Reform UK is set to change the traditions of British politics, foreshadowing a rise in populism in the West
Deniz Gulay
Two years ago, I wrote that stagnation was the root cause of political issues in the United Kingdom. This commentary centered on the balance of powers between Westminster and the regional governments of the United Kingdom, which grows more tenuous as the prospects of Scottish independence and Irish unification are more widely discussed. However, while the question of constituent countries has persisted for as long as the United Kingdom has existed, a new and unique movement is gripping the country’s politics across election cycles.
Decades, if not centuries, of political tradition may fall and give way to a distinctly British brand of populism.
The party at the heart of this incoming revolution is Reform UK, a political party that is the vanguard of Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom. Across his 30-year career, leader Nigel Farage has consistently campaigned on a nationalistic and conservative platform against the ties between the United Kingdom and the European Union. His landmark achievement, and the prime success of the movement he created, was the exit of Great Britain from the EU in 2020.
Now, the prospect of Reform UK coming first in the next general election, thus making Farage the Prime Minister, has become far more intriguing.
The success of Reform UK is directly linked to the socioeconomic decline of Britain. Under the leadership of the Conservative Party, the United Kingdom endured a heavily controversial austerity program in response to the 2008 recession. Throughout the 14 years of conservative rule between 2010 and 2024, the British economy largely stagnated while public services faced immense shortages, and homelessness and food bank use increased.
And, as I predicted two years ago, the disillusionment fomenting within the British public has resulted in much broader attention toward unconventional politicians, with Farage at the forefront.
There should be no doubt that Reform UK is on the path to, if not very close to becoming, the victor of the next general election.
During the latest elections in 2024, Reform UK received 14 percent of the popular vote, or roughly four million votes, making it the third-highest performing party. The reason for this is abundantly clear — Britain is getting tired of the mainstream status quo, and the small yet vocal group of representatives now working in Westminster is the first sign of a larger paradigm shift in British political culture.
The power dynamic between the three “established parties” is what Reform UK needs to break apart to succeed. The Conservative Party and the Labour Party represent the two halves of the traditional right-left divide of Western political philosophy. They are complemented by the Liberal Democrats, who have emerged in the last decade as a “kingmaker” party that can influence decision-making in Westminster with their strategic presence.
However, this three-party arrangement is collectively seen by the growing number of Reform UK supporters as a stagnant, rusted tradition that prevents change. Labour’s victory in 2024 did not usher in a positive movement toward greater welfare and economic stability for Britain. The decline in the popularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer due to his perceived lack of action is now the catalyst for a potential Reform victory in 2029.
If Reform UK indeed secures first place in the next British elections, the shockwaves would be heard across not only Europe but the entire world.
One of the largest economies on Earth, and a major player in international politics, under the leadership of a uniquely nationalist party, will doubtlessly alter the entire political framework of “the West.” Simply put, a Reform UK-led United Kingdom would double down on Brexit to continue severing its ties to EU institutions and agreements. While emphasizing unity and tradition on the home front, a United Kingdom under Reform UK could drastically reduce its economic ties, political involvement and diplomatic influence on global affairs, which would therefore reduce the U.K.’s footprint as a major nation around the world.
Reform’s rise in popularity must not be crudely compared to examples from the past. Reform UK is not a mere repeat of the characteristics of Mussolini, Mosley or Franco. Instead, the party has successfully capitalized on the lack of governmental action and public dissatisfaction with the current leadership, presenting itself as a true modern alternative to a collective social malaise. This achievement must be taken seriously by academics and the electorate alike — a populist ethos can catapult movements that were on the fringe a mere decade ago into grand political success.
Politicians of mainstream ideologies, both in the United Kingdom and in other democracies, must view the rise of parties like Reform UK not as a fad but as a larger sign of change. More and more, people demand politicians who can wield the rhetoric in their favor through strong populism — the conventional right-left divide is losing its relevance for the disillusioned electorate of many countries around the world.
I do not see this as a threat on its own — instead, Reform UK is teaching us that the coming change in Western politics will be a revolution of populist, nationalist spirit. This is precisely what the political center, both left and right, must prepare to be challenged with in the future.
Deniz Gulay is a junior double-majoring in history and Russian.
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