After what turned out to be an emotional week for some in the Swiss Alps and another impressive victory for Thriston Lawrence, we move on to the K Club for the Amgen Irish Open with the tournament retaining its position in the schedule ahead of next week’s flagship event at Wentworth.

With Luke Donald having made his 6 picks for Bethpage on Monday, the Ryder Cup narrative that’s dominated the last few weeks is behind us now, although we still have some of Team Europe in attendance here this week as the players warm up for the main event at the end of the month.

World number 2 Rory McIlroy is the clear favourite for this week at around the 4/1 mark, with Ryder Cup team-mates Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry his closest challengers in the market at around 11/1 and 16/1 respectively. Patrick Reed, Tom McKibbin, Brooks Koepka and Adrian Meronk venture across from LIV alongside Hatton in what is undoubtedly a strong renewal.

Course Overview.

The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year the Palmer Course at the Kildare Hotel and Golf Club – K Club to you and me – will host the Irish Open for the third time since 2016, well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats this week

The track is a 7,441 yard par 72 located in Straffan, County Kildare a few miles west of Dublin and is a parkland course designed by Arnold Palmer that opened in 1991. Carved originally from 550 acres of beautiful Irish Countryside, the layout is a strong course for driving with water lurking on most holes, undulating fairways, and long Poa-Annua greens.

The course played host to the 2006 Ryder Cup where Ian Woosnam’s team smashed the Americans 18.5-9.5 in typically Irish weather conditions. The Palmer North Course was also the venue for the European Open between 1995-2003 and again in 2005 with the K Club’s other course, the links-style South Course, hosting the event in 2004, and 2006 and 2007.

The most relevant results though are the 2016 Irish Open won by Rory McIlroy plus the 2023 Irish Open won by Vincent Norrman, both of which hosted here on the North Course. Scoring didn’t get out of hand in either renewal with Rory’s 12-under total good enough for a 3-shot victory and Norrman’s 14-under which saw him win by a shot, so those players who can grind out a score when required may find this test to their liking.

irish open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue hosted the event in 2016 & 2023 only in the data provided: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is also available for this week’s Irish Open where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Event Winners. 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard, 22/1; 2023: Vincent Norrman, 50/1; 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Sunshine and showers is the overall summary for the four days of tournament play, with temperatures reaching around 18 Centigrade/64 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be noticeable and persistent at around 12-15 mph for the first few days before stepping up a notch on Saturday to around 20 mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:

  • 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard. 313 yards (3rd), 35.7% fairways (67th), 66.7% greens in regulation (9th), 62.5% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
  • 2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
  • 2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).

A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.

Looking at 2016 and 2023 in particular for both Rory McIlroy’s and Vincent Norrman’s wins here at the K Club, GIR was the most consistent statistic although both men also ranked inside the top 14 for Driving Distance:

  • 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).

Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 13 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.

All 13 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with eight of our last nine winners each having finished in the top four in one of their previous five starts.

A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:

  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/20/4/21/60/53/3/17
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: MC/MC/24/1/25/50/58/49
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
  • 2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
  • 2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22

Looking at the two results from the K Club in particular, McIlroy had been contending in elite company over his previous 4 outings and Norrman had won the Barbasol Championship a couple of months before, plus had shown the odd spark in his four outings since that result, so a solid case could have been made for both.

Event Form: Given the nomadic nature of this event, the mixed nature of Irish Open results for our recent winners isn’t overly surprising:

  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: 41/MC/MC
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: 61
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 10/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: 55/7
  • 2020, John Catlin: Debut
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 1/4
  • 2018, Russell Knox: 2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: Debut
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: MC/7/50/35/34/10/MC/MC/MC
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/33/MC/35/6/64/MC/45/35/30/MC/18/MC
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 49/MC/WD/16/MC/MC/10/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/13/2
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/13/21/45

The K Club’s parkland setup renders a lot of the Irish Open links-based results as interesting fact rather than useful research, however with plenty of comparable courses and results across the UK and Ireland to study – plus of course results from 2016 and 2023 here – there are still some good pointers out there for this week.