Out-of-form Lorenzo Musetti and big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard face off in one of the most fascinating US Open first-round matches in the men’s draw.
The Italian No. 2 has struggled since retiring injured against Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open, while Mpetshi Perricard aims for his first top-10 victory on the ATP Tour in Tuesday’s encounter.
Match preview
Musetti ought to head into Tuesday as the clear favourite despite the booming serve of Mpetshi Perricard; however, a significant dip in performances and results since Roland Garros have been striking.
The 10th seed had a fantastic clay season, reaching the final of the Monte Carlo Masters and semi-finals in Madrid and Rome before the tournament in Paris, where he then advanced to the last four.
Unfortunately, though, the 23-year-old was forced to retire injured against the eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s semi-final, after winning the first set.
Since that disappointment in the French capital, Musetti has claimed just one win in five matches at Wimbledon, in Toronto and Cincinnati, highlighting his decline in form.
While he overcame facing a serve-bot in Reilly Opelka 12 months ago, Musetti entered the 2024 tournament fresh off reaching the Wimbledon semi-final and claiming the bronze medal at the Paris Olympics.
This time, there is little momentum, which should please Mpetshi Perricard ahead of Tuesday’s round-one contest, as he bids to clinch a first victory against a top-tier opponent.
The 22-year-old Frenchman nearly recorded his biggest career victory at Wimbledon in July, winning the first two sets against Taylor Fritz before losing the next three in a match suspended before the fifth set due to Wimbledon’s 11pm curfew and finished the next day.
Although the young Frenchman could only win one match across events in Washington, Canada and Cincinnati, a positive run to the semi-finals in Winston-Salem, albeit an ATP 250 event, should boost his confidence ahead of facing Musetti.
The unseeded semi-finalist’s recent run to the semi-finals in Winston-Salem marked his first time reaching this stage in any tournament on the men’s tour since making the last four in Brisbane at the start of the year, bringing his record to 13-18 in main-draw matches in 2025.
Having exited in the first round on his debut last year, Mpetshi Perricard, who lost in straight sets to Tomas Martin Etcheverry in under two hours 12 months ago, aims to capitalise on his Italian opponent’s dip in form to secure his maiden victory in New York
Head To Head
Wimbledon (2024) – Fourth round: Musetti 4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2
Stuttgart (2024) – Round of 32: Musetti 7-6(9) 7-6(9)
Musetti leads Mpetshi Perricard 2-0 in their head-to-head after claiming wins in both meetings in 2024.
Those triumphs came on the lawns of Stuttgart and Wimbledon, with the Italian claiming two tight tiebreaks in the Germany-based event and needing four sets to seal success in the fourth round in SW19.
Those wins, combined with Mpetshi Perricard’s 0-4 record against top-10 players after losses to Alcaraz in Beijing last year, Daniil Medvedev in Dubai in February, Fritz at SW19 and recently Holger Rune in Canada; three of the four defeats were in two sets.
We say: Musetti to win in five sets
Ideally, Musetti should enter Tuesday’s match as the clear favourite, but the Italian No. 2’s form after the French Open has been uncertain, giving the world No. 37 an opening.
While victory for Mpetshi Perricard would not be surprising given the higher-ranked player’s circumstances, the No. 10 seed’s superior rally tolerance should see him outlast the young Frenchman, whose shot-making consistency remains uncertain.
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