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Opposition parties make it clear they will vote against Bayrou’s government – analysis
Angelique Chrisafis
in Paris
Opposition parties from the left to the far right have made clear they will vote against the 74-year-old centrist, meaning he and his minority government would fall after only nine months in office.
A French flag flies atop the National Assembly on the day French prime minister François Bayrou seeks a confidence vote in parliament on the budget issue in Paris, France. Photograph: Abdul Saboor/Reuters
The centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, is then likely to face the challenge of appointing his third prime minister in a year, and the fifth since he began his second term in office in 2022.
As head of state with authority on foreign policy and national security, the president directly appoints a prime minister to run domestic affairs.
But after Macron called a snap parliamentary election last year, the national assembly has been divided into three blocs – left, centre and far right – with no absolute majority, creating a form of political deadlock and disagreement on the budget. This means there is no certainty that a new prime minister would be safe from a similar swift ousting.
Macron could also decide to call a new snap parliamentary election, although he has said he is reluctant to do so.
Bayrou shocked even his centrist allies by calling the surprise confidence vote, saying he needed backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce the public debt.
A long-term Macron ally, Bayrou was struggling to get support for his unpopular plan for a €44bn (£38bn) budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France’s public debt. His budget proposals, including scrapping two public holidays and freezing most welfare spending, were contested across the political spectrum.
Bayrou will make a speech to parliament on Monday afternoon appealing for support and giving his take on the state of the nation and French public debt. This will be followed by speeches from the leaders of every parliamentary grouping, before a ballot of lawmakers.
ShareOpening: Bye-rou?
It’s been a long summer of speculations about the French government’s future amid growing controversies about its plans for the country’s next budget seeking to rein in spiraling state deficit and debts.
France’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou poses in his office at the hotel Matignon, French Prime minister’s official residence, in Paris. Photograph: Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images
But it will all be clear today as the National Assembly holds a vote of confidence in François Bayrou’s embattled government. According to the declarations from the party leaders, he has little change of securing the majority required to cling on.
Bayrou would be the third prime minister to lose the post in a year, leaving the president, Emmanuel Macron, in a difficult political position and an impossible vacancy to fill. A Verian poll for Le Figaro magazine this weekend found only 15% of French people trust Macron to resolve the political crisis.
For background on how we got to this point, here is a handy explainer from our Angelique Chrisafis in Paris.
The debate is set to start at 2pm BST (3pm Paris), and the key vote is expected to be closer to 6pm BST (7pm Paris).
If everything goes as we expect it to, 74-year-old Bayrou will be gone by the evening, even if technically he will remain in post as a caretaker until his successor can be found.
One of the key questions is about Macron’s next step. Will he appoint a new, potentially younger, prime minister to have another go? Or would he dissolve the parliament and call a snap election in a hope it could resolve the current stand-off?
Let’s see. Lots for us to talk about.
It’s Monday, 8 September 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good afternoon.